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The average time people live in care homes for elderly with extra care needs ("särskilt boende") is between six and nine months[0]. That's where most of the dea

The average time people live in care homes for elderly with extra care needs ("särskilt boende") is between six and nine months[0]. That's where most of the deaths happened at least in the spring. So most of the people in those homes would be dead now anyway, and if they died from covid or from something else while they had covid is up for debate. Edit: Maybe hospice is the best translation for särskilt boende. According to one investigation [1] among people who died outside of hospitals 15% died directly from covid, 70% had other comorbidities, and 15% died from something else while they had covid. [0] https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/2077/40037/1/gupea_2077_40037_1.pdf https://gupea.ub.gu.se/bitstream/2077/40037/1/gupea_2077_400... [1] https://lakartidningen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/08/covid-19-oftast-inte-ensam-orsak-vid-dodsfall-bland-aldre/ https://lakartidningen.se/aktuellt/nyheter/2020/08/covid-19-...

pbhjpbhj 6y ago
So, your not arguing that people didn't die from Covid19, just that you think those people weren't expected to live for much longer? The implication being we shouldn't care so much because someone died only a year earlier? It seems reasonable to create a statistical analysis based on years of expected life lost -- but that still doesn't mean people aren't dying from Covid19. Aside, slightly tangential: Back in Feb/March BMJ had some controversy about UK government hiding excess Winter deaths in flu statistics. The implication being that the gov were taking more deaths over Winter and saying it was flu when in fact the deaths were more related to poverty (no heating, little food). Next thing we know people are saying Covid19 want a problem because it wasn't even as bad as flu (though at the time is was killing far more people as a proportion of those infected). Lies and statistics, and all that.
- josephcsible 6y ago
  > So, your not arguing that people didn't die from Covid19, just that you think those people weren't expected to live for much longer? The implication being we shouldn't care so much because someone died only a year earlier? I don't think this is what they're saying. I think the point is that those people's actual times of death weren't far enough from their expected times of death given their preexisting conditions to be able to confidently say that they died of Covid, rather than just having died with it. In other words, that there's a good chance they would have died at the exact same time even without Covid.
  - pbhjpbhj 6y ago
    That's not how "cause of death" works. Doctors/Coroners don't just pick a cause randomly they look at how you died and actually investigate it if it can't be readily determined. Presumably you think doctors have always been lying about cause of death? What do you think their motivation for that is?
- sorenjan 6y ago
  I'm arguing that the comparison with AIDS that someone else made is an inaccurate one, since AIDS can shorten the life of someone that was healthy before they got it. Nobody in a hospice is healthy, and a large part of the ones that died with or by covid would have died within 30 days anyway.
  - cygx 6y ago
    If that were all there is to Covid, the excess mortality in Q2 should have been compensated by a reduction in Q3. While we do see such a reduction for Q3 in the numbers for Stockholm (which I cited in a sibling comment), it's too small to balance the tally.
    - sorenjan 6y ago
      It's not all there is to covid, but I think it's still worth observing. I mentioned in another comment that the total number of deaths in Sweden in 2020 up to November 1 is 3000 more than average the same period during 2015-2019. That's about half of the total number of official covid deaths.
cygx 6y ago
In Stockholm County in Q2, there were approx. 2209 more deaths compared to the years 2015-2019. In Q3, there were approx. 310 fewer deaths compared to that timeframe. [1] If I were a betting man, based on these numbers, I'd put my money on excess mortality once everything's been tallied, at least in that county. [1] https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/excess-mortality-in-sweden-is-followed-by-mortality-deficit/ https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/exces...
DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
> 70% had other comorbidities They still died of CoVID-19. A lot of people have heart disease, or diabetes, or are overweight, or have any number of other conditions. If they get CoVID-19 and die, you can't just write that off because they were overweight.
- sorenjan 6y ago
  It wasn't just diabetes or being overweight, the article mentions heart disease, lung disease, and dementia. Half of them were 88 years or older. They died either in their homes or in hospice. If you look at the official statistics for the whole country right now, 26% of all dead where 90 years or older, and 41% 80-89 years old. Most of them weren't just a bit out of shape, they were already sick.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    I mentioned heart disease. Heart disease is very common, and nowadays, a lot of people live productive lives despite it. If someone is managing their heart disease and living their life, and CoVID-19 comes along and kills them, that's still a tragedy.
    - sorenjan 6y ago
      If they're managing their heart disease and living their life they're not living in a hospice, which the people in that particular study did.
      - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        And yet they're still at elevated risk of death if they get CoVID-19, which they probably will if a "herd immunity" strategy is followed. The frustrating thing is that many people will then downplay their death by saying they had a comorbidity.

pbhjpbhj 6y ago

So, your not arguing that people didn't die from Covid19, just that you think those people weren't expected to live for much longer? The implication being we shouldn't care so much because someone died only a year earlier? It seems reasonable to create a statistical analysis based on years of expected life lost -- but that still doesn't mean people aren't dying from Covid19. Aside, slightly tangential: Back in Feb/March BMJ had some controversy about UK government hiding excess Winter deaths in flu statistics. The implication being that the gov were taking more deaths over Winter and saying it was flu when in fact the deaths were more related to poverty (no heating, little food). Next thing we know people are saying Covid19 want a problem because it wasn't even as bad as flu (though at the time is was killing far more people as a proportion of those infected). Lies and statistics, and all that.

josephcsible 6y ago
> So, your not arguing that people didn't die from Covid19, just that you think those people weren't expected to live for much longer? The implication being we shouldn't care so much because someone died only a year earlier? I don't think this is what they're saying. I think the point is that those people's actual times of death weren't far enough from their expected times of death given their preexisting conditions to be able to confidently say that they died of Covid, rather than just having died with it. In other words, that there's a good chance they would have died at the exact same time even without Covid.
- pbhjpbhj 6y ago
  That's not how "cause of death" works. Doctors/Coroners don't just pick a cause randomly they look at how you died and actually investigate it if it can't be readily determined. Presumably you think doctors have always been lying about cause of death? What do you think their motivation for that is?
sorenjan 6y ago
I'm arguing that the comparison with AIDS that someone else made is an inaccurate one, since AIDS can shorten the life of someone that was healthy before they got it. Nobody in a hospice is healthy, and a large part of the ones that died with or by covid would have died within 30 days anyway.
- cygx 6y ago
  If that were all there is to Covid, the excess mortality in Q2 should have been compensated by a reduction in Q3. While we do see such a reduction for Q3 in the numbers for Stockholm (which I cited in a sibling comment), it's too small to balance the tally.
  - sorenjan 6y ago
    It's not all there is to covid, but I think it's still worth observing. I mentioned in another comment that the total number of deaths in Sweden in 2020 up to November 1 is 3000 more than average the same period during 2015-2019. That's about half of the total number of official covid deaths.

cygx 6y ago

In Stockholm County in Q2, there were approx. 2209 more deaths compared to the years 2015-2019. In Q3, there were approx. 310 fewer deaths compared to that timeframe. [1] If I were a betting man, based on these numbers, I'd put my money on excess mortality once everything's been tallied, at least in that county. [1] https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/excess-mortality-in-sweden-is-followed-by-mortality-deficit/ https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-and-press-releases/exces...

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

> 70% had other comorbidities They still died of CoVID-19. A lot of people have heart disease, or diabetes, or are overweight, or have any number of other conditions. If they get CoVID-19 and die, you can't just write that off because they were overweight.

sorenjan 6y ago
It wasn't just diabetes or being overweight, the article mentions heart disease, lung disease, and dementia. Half of them were 88 years or older. They died either in their homes or in hospice. If you look at the official statistics for the whole country right now, 26% of all dead where 90 years or older, and 41% 80-89 years old. Most of them weren't just a bit out of shape, they were already sick.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  I mentioned heart disease. Heart disease is very common, and nowadays, a lot of people live productive lives despite it. If someone is managing their heart disease and living their life, and CoVID-19 comes along and kills them, that's still a tragedy.
  - sorenjan 6y ago
    If they're managing their heart disease and living their life they're not living in a hospice, which the people in that particular study did.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      And yet they're still at elevated risk of death if they get CoVID-19, which they probably will if a "herd immunity" strategy is followed. The frustrating thing is that many people will then downplay their death by saying they had a comorbidity.