8 ms·
> should I actually invest any effort into large-scale problems that occur at scales longer than my life when there are risks that are far higher around which I
by jonahx 6y ago
> should I actually invest any effort into large-scale problems that occur at scales longer than my life when there are risks that are far higher around which I can make direct changes?
Yes.
The relevant number is not p, the likelihood of the event.
It is something like:
EV = p * consequences
If the consequences are high enough (eg, death), then it is still rational to prepare for low probability events. Especially when the prep cost is low.
- dekhn 6y ago... and what we've established is that not a lot of people die in big earthquakes, but there's a lot of economic impact. I think people overweight the consequences because earthquakes are big and exciting.
- jonahx 6y agoI suppose that's fair. But I think it's less the "big and exciting" part and more the "imagining myself trapped and dying of thirst" or some such that motivates the "consequences" part of the equation.