7 ms·

Completely independently of who won/will win this election, I find it massively irresponsible that media outlets are calling it before actual states are. The me

Completely independently of who won/will win this election, I find it massively irresponsible that media outlets are calling it before actual states are. The media should report the news, not make it.

tdeck 6y ago
This happens every election. States always take days or weeks to certify their results.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  The fact that it always happens doesn’t make it any better. Media announcements have real effects. We already saw this happen in 2000.
  - brown9-2 6y ago
    This is why they now wait until polls are closed.
  - lwansbrough 6y ago
    The media was not the reason why 2000 was controversial..
  - zamadatix 6y ago
    In 2000 it was bad because the call was done for something too close (hundreds of votes) that hadn't finalized and the controversy that followed was around how close that state was not that states had been called. The differences in the "close" states needed to push past 270 are nearly 100x that and multiple would need to flip to matter. The only remaining thing that's actually close to watch is how much over 270 Biden ends up with at this point.
OneTwoPetitFour 6y ago
That is an old tradition. Why should the states call a national election?
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  Because the government is made up of laws, not media corporations.
  - handmodel 6y ago
    I mean we called Trump the President-elect before the states certified results. A lot of senators and congresspeople are now marked as "Senator-elect" or "Future Governor" or whatever. I'm sorry - but it is silly to be pedantic on this. Were you saying it was bad to call Donald Trump the Republican Nominee before his convention speech? Even though it was mathematically and legally certain?
    - 7373737373 6y ago
      In life, only death and taxes are mathematically and legally certain
    - ceilingcorner 6y ago
      That’s not really a comparable situation. Right now, we are waiting on a recount in Georgia and the final results in North Carolina and Arizona, not to mention any court cases or recounts that inevitably arise. The media mostly called this because people got tired of waiting, IMO.
      - otterley 6y ago
        At this point, it is practically impossible at a statistical level that the outcome would change even if every legal avenue on Trump's wish list were granted. There is such a thing as a reasonable degree of statistical certainty, and the media have been extremely conservative this time around (compared to, say, 2000) to ensure they don't get egg on their face and retract calls. Also, there's this whole thing about "freedom of speech" that conservatives like to crow about, too.
        ceilingcorner 6y ago
Jap2-0 6y ago
I found the AP's article (who [edit: many, not nearly everyone] goes off of for race calls) to be interesting: https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-ca...
GavinMcG 6y ago
How could this possibly work? Do you want to legally bar speech with the content "We have a 99.9% confidence that X will win"?
scarmig 6y ago
The media calling the election has no legal force. In principle, they look at the results and call the election once they think it's highly unlikely that a particular candidate can lose. Sometimes that call is badly made, like Florida 2000 or, IMO, Fox calling Arizona prematurely. But it's misinforming viewers to claim that all candidates still have a chance after some point in time.
simias 6y ago
That's how it's done in most countries in Europe as well in my experience. To be clear in the end it's not what the media say that matters, it's the certified vote counts but those come in often much later. In this case I believe that some states like Alaska will be counting ballots well into next week. It makes sense to call the race once the lead is considered significant enough that the remaining ballots can't statistically change the outcome. A good counterexample in this election is Arizona, that's been called early for Biden by some outlets (AP and Fox News IIRC) but is still considered to be potentially winnable by Trump by the others. In this case it is possible that AP and Fox were a bit too trigger happy.
klank 6y ago
What if you look at "calling a race" as "reporting on the underlying mathematical trajectories based off of empirical vote evidence"? Given I believe that's an accurate description of what's involved in a news organization calling a race, they're not making the news, but reporting it, albeit in a form that makes it more palatable to the average reader.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  Yes but that isn’t the messaging here. “Biden won the election” is. If there is some kind of court challenge or recount that changes the outcome, it’s really bad for trust in the democratic system. Better to just be patient and wait - but patience is something lacking these days.
  - kasey_junk 6y ago
    This is not at all a new phenomenon. News organizations have always predicted elections before they are certified.
    - ceilingcorner 6y ago
      As I said in another comment, it wasn’t okay then, it’s not okay now.
      - kasey_junk 6y ago
        But your premise that this has something to do with peoples patience “these days” is incorrect. The AP has been calling presidential races since 1848. So perhaps you are right that this is problematic but it is neither new nor related to anything thats happened in recent history. Its hard to see why the rest of your premise is true when the rest of your assumptions are so faulty.
js2 6y ago
You must also find it massively irresponsible for Trump to state he won the election as early as Wednesday morning. Fortunately, his statements, like those of the media, aren’t how the winner is determined. Rather, all the votes are counted and then certified. The media waits until the unofficial counts are outside of the reach of recounts. Trump’s legal challenges are contradictory: he’s arguing to continue counting in states where he is behind and stop counting in states where he is ahead. It doesn’t work that way. After 2000, the media has been very conservative in waiting to call elections. In any case, they’ve twice miscalled a presidential election but it didn’t impact the ultimate winner, because at the end of the day, we follow the rule of law.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  Yes, of course it was irresponsible for Trump to do so. That has nothing to do with my comment, which is about the news media.
  - js2 6y ago
    Fair enough, I addressed that part of your comment too.

tdeck 6y ago

This happens every election. States always take days or weeks to certify their results.

ceilingcorner 6y ago
The fact that it always happens doesn’t make it any better. Media announcements have real effects. We already saw this happen in 2000.
- brown9-2 6y ago
  This is why they now wait until polls are closed.
- lwansbrough 6y ago
  The media was not the reason why 2000 was controversial..
- zamadatix 6y ago
  In 2000 it was bad because the call was done for something too close (hundreds of votes) that hadn't finalized and the controversy that followed was around how close that state was not that states had been called. The differences in the "close" states needed to push past 270 are nearly 100x that and multiple would need to flip to matter. The only remaining thing that's actually close to watch is how much over 270 Biden ends up with at this point.

OneTwoPetitFour 6y ago

That is an old tradition. Why should the states call a national election?

ceilingcorner 6y ago
Because the government is made up of laws, not media corporations.
- handmodel 6y ago
  I mean we called Trump the President-elect before the states certified results. A lot of senators and congresspeople are now marked as "Senator-elect" or "Future Governor" or whatever. I'm sorry - but it is silly to be pedantic on this. Were you saying it was bad to call Donald Trump the Republican Nominee before his convention speech? Even though it was mathematically and legally certain?
  - 7373737373 6y ago
    In life, only death and taxes are mathematically and legally certain
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    That’s not really a comparable situation. Right now, we are waiting on a recount in Georgia and the final results in North Carolina and Arizona, not to mention any court cases or recounts that inevitably arise. The media mostly called this because people got tired of waiting, IMO.
    - otterley 6y ago
      At this point, it is practically impossible at a statistical level that the outcome would change even if every legal avenue on Trump's wish list were granted. There is such a thing as a reasonable degree of statistical certainty, and the media have been extremely conservative this time around (compared to, say, 2000) to ensure they don't get egg on their face and retract calls. Also, there's this whole thing about "freedom of speech" that conservatives like to crow about, too.
      - ceilingcorner 6y ago

Jap2-0 6y ago

I found the AP's article (who [edit: many, not nearly everyone] goes off of for race calls) to be interesting: https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-ca...

GavinMcG 6y ago

How could this possibly work? Do you want to legally bar speech with the content "We have a 99.9% confidence that X will win"?

scarmig 6y ago

The media calling the election has no legal force. In principle, they look at the results and call the election once they think it's highly unlikely that a particular candidate can lose. Sometimes that call is badly made, like Florida 2000 or, IMO, Fox calling Arizona prematurely. But it's misinforming viewers to claim that all candidates still have a chance after some point in time.

simias 6y ago

That's how it's done in most countries in Europe as well in my experience. To be clear in the end it's not what the media say that matters, it's the certified vote counts but those come in often much later. In this case I believe that some states like Alaska will be counting ballots well into next week. It makes sense to call the race once the lead is considered significant enough that the remaining ballots can't statistically change the outcome. A good counterexample in this election is Arizona, that's been called early for Biden by some outlets (AP and Fox News IIRC) but is still considered to be potentially winnable by Trump by the others. In this case it is possible that AP and Fox were a bit too trigger happy.

klank 6y ago

What if you look at "calling a race" as "reporting on the underlying mathematical trajectories based off of empirical vote evidence"? Given I believe that's an accurate description of what's involved in a news organization calling a race, they're not making the news, but reporting it, albeit in a form that makes it more palatable to the average reader.

ceilingcorner 6y ago
Yes but that isn’t the messaging here. “Biden won the election” is. If there is some kind of court challenge or recount that changes the outcome, it’s really bad for trust in the democratic system. Better to just be patient and wait - but patience is something lacking these days.
- kasey_junk 6y ago
  This is not at all a new phenomenon. News organizations have always predicted elections before they are certified.
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    As I said in another comment, it wasn’t okay then, it’s not okay now.
    - kasey_junk 6y ago
      But your premise that this has something to do with peoples patience “these days” is incorrect. The AP has been calling presidential races since 1848. So perhaps you are right that this is problematic but it is neither new nor related to anything thats happened in recent history. Its hard to see why the rest of your premise is true when the rest of your assumptions are so faulty.

js2 6y ago

You must also find it massively irresponsible for Trump to state he won the election as early as Wednesday morning. Fortunately, his statements, like those of the media, aren’t how the winner is determined. Rather, all the votes are counted and then certified. The media waits until the unofficial counts are outside of the reach of recounts. Trump’s legal challenges are contradictory: he’s arguing to continue counting in states where he is behind and stop counting in states where he is ahead. It doesn’t work that way. After 2000, the media has been very conservative in waiting to call elections. In any case, they’ve twice miscalled a presidential election but it didn’t impact the ultimate winner, because at the end of the day, we follow the rule of law.

ceilingcorner 6y ago
Yes, of course it was irresponsible for Trump to do so. That has nothing to do with my comment, which is about the news media.
- js2 6y ago
  Fair enough, I addressed that part of your comment too.