4 ms·

1. Yes. This is serious. Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. 2. No. Minks are kept in small cages with a very high density of bioma

by jlouis 6y ago

1. Yes. This is serious. Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. 2. No. Minks are kept in small cages with a very high density of biomass. This makes it a perfect incubator. Also ferrets have some similarities with humans in the upper respiratory system, making this more of a concern.

ce4 6y ago
Apparently one of the upcoming vaccines in testing was already rendered ineffective by the mutation. Edit: source for the claim about the vaccine's ineffectiveness against the mutated strains in german TAZ from two weeks ago: https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/ https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/
_Microft 6y ago
Not only that, the conditions of keeping the animals close but not too close even encourages selection for mutations that allow the virus to spread more easily through air. If I remember correctly, ferrets were held under similiar conditions for "gain for function" experiments [0]. "Gain of function" means here how the virus can develop the ability (function) of spreading through the air when it e.g. initially required direct contact to be transmitted. An animal would be intentionally infected with the disease and a random mutation would allow the virus to jump to a separate cage to infect an animal there. Pretty horrible and dangerous, imo. Research on this was banned in the US for a few years, see also [0]. Edit: a small bonus comment I just thought about: here is a time lapse of development of resistance to antibiotics on a large petri dish [1]. Observe how they used increasing concentrations of antibiotics to allow stepwise improvement of resistance instead of confronting the bacterium with an unsurmountable effect all at once. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE
- napier 6y ago
  Banned in the US, but presumably outsourced to wherever else the research funding flowed to?
  - ada1981 6y ago
    It was banned but the ban was lifted a few years ago by Trump.
    - bpodgursky 6y ago
      ... at the urging of pre-pandemic Fauci Edit: It's literally true, you idiots. Stop downvoting: https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-with-millions-of-u-s-dollars-for-risky-coronavirus-research/ https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controver... https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan...
      - whyenot 6y ago
        Both links you provided appear to be for the same article, just from two different sources. There is nothing in the article about Fauci "urging" anyone to lift the ban on gain of function research. He did defend the research being done in China and the ban was lifted by NIH in December 2017, though. Also, calling people who downvoted you "idiots" is not the road towards meaningful discussion.
- ada1981 6y ago
  Yes was banned due to academic outcry, but then lifted by Trump. “Gain of Function” is often a dog whistle for bioweapons research.
  - hvidgaard 6y ago
    Why else would you actively develop bacteria and virus that spreads more?
    - ada1981 6y ago
      So, the reason given is that you have a virus that exists naturally. If we can artificially find a variant that is more lethal and or contagious (those are often the vectors that are selected for) you can then calculate the delta between the DNA of the original and the variation and make some guesses as to the likelihood that this variation will emerge naturally via mutation and then perhaps develop some sort of preventive countermeasures. Here is a good lecture by a harvard professor on risks of gain of function research: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5fe7KEkwQM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5fe7KEkwQM -- Risks and Benefits of Gain-of-Function Experiments in Potentially Pandemic Pathogens --- The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk's January 2015 Seminar, with Professor Marc Lipsitch (Harvard) and Professor Derek Smith (Cambridge). A growing trend in experimental virology has been the modification of influenza viruses that are antigenically novel to, and virulent in humans, such that these variant viruses are readily transmissible in mammals, including ferrets which are thought to be the best animal model for influenza infection. Novel, contagious, virulent viruses are potential pandemic pathogens in that their accidental or malevolent release into the human population could cause a pandemic. Professor Marc Lipsitch (Harvard) describes the purported benefits of such studies, arguing that these are overstated; estimates the magnitude of the risk they create, argues for the superiority of alternative scientific approaches on both safety and scientific grounds, and proposes an ethical framework in which such experiments should be evaluated. The talk also explore recent developments following the pause in funding for this research announced by the United States Government in October, and steps towards the risk-benefit analysis called for by the announcement. Professor Lipsitch is a professor of epidemiology and the Director of the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. He is one of the founders of the Cambridge Working group, which calls for a “quantitative, objective and credible assessment of the risks, potential benefits, and opportunities for risk mitigation” of gain of function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogen strains. A response is given by Professor Derek Smith, Professor of Infectious Disease Informatics at Cambridge University. --
- spaceman10 6y ago
  This is really interesting. I wish they would have gone the other way after. Taken the bacteria from the middle and observed how long it took to lose that anti-bacterial resistance. I am convinced that bacterial resistance is a trait, but am unconvinced of it's permanence if the utility of maintaining it is removed from the environment.
Griffinsauce 6y ago
There aren't millions upon millions of ferrets kept at this density though.
- contravariant 6y ago
  They probably meant 'minks', not ferrets, in which case there are 15 to 17 million of them in Denmark.
mschuster91 6y ago
> Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. Only on the vaccination / immunity front - the biggest problem was that there initially were no tests or lab capacities for tests, plus a total collapse of PPE stockpiles and supply. That's ... at least decently solved.
- tyre 6y ago
  Depends on where you are. The US has significantly improved testing (I work for a COVID-19 testing company) but people don't socially isolate or wear their damn masks. We had issues in the election yesterday of poll workers not wearing masks. People just don't get it, and this behavior clearly isn't "fixed" as the winter surge is well under way.
  - mcguire 6y ago
    A question: Why aren't we running randomized survey testing to determine the extent of infections?
    - gamacodre 6y ago
      Who would pay for it? Or do the work, or collate it, or publish the results? Portions of the federal government are actively hostile to fact-based public health work. The rest of it seems to be either defunded or demotivated, as opportunity allows.
      - m4rtink 6y ago
        Slovakia just tested their whole adult population with antigene tests: https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-test-entire-adult-population-for-coronavirus https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-tes... Yes, it's just a couple milion people & antigen tests are not 100% precize, but it demonstrates something like this can be done.
    - saalweachter 6y ago
      We are, sort of, when big cities test sewage.

by jlouis 6y ago

ce4 6y ago

Apparently one of the upcoming vaccines in testing was already rendered ineffective by the mutation. Edit: source for the claim about the vaccine's ineffectiveness against the mutated strains in german TAZ from two weeks ago: https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/ https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/

_Microft 6y ago

Not only that, the conditions of keeping the animals close but not too close even encourages selection for mutations that allow the virus to spread more easily through air. If I remember correctly, ferrets were held under similiar conditions for "gain for function" experiments [0]. "Gain of function" means here how the virus can develop the ability (function) of spreading through the air when it e.g. initially required direct contact to be transmitted. An animal would be intentionally infected with the disease and a random mutation would allow the virus to jump to a separate cage to infect an animal there. Pretty horrible and dangerous, imo. Research on this was banned in the US for a few years, see also [0]. Edit: a small bonus comment I just thought about: here is a time lapse of development of resistance to antibiotics on a large petri dish [1]. Observe how they used increasing concentrations of antibiotics to allow stepwise improvement of resistance instead of confronting the bacterium with an unsurmountable effect all at once. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE

napier 6y ago
Banned in the US, but presumably outsourced to wherever else the research funding flowed to?
- ada1981 6y ago
  It was banned but the ban was lifted a few years ago by Trump.
  - bpodgursky 6y ago
    ... at the urging of pre-pandemic Fauci Edit: It's literally true, you idiots. Stop downvoting: https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-with-millions-of-u-s-dollars-for-risky-coronavirus-research/ https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controver... https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan...
    - whyenot 6y ago
      Both links you provided appear to be for the same article, just from two different sources. There is nothing in the article about Fauci "urging" anyone to lift the ban on gain of function research. He did defend the research being done in China and the ban was lifted by NIH in December 2017, though. Also, calling people who downvoted you "idiots" is not the road towards meaningful discussion.
ada1981 6y ago
Yes was banned due to academic outcry, but then lifted by Trump. “Gain of Function” is often a dog whistle for bioweapons research.
- hvidgaard 6y ago
  Why else would you actively develop bacteria and virus that spreads more?
  - ada1981 6y ago
    So, the reason given is that you have a virus that exists naturally. If we can artificially find a variant that is more lethal and or contagious (those are often the vectors that are selected for) you can then calculate the delta between the DNA of the original and the variation and make some guesses as to the likelihood that this variation will emerge naturally via mutation and then perhaps develop some sort of preventive countermeasures. Here is a good lecture by a harvard professor on risks of gain of function research: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5fe7KEkwQM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5fe7KEkwQM -- Risks and Benefits of Gain-of-Function Experiments in Potentially Pandemic Pathogens --- The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk's January 2015 Seminar, with Professor Marc Lipsitch (Harvard) and Professor Derek Smith (Cambridge). A growing trend in experimental virology has been the modification of influenza viruses that are antigenically novel to, and virulent in humans, such that these variant viruses are readily transmissible in mammals, including ferrets which are thought to be the best animal model for influenza infection. Novel, contagious, virulent viruses are potential pandemic pathogens in that their accidental or malevolent release into the human population could cause a pandemic. Professor Marc Lipsitch (Harvard) describes the purported benefits of such studies, arguing that these are overstated; estimates the magnitude of the risk they create, argues for the superiority of alternative scientific approaches on both safety and scientific grounds, and proposes an ethical framework in which such experiments should be evaluated. The talk also explore recent developments following the pause in funding for this research announced by the United States Government in October, and steps towards the risk-benefit analysis called for by the announcement. Professor Lipsitch is a professor of epidemiology and the Director of the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. He is one of the founders of the Cambridge Working group, which calls for a “quantitative, objective and credible assessment of the risks, potential benefits, and opportunities for risk mitigation” of gain of function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogen strains. A response is given by Professor Derek Smith, Professor of Infectious Disease Informatics at Cambridge University. --
spaceman10 6y ago
This is really interesting. I wish they would have gone the other way after. Taken the bacteria from the middle and observed how long it took to lose that anti-bacterial resistance. I am convinced that bacterial resistance is a trait, but am unconvinced of it's permanence if the utility of maintaining it is removed from the environment.

Griffinsauce 6y ago

There aren't millions upon millions of ferrets kept at this density though.

contravariant 6y ago
They probably meant 'minks', not ferrets, in which case there are 15 to 17 million of them in Denmark.

mschuster91 6y ago

> Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. Only on the vaccination / immunity front - the biggest problem was that there initially were no tests or lab capacities for tests, plus a total collapse of PPE stockpiles and supply. That's ... at least decently solved.

tyre 6y ago
Depends on where you are. The US has significantly improved testing (I work for a COVID-19 testing company) but people don't socially isolate or wear their damn masks. We had issues in the election yesterday of poll workers not wearing masks. People just don't get it, and this behavior clearly isn't "fixed" as the winter surge is well under way.
- mcguire 6y ago
  A question: Why aren't we running randomized survey testing to determine the extent of infections?
  - gamacodre 6y ago
    Who would pay for it? Or do the work, or collate it, or publish the results? Portions of the federal government are actively hostile to fact-based public health work. The rest of it seems to be either defunded or demotivated, as opportunity allows.
    - m4rtink 6y ago
      Slovakia just tested their whole adult population with antigene tests: https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-test-entire-adult-population-for-coronavirus https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-tes... Yes, it's just a couple milion people & antigen tests are not 100% precize, but it demonstrates something like this can be done.
  - saalweachter 6y ago
    We are, sort of, when big cities test sewage.