4 ms·

The markets? Spare me. What are the markets, a handful of rich in banks and large corporations? They are neither wise nor competent, why should every news story

The markets? Spare me. What are the markets, a handful of rich in banks and large corporations? They are neither wise nor competent, why should every news story be suffixed by how "the markets" (swt) react?

mrmonkeyman 6y ago
Oh sweet summer child.
jdhzzz 6y ago
> What are the markets, a handful of rich I'm not yet but hoping to be... > They are neither wise nor competent That's me again, but doesn't preclude my success... However this 1995 paper (1) indicates that the S&P 500 behavior does "Granger Cause" changes in USA GDP. i.e changes in S&P 500 does predict changes in GDP from 1 to 3 quarters out. So that's the one legitimate reason to be encouraged by rising markets. Perhaps the woman who cuts my hair will be able to get off food stamps by spring. 1. https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?redir=1&article=1071&context=econ_honproj https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?redir=1&a...
ploika 6y ago
Since you asked, also the pension funds of almost everyone you know.
- chasd00 6y ago
  and 401ks
- zzbzq 6y ago
  retirement accounts--pensions are legacy technology
  - bluGill 6y ago
    Which is too bad. I'd rather have a pension and be assured of my income for however long I live than have to figure out how much to leave in my account for a future that I might not live to be old enough to enjoy.
TomGullen 6y ago
I'm not a vaccine expert, so when vaccine news comes out and the broader market reacts extremely positively to this news it just gives me confidence this is the real deal. There has been other vaccine news in the past which my friends/family talk about excitedly but the broader market didn't budge much. I don't see any problem in using it a general barometer for this sort of news.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
Beached 6y ago
do you not have a 401k or ira or other similar fund?
coryfklein 6y ago
Are you suggesting that the signal of the markets today has zero corellation with the promise of this vaccine? That seems like quite the position to take. Or are you lamenting that much attention is given to something that is primarily driven by wealthy organizations? I guess I might sympathize with you there.
pembrook 6y ago
> What are the markets, a handful of rich in banks and large corporations? Glad you asked. No, "the markets" are not simply a handful of rich people, banks and large corporations. The markets are also more than just "stocks." In fact, the majority of "the markets" is actually bonds, and most of those bonds are debt issued by nearly all the countries of the world (sovereign bonds). I think roughly 80 Trillion dollars, but don't quote me. If you live in a country with roads, infrastructure, buildings, etc.--then the markets are responsible for everything around you. But you seem to be complaining about stocks since they get the most media attention, so let's look at those. You may not realize it, but the future of every single country with a socialized pension system, sovereign wealth fund, etc. depends on the returns of global stocks. They make up only a portion of most pension portfolios, but deliver nearly all of the returns. Everybody has a stake in them even if they don't realize it. Are the markets all-knowing or perfectly efficient? Of course not. But it's literally the only place where you can measure how a global herd of humans are feeling about the state of the world at any given time with a single number. This makes it a default reference for journalists to cite, ie. "thing happened, this is what the humans and their algorithms collectively think about it." The journalists are often wrong and don't understand what's happening, but this case seems to be pretty straightforward.
- andrepd 6y ago
  >If you live in a country with roads, infrastructure, buildings, etc.--then the markets are responsible for everything around you. See, this kind of thing really gets to me. Here's you circa 1290: "If you live in a fiefdom with wells, irrigation, castles, etc. -- then your Lord is responsible for everything around you." See how fallacious that sounds when you transpose it this way? The central issue is that you're justifying a thing from the context of the thing itself. You're explaining modern capitalism from the framework of modern capitalism. It's circular, and you get ridiculous things like "the markets built the roads". Ahm, no, workers built the roads! >Are the markets all-knowing or perfectly efficient? Of course not. But it's literally the only place where you can measure how a global herd of humans are feeling about the state of the world at any given time with a single number. They are a weighted way of seeing how some humans are feeling about things. A number that gives as much weight to 8 guys as it does to 3.7 billion. It's a pretty shitty indicator, I'd say.
ECA_stax 6y ago
What did you mean by swt? Surely you are not making fun of Islam in a completely unrelated thread.
- andrepd 6y ago
  Obviously, I'm ironically sanctifying the term "The Market" as a rhetorical device. Replace "swt" with "hallowed be His name" if you prefer.

mrmonkeyman 6y ago

Oh sweet summer child.

jdhzzz 6y ago

> What are the markets, a handful of rich I'm not yet but hoping to be... > They are neither wise nor competent That's me again, but doesn't preclude my success... However this 1995 paper (1) indicates that the S&P 500 behavior does "Granger Cause" changes in USA GDP. i.e changes in S&P 500 does predict changes in GDP from 1 to 3 quarters out. So that's the one legitimate reason to be encouraged by rising markets. Perhaps the woman who cuts my hair will be able to get off food stamps by spring. 1. https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?redir=1&article=1071&context=econ_honproj https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?redir=1&a...

ploika 6y ago

Since you asked, also the pension funds of almost everyone you know.

chasd00 6y ago
and 401ks
zzbzq 6y ago
retirement accounts--pensions are legacy technology
- bluGill 6y ago
  Which is too bad. I'd rather have a pension and be assured of my income for however long I live than have to figure out how much to leave in my account for a future that I might not live to be old enough to enjoy.

TomGullen 6y ago

I'm not a vaccine expert, so when vaccine news comes out and the broader market reacts extremely positively to this news it just gives me confidence this is the real deal. There has been other vaccine news in the past which my friends/family talk about excitedly but the broader market didn't budge much. I don't see any problem in using it a general barometer for this sort of news.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

Beached 6y ago

do you not have a 401k or ira or other similar fund?

coryfklein 6y ago

Are you suggesting that the signal of the markets today has zero corellation with the promise of this vaccine? That seems like quite the position to take. Or are you lamenting that much attention is given to something that is primarily driven by wealthy organizations? I guess I might sympathize with you there.

pembrook 6y ago

> What are the markets, a handful of rich in banks and large corporations? Glad you asked. No, "the markets" are not simply a handful of rich people, banks and large corporations. The markets are also more than just "stocks." In fact, the majority of "the markets" is actually bonds, and most of those bonds are debt issued by nearly all the countries of the world (sovereign bonds). I think roughly 80 Trillion dollars, but don't quote me. If you live in a country with roads, infrastructure, buildings, etc.--then the markets are responsible for everything around you. But you seem to be complaining about stocks since they get the most media attention, so let's look at those. You may not realize it, but the future of every single country with a socialized pension system, sovereign wealth fund, etc. depends on the returns of global stocks. They make up only a portion of most pension portfolios, but deliver nearly all of the returns. Everybody has a stake in them even if they don't realize it. Are the markets all-knowing or perfectly efficient? Of course not. But it's literally the only place where you can measure how a global herd of humans are feeling about the state of the world at any given time with a single number. This makes it a default reference for journalists to cite, ie. "thing happened, this is what the humans and their algorithms collectively think about it." The journalists are often wrong and don't understand what's happening, but this case seems to be pretty straightforward.

andrepd 6y ago
>If you live in a country with roads, infrastructure, buildings, etc.--then the markets are responsible for everything around you. See, this kind of thing really gets to me. Here's you circa 1290: "If you live in a fiefdom with wells, irrigation, castles, etc. -- then your Lord is responsible for everything around you." See how fallacious that sounds when you transpose it this way? The central issue is that you're justifying a thing from the context of the thing itself. You're explaining modern capitalism from the framework of modern capitalism. It's circular, and you get ridiculous things like "the markets built the roads". Ahm, no, workers built the roads! >Are the markets all-knowing or perfectly efficient? Of course not. But it's literally the only place where you can measure how a global herd of humans are feeling about the state of the world at any given time with a single number. They are a weighted way of seeing how some humans are feeling about things. A number that gives as much weight to 8 guys as it does to 3.7 billion. It's a pretty shitty indicator, I'd say.

ECA_stax 6y ago

What did you mean by swt? Surely you are not making fun of Islam in a completely unrelated thread.

andrepd 6y ago
Obviously, I'm ironically sanctifying the term "The Market" as a rhetorical device. Replace "swt" with "hallowed be His name" if you prefer.