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That's incorrect. At _least_ as far back as 2016 and I believe quite a bit farther back the model was not "what if the election were today?" There even used to
by kadoban 6y ago
That's incorrect. At _least_ as far back as 2016 and I believe quite a bit farther back the model was not "what if the election were today?" There even used to be a separate side-model that was explicitly that, the "nowcast" I think it was called.
I suspect that 538 _never_ covered an election solely or even primarily with a "what if the election were today?" model, but my memory isn't that reliable back that far.
- smeeth 6y agoYou are correct, thank you. I updated another comment of mine to reflect this. Comparing them now though, Silver definitely changed the 2020 model to increase variance as a function of time to the election, which was Nassim's complaint in the first place.