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Whether or not humans end up totally extinct is irrelevant to the questions like whether nuclear war is bad and whether we should work to prevent it. However,

Whether or not humans end up totally extinct is irrelevant to the questions like whether nuclear war is bad and whether we should work to prevent it. However, the question whether or not humans end up totally extinct is relevant when comparing nuclear war with other very horrible risks, some of which do threaten total extinction. To discuss, prioritize and act on very serious (though, hopefully, unlikely to materialize) risks, we need a scale of "horribleness" that doesn't just give every serious problem a 10 out of 10. We need to reasonably prioritize our actions among many potentially dystopian risks - if consider a single one of them an negative infinity, a literal "AVOID AT ALL COSTS", then those "all costs" include increased vulnerability to other risks, and that's not appropriate.

grawprog 6y ago
What other risks are there that are directly intentionally human driven that could cause such an extreme amount of destruction, death and societal collapse over the span of a few hours?
- lopmotr 6y ago
  Meteorite strike or supervolcano eruption that we could have protected ourselves against but didn't because of resources spent on nuclear war prevention. Not sure why you added the "within a few hours" qualifier or "intentionally human driven". Have you already thought of something that takes longer, is done by humans accidentally, or is natural? Is it climate change? Does that already answer your question?
  - grawprog 6y ago
    Yeah pretty much, because there is nothing else that compares in that way. Climate change is long and drawn out, meteors and disasters are acts of nature. There is nothing else so swiftly and completely destructive that is entirely driven by humans and their choice as to whether they should destroy or not. That's the thing about nuclear war, unlike all those other things, it really comes down to a few humans deciding not to do it. That's what makes it more terrifying than those other ones.
    - lopmotr 6y ago
      The suddenness is a problem because there isn't enough time to adapt? Implying that we'll adapt to climate change? Watch out for heresy there ;) But asteroid or comet impacts. Comets in particular can come so fast and undetectably that we won't have time to react. We could prevent a comet impact if a few humans decided to build such a defense system, and we might be wiped out if those few humans decide not to do it. Sounds equivalent to nuclear war.
- ivalm 6y ago
  In near-ish future I guess deorbiting sufficiently large asteroids? In maybe further future AI and aliens.

grawprog 6y ago

What other risks are there that are directly intentionally human driven that could cause such an extreme amount of destruction, death and societal collapse over the span of a few hours?

lopmotr 6y ago
Meteorite strike or supervolcano eruption that we could have protected ourselves against but didn't because of resources spent on nuclear war prevention. Not sure why you added the "within a few hours" qualifier or "intentionally human driven". Have you already thought of something that takes longer, is done by humans accidentally, or is natural? Is it climate change? Does that already answer your question?
- grawprog 6y ago
  Yeah pretty much, because there is nothing else that compares in that way. Climate change is long and drawn out, meteors and disasters are acts of nature. There is nothing else so swiftly and completely destructive that is entirely driven by humans and their choice as to whether they should destroy or not. That's the thing about nuclear war, unlike all those other things, it really comes down to a few humans deciding not to do it. That's what makes it more terrifying than those other ones.
  - lopmotr 6y ago
    The suddenness is a problem because there isn't enough time to adapt? Implying that we'll adapt to climate change? Watch out for heresy there ;) But asteroid or comet impacts. Comets in particular can come so fast and undetectably that we won't have time to react. We could prevent a comet impact if a few humans decided to build such a defense system, and we might be wiped out if those few humans decide not to do it. Sounds equivalent to nuclear war.
ivalm 6y ago
In near-ish future I guess deorbiting sufficiently large asteroids? In maybe further future AI and aliens.