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> Denmark, the world's biggest producer of mink fur, said Wednesday it would cull all of the country's minks after a mutated version of the new coronavirus was

> Denmark, the world's biggest producer of mink fur, said Wednesday it would cull all of the country's minks after a mutated version of the new coronavirus was detected at its mink farms and had spread to people. Questions: 1. Is this worrisome? 2. If Denmark is catching this, should we be concerned that the virus has mutated in other animals and has thus far gone undetected?

jlouis 6y ago
1. Yes. This is serious. Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. 2. No. Minks are kept in small cages with a very high density of biomass. This makes it a perfect incubator. Also ferrets have some similarities with humans in the upper respiratory system, making this more of a concern.
- ce4 6y ago
  Apparently one of the upcoming vaccines in testing was already rendered ineffective by the mutation. Edit: source for the claim about the vaccine's ineffectiveness against the mutated strains in german TAZ from two weeks ago: https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/ https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/
- _Microft 6y ago
  Not only that, the conditions of keeping the animals close but not too close even encourages selection for mutations that allow the virus to spread more easily through air. If I remember correctly, ferrets were held under similiar conditions for "gain for function" experiments [0]. "Gain of function" means here how the virus can develop the ability (function) of spreading through the air when it e.g. initially required direct contact to be transmitted. An animal would be intentionally infected with the disease and a random mutation would allow the virus to jump to a separate cage to infect an animal there. Pretty horrible and dangerous, imo. Research on this was banned in the US for a few years, see also [0]. Edit: a small bonus comment I just thought about: here is a time lapse of development of resistance to antibiotics on a large petri dish [1]. Observe how they used increasing concentrations of antibiotics to allow stepwise improvement of resistance instead of confronting the bacterium with an unsurmountable effect all at once. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE
  - napier 6y ago
    Banned in the US, but presumably outsourced to wherever else the research funding flowed to?
    - ada1981 6y ago
      It was banned but the ban was lifted a few years ago by Trump.
      - bpodgursky 6y ago
        ... at the urging of pre-pandemic Fauci Edit: It's literally true, you idiots. Stop downvoting: https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-with-millions-of-u-s-dollars-for-risky-coronavirus-research/ https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controver... https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan...
        whyenot 6y ago
        Both links you provided appear to be for the same article, just from two different sources. There is nothing in the article about Fauci "urging" anyone to lift the ban on gain of function research. He did defend the research being done in China and the ban was lifted by NIH in December 2017, though. Also, calling people who downvoted you "idiots" is not the road towards meaningful discussion.
  - ada1981 6y ago
    Yes was banned due to academic outcry, but then lifted by Trump. “Gain of Function” is often a dog whistle for bioweapons research.
    - hvidgaard 6y ago
      Why else would you actively develop bacteria and virus that spreads more?
- Griffinsauce 6y ago
  There aren't millions upon millions of ferrets kept at this density though.
  - contravariant 6y ago
    They probably meant 'minks', not ferrets, in which case there are 15 to 17 million of them in Denmark.
- mschuster91 6y ago
  > Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. Only on the vaccination / immunity front - the biggest problem was that there initially were no tests or lab capacities for tests, plus a total collapse of PPE stockpiles and supply. That's ... at least decently solved.
  - tyre 6y ago
    Depends on where you are. The US has significantly improved testing (I work for a COVID-19 testing company) but people don't socially isolate or wear their damn masks. We had issues in the election yesterday of poll workers not wearing masks. People just don't get it, and this behavior clearly isn't "fixed" as the winter surge is well under way.
    - mcguire 6y ago
      A question: Why aren't we running randomized survey testing to determine the extent of infections?
      - gamacodre 6y ago
        Who would pay for it? Or do the work, or collate it, or publish the results? Portions of the federal government are actively hostile to fact-based public health work. The rest of it seems to be either defunded or demotivated, as opportunity allows.
        m4rtink 6y ago
        Slovakia just tested their whole adult population with antigene tests: https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-test-entire-adult-population-for-coronavirus https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-tes... Yes, it's just a couple milion people & antigen tests are not 100% precize, but it demonstrates something like this can be done.
      - saalweachter 6y ago
        We are, sort of, when big cities test sewage.
spockz 6y ago
The same story has been in the Dutch news. Apparently the virus has crossed three times between human and mink. His tone is satirical but the facts check out: https://youtu.be/LOT9BTMVRUI https://youtu.be/LOT9BTMVRUI
- Griffinsauce 6y ago
  For context: this is basically the Dutch John Oliver, so not necessarily "the news" but arguably more reliable in terms of information.
mcguire 6y ago
"Coronavirus has been detected at 207 Danish mink farms, Frederiksen said." 1 or 2? Probably no big deal. 10 or 20? Worrying. 207? Yeah, the new strain is probably everywhere, or will be shortly.
- contravariant 6y ago
  Not all of those will be the new strain. The regular strain seems to be capable of infecting minks on its own, where it wreaks havoc on the tightly packed population. The problem is that this adds an entirely different evolutionary pressure that can result in a markedly different virus, which in the worst case can jump back to humans. This is that worst case.
hedora 6y ago
Most viruses breed in “reservoir” populations, then cross species with unpredictable effect. This is why we had a “bird flu” or “pig flu”, and so on. Coronaviruses cross between mammals all the time, mutate, and create new strains. This is why there is no cold vaccine (and why the flu vaccine changes each year, and is usually only 60-80% effective). So, to answer your questions: (1) It is not any more worrisome than the news we had back in March. (2) It certainly has already and will continue to mutate in other animals. Should we be concerned? I guess. I made peace with this inevitable outcome months ago. I feel sorry for the minks. I hope they don’t start testing other types of mammals and then decide to pursue wholesale eradication of local ecosystems and livestock. Doing that is clearly a non-starter (the food chain would collapse). However, it is necessary-but-not-sufficient to prevent new coronavirus strains from popping up.
- xvilka 6y ago
  > the food chain would collapse It's necessary for the world to realize breeding livestock like we do now is unsustainable. Either we go vegan, lab meat or hybrid agriculture. But the current industry is the dead end.
  - hedora 6y ago
    I wasn’t talking about an agricultural collapse. I mean the natural food chain will collapse. If you kill all the mammals, then the birds of prey will go extinct, and stuff the mammals eat will overrun what’s left. If you don’t, then the mammals will keep spreading all sorts of pandemics. For example, if you live in Silicon Valley, start feeding the squirrels in the woods near you. Eventually, they’ll give you the Bubonic Plague. The plague is not a big deal these days, thanks to antibiotics, but this is an entire hemisphere away from where it hit, and hundreds of years later. It wouldn’t surprise me if you could already catch covid from a squirrel if you tried hard enough. Apparently people catch it from bats fairly regularly, and on average, they don’t get nearly as close to humans as an average rodent would.
    - avar 6y ago

jlouis 6y ago

1. Yes. This is serious. Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. 2. No. Minks are kept in small cages with a very high density of biomass. This makes it a perfect incubator. Also ferrets have some similarities with humans in the upper respiratory system, making this more of a concern.

ce4 6y ago
Apparently one of the upcoming vaccines in testing was already rendered ineffective by the mutation. Edit: source for the claim about the vaccine's ineffectiveness against the mutated strains in german TAZ from two weeks ago: https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/ https://taz.de/Coronavirus-bei-Wildtieren/!5720096/
_Microft 6y ago
Not only that, the conditions of keeping the animals close but not too close even encourages selection for mutations that allow the virus to spread more easily through air. If I remember correctly, ferrets were held under similiar conditions for "gain for function" experiments [0]. "Gain of function" means here how the virus can develop the ability (function) of spreading through the air when it e.g. initially required direct contact to be transmitted. An animal would be intentionally infected with the disease and a random mutation would allow the virus to jump to a separate cage to infect an animal there. Pretty horrible and dangerous, imo. Research on this was banned in the US for a few years, see also [0]. Edit: a small bonus comment I just thought about: here is a time lapse of development of resistance to antibiotics on a large petri dish [1]. Observe how they used increasing concentrations of antibiotics to allow stepwise improvement of resistance instead of confronting the bacterium with an unsurmountable effect all at once. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#By_effect_on_function [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybsSqcB7mE
- napier 6y ago
  Banned in the US, but presumably outsourced to wherever else the research funding flowed to?
  - ada1981 6y ago
    It was banned but the ban was lifted a few years ago by Trump.
    - bpodgursky 6y ago
      ... at the urging of pre-pandemic Fauci Edit: It's literally true, you idiots. Stop downvoting: https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-with-millions-of-u-s-dollars-for-risky-coronavirus-research/ https://covid19data.com/2020/05/03/dr-fauci-backed-controver... https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan-lab-millions-us-dollars-risky-coronavirus-research-1500741 https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backed-controversial-wuhan...
      - whyenot 6y ago
        Both links you provided appear to be for the same article, just from two different sources. There is nothing in the article about Fauci "urging" anyone to lift the ban on gain of function research. He did defend the research being done in China and the ban was lifted by NIH in December 2017, though. Also, calling people who downvoted you "idiots" is not the road towards meaningful discussion.
- ada1981 6y ago
  Yes was banned due to academic outcry, but then lifted by Trump. “Gain of Function” is often a dog whistle for bioweapons research.
  - hvidgaard 6y ago
    Why else would you actively develop bacteria and virus that spreads more?
Griffinsauce 6y ago
There aren't millions upon millions of ferrets kept at this density though.
- contravariant 6y ago
  They probably meant 'minks', not ferrets, in which case there are 15 to 17 million of them in Denmark.
mschuster91 6y ago
> Mutation is a big red reset button on the pandemic potentially. Only on the vaccination / immunity front - the biggest problem was that there initially were no tests or lab capacities for tests, plus a total collapse of PPE stockpiles and supply. That's ... at least decently solved.
- tyre 6y ago
  Depends on where you are. The US has significantly improved testing (I work for a COVID-19 testing company) but people don't socially isolate or wear their damn masks. We had issues in the election yesterday of poll workers not wearing masks. People just don't get it, and this behavior clearly isn't "fixed" as the winter surge is well under way.
  - mcguire 6y ago
    A question: Why aren't we running randomized survey testing to determine the extent of infections?
    - gamacodre 6y ago
      Who would pay for it? Or do the work, or collate it, or publish the results? Portions of the federal government are actively hostile to fact-based public health work. The rest of it seems to be either defunded or demotivated, as opportunity allows.
      - m4rtink 6y ago
        Slovakia just tested their whole adult population with antigene tests: https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-test-entire-adult-population-for-coronavirus https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/03/slovakia-attempts-to-tes... Yes, it's just a couple milion people & antigen tests are not 100% precize, but it demonstrates something like this can be done.
    - saalweachter 6y ago
      We are, sort of, when big cities test sewage.

spockz 6y ago

The same story has been in the Dutch news. Apparently the virus has crossed three times between human and mink. His tone is satirical but the facts check out: https://youtu.be/LOT9BTMVRUI https://youtu.be/LOT9BTMVRUI

Griffinsauce 6y ago
For context: this is basically the Dutch John Oliver, so not necessarily "the news" but arguably more reliable in terms of information.

mcguire 6y ago

"Coronavirus has been detected at 207 Danish mink farms, Frederiksen said." 1 or 2? Probably no big deal. 10 or 20? Worrying. 207? Yeah, the new strain is probably everywhere, or will be shortly.

contravariant 6y ago
Not all of those will be the new strain. The regular strain seems to be capable of infecting minks on its own, where it wreaks havoc on the tightly packed population. The problem is that this adds an entirely different evolutionary pressure that can result in a markedly different virus, which in the worst case can jump back to humans. This is that worst case.

hedora 6y ago

Most viruses breed in “reservoir” populations, then cross species with unpredictable effect. This is why we had a “bird flu” or “pig flu”, and so on. Coronaviruses cross between mammals all the time, mutate, and create new strains. This is why there is no cold vaccine (and why the flu vaccine changes each year, and is usually only 60-80% effective). So, to answer your questions: (1) It is not any more worrisome than the news we had back in March. (2) It certainly has already and will continue to mutate in other animals. Should we be concerned? I guess. I made peace with this inevitable outcome months ago. I feel sorry for the minks. I hope they don’t start testing other types of mammals and then decide to pursue wholesale eradication of local ecosystems and livestock. Doing that is clearly a non-starter (the food chain would collapse). However, it is necessary-but-not-sufficient to prevent new coronavirus strains from popping up.

xvilka 6y ago
> the food chain would collapse It's necessary for the world to realize breeding livestock like we do now is unsustainable. Either we go vegan, lab meat or hybrid agriculture. But the current industry is the dead end.
- hedora 6y ago
  I wasn’t talking about an agricultural collapse. I mean the natural food chain will collapse. If you kill all the mammals, then the birds of prey will go extinct, and stuff the mammals eat will overrun what’s left. If you don’t, then the mammals will keep spreading all sorts of pandemics. For example, if you live in Silicon Valley, start feeding the squirrels in the woods near you. Eventually, they’ll give you the Bubonic Plague. The plague is not a big deal these days, thanks to antibiotics, but this is an entire hemisphere away from where it hit, and hundreds of years later. It wouldn’t surprise me if you could already catch covid from a squirrel if you tried hard enough. Apparently people catch it from bats fairly regularly, and on average, they don’t get nearly as close to humans as an average rodent would.
  - avar 6y ago