4 ms·

That's a separate conversation, though. I agree reducing poll locations can make some people less likely to vote, but it's not in the same category as fraud.

matwood 6y ago
To commit fraud at the level required though just isn't plausible in a national election. Even in a close state like PA, we're going to end up talking about 45k+ votes. In MI, 100k+ votes, WI 20k+ votes, etc... All these states have mixes of R/Ds running things, and any fraud claims quickly ends up in grand conspiracy fallacy territory. This is not some 1000 vote situation like FL in 2000 (which was actually much more complicated than everyone paints it out to be).
- moduspol 6y ago
  Philadelphia received over 350k mail-in ballots [1]. Biden's current winning margin for the whole state is under 46k [2]. Wayne county (Michigan) received over 430k [3]. He's won Michigan by 148k [2]. In Wisconsin, the margin is just 20k [4], with the most populous county representing 459k votes. In Georgia--same kind of thing. Normally I agree with the dismissive "it's so decentralized, you couldn't do it." But it's different this year. Anyone could have predicted that the pro-Trump areas would finish counting faster, and then the pro-Biden areas would have multiple days and nights to count, all in staunchly pro-Biden areas capable of swinging the election. Of course we expected mail-in votes to lean Biden, but that doesn't mean anywhere from 51-99% indicates "no fraud." I'm not saying any fraud happened. All I'm saying is that it's not rational to presume it couldn't have happened without being detected. And it's worth some efforts to see how well we'd catch it if it were occurring. [1] https://whyy.org/articles/pa-election-2020-results-thousands-of-philly-mail-ballots-still-left-to-count/ https://whyy.org/articles/pa-election-2020-results-thousands... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/... [4] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/...
  - matwood 6y ago
    So you're arguing that absentee ballot by mail is the problem? None of the states in question did automatic mail in voting. Each voter had to apply for absentee. And given the politicization of the pandemic, Trump made it a virtue signal to vote day-of in person. So of course the absentee vote was heavily D, and it came in from heavily D areas to start. I voted absentee and honestly it felt more secure than any in person voting I've ever done. I had to apply, fill out, and then drop off my vote in a box. My wife wasn't even allowed to drop off my vote, and instead I had to do it personally. I was then able to track it online and verify it was counted without an issue. Contrast this to when I hit some buttons in person and have no idea what happens after that. The point is, you have to trust the process at some point, and in this case fraud is so unlikely across multiple states with 10s of thousands of votes.
    - moduspol 6y ago
      > So you're arguing that absentee ballot by mail is the problem? No. It's just one factor. For the rest, respectfully, you'll have to actually read my comments. Your responses haven't yet taken into account anything in my comments. It's like you saw the word "mail-in" and just typed out a response.
      - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
        Is there a small amount of fraud? It wouldn't surprise me at all to find some in every election. How about a thought experiment: If you wanted to do it on a large enough scale to swing an election, How would you do it? Say you knew that there are three states which are going to be very close, and you wanted to add 10000 votes for your preferred candidate in each state. What would you do?
        moduspol 6y ago
        Excellent question. I don't know the answer. That's why I think we need a "red team" or "bug bounty" program to investigate. How many ballots can fit in a mail truck? What does the chain of custody look like for all the different ways people can vote? What does the process look like when that chain of custody is suspected to have been broken? We've all seen how easily technological systems can be compromised through social engineering. Are there any gaps in the processes that could be exploited?
- CapricornNoble 6y ago
  20k in WI, 45k in PA.....let's call the baseline as a swing of 20,000 votes in a single state. That would be 7-20x the impact of election fraud from the Patterson, NJ election case this year (estimates range from 1,000 to 3,000 votes affected). [1] There were four men charged in that incident. [2] So with about 30-100 personnel with malicious intent, distributed across a dozen election districts, you could theoretically swing an entire state's results in the 5-figure ballot range. While this is not PROBABLE, we should acknowledge that it is POSSIBLE, and take steps to mitigate the risk accordingly. But basic enforcement of election integrity just outright sucks. Why else would someone feel so bold as to video themselves ballot harvesting and thinking it's ok?[3] [1]https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/evidence-of-massive-voter-fraud-in-paterson-election-court-records-show/ https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/evidence-of-massive-voter-f... [2]https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2020/06/25/paterson-nj-election-fraud-who-charged-and-what-we-know/3260250001/ https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2020/0... [3]https://www.twincities.com/2020/09/28/project-veritas-video-alleges-widespread-voter-fraud-in-mn-with-u-s-rep-ilhan-omar-at-head/ https://www.twincities.com/2020/09/28/project-veritas-video-...

matwood 6y ago

To commit fraud at the level required though just isn't plausible in a national election. Even in a close state like PA, we're going to end up talking about 45k+ votes. In MI, 100k+ votes, WI 20k+ votes, etc... All these states have mixes of R/Ds running things, and any fraud claims quickly ends up in grand conspiracy fallacy territory. This is not some 1000 vote situation like FL in 2000 (which was actually much more complicated than everyone paints it out to be).

moduspol 6y ago
Philadelphia received over 350k mail-in ballots [1]. Biden's current winning margin for the whole state is under 46k [2]. Wayne county (Michigan) received over 430k [3]. He's won Michigan by 148k [2]. In Wisconsin, the margin is just 20k [4], with the most populous county representing 459k votes. In Georgia--same kind of thing. Normally I agree with the dismissive "it's so decentralized, you couldn't do it." But it's different this year. Anyone could have predicted that the pro-Trump areas would finish counting faster, and then the pro-Biden areas would have multiple days and nights to count, all in staunchly pro-Biden areas capable of swinging the election. Of course we expected mail-in votes to lean Biden, but that doesn't mean anywhere from 51-99% indicates "no fraud." I'm not saying any fraud happened. All I'm saying is that it's not rational to presume it couldn't have happened without being detected. And it's worth some efforts to see how well we'd catch it if it were occurring. [1] https://whyy.org/articles/pa-election-2020-results-thousands-of-philly-mail-ballots-still-left-to-count/ https://whyy.org/articles/pa-election-2020-results-thousands... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/... [4] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/...
- matwood 6y ago
  So you're arguing that absentee ballot by mail is the problem? None of the states in question did automatic mail in voting. Each voter had to apply for absentee. And given the politicization of the pandemic, Trump made it a virtue signal to vote day-of in person. So of course the absentee vote was heavily D, and it came in from heavily D areas to start. I voted absentee and honestly it felt more secure than any in person voting I've ever done. I had to apply, fill out, and then drop off my vote in a box. My wife wasn't even allowed to drop off my vote, and instead I had to do it personally. I was then able to track it online and verify it was counted without an issue. Contrast this to when I hit some buttons in person and have no idea what happens after that. The point is, you have to trust the process at some point, and in this case fraud is so unlikely across multiple states with 10s of thousands of votes.
  - moduspol 6y ago
    > So you're arguing that absentee ballot by mail is the problem? No. It's just one factor. For the rest, respectfully, you'll have to actually read my comments. Your responses haven't yet taken into account anything in my comments. It's like you saw the word "mail-in" and just typed out a response.
    - amanaplanacanal 6y ago
      Is there a small amount of fraud? It wouldn't surprise me at all to find some in every election. How about a thought experiment: If you wanted to do it on a large enough scale to swing an election, How would you do it? Say you knew that there are three states which are going to be very close, and you wanted to add 10000 votes for your preferred candidate in each state. What would you do?
      - moduspol 6y ago
        Excellent question. I don't know the answer. That's why I think we need a "red team" or "bug bounty" program to investigate. How many ballots can fit in a mail truck? What does the chain of custody look like for all the different ways people can vote? What does the process look like when that chain of custody is suspected to have been broken? We've all seen how easily technological systems can be compromised through social engineering. Are there any gaps in the processes that could be exploited?
CapricornNoble 6y ago
20k in WI, 45k in PA.....let's call the baseline as a swing of 20,000 votes in a single state. That would be 7-20x the impact of election fraud from the Patterson, NJ election case this year (estimates range from 1,000 to 3,000 votes affected). [1] There were four men charged in that incident. [2] So with about 30-100 personnel with malicious intent, distributed across a dozen election districts, you could theoretically swing an entire state's results in the 5-figure ballot range. While this is not PROBABLE, we should acknowledge that it is POSSIBLE, and take steps to mitigate the risk accordingly. But basic enforcement of election integrity just outright sucks. Why else would someone feel so bold as to video themselves ballot harvesting and thinking it's ok?[3] [1]https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/evidence-of-massive-voter-fraud-in-paterson-election-court-records-show/ https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/evidence-of-massive-voter-f... [2]https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2020/06/25/paterson-nj-election-fraud-who-charged-and-what-we-know/3260250001/ https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2020/0... [3]https://www.twincities.com/2020/09/28/project-veritas-video-alleges-widespread-voter-fraud-in-mn-with-u-s-rep-ilhan-omar-at-head/ https://www.twincities.com/2020/09/28/project-veritas-video-...