3 ms·

Minor addendum, Silver altered his model to become more certain as the election drew near after 2016. In effect, it changed from a “what if the election were to

by smeeth 6y ago

Minor addendum, Silver altered his model to become more certain as the election drew near after 2016. In effect, it changed from a “what if the election were today?” Model to a “what will the outcome of the election on date ___ be?” Model just for this cycle. I can’t say why for certain, but it definitely could be that Taleb’s 2018 criticisms played a part.

kadoban 6y ago
That's incorrect. At _least_ as far back as 2016 and I believe quite a bit farther back the model was not "what if the election were today?" There even used to be a separate side-model that was explicitly that, the "nowcast" I think it was called. I suspect that 538 _never_ covered an election solely or even primarily with a "what if the election were today?" model, but my memory isn't that reliable back that far.
- smeeth 6y ago
  You are correct, thank you. I updated another comment of mine to reflect this. Comparing them now though, Silver definitely changed the 2020 model to increase variance as a function of time to the election, which was Nassim's complaint in the first place.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> Minor addendum, Silver altered his model to become more certain as the election drew near after 2016. In effect, it changed from a “what if the election were today?” Model to a “what will the outcome of the election on date ___ be?” Model just for this cycle. False. Silver's headline model has always been a “what will the outcome on election day” model. (Silver has a secondary “what of the election were held today model”, as well, which was published as an explicitly alternative model in previous cycles, with explicit notes about the difference in what it did from the main model, and is still run and occasionally referenced but not published.)

3 ms·

Minor addendum, Silver altered his model to become more certain as the election drew near after 2016. In effect, it changed from a “what if the election were to

by smeeth 6y ago

kadoban 6y ago
That's incorrect. At _least_ as far back as 2016 and I believe quite a bit farther back the model was not "what if the election were today?" There even used to be a separate side-model that was explicitly that, the "nowcast" I think it was called. I suspect that 538 _never_ covered an election solely or even primarily with a "what if the election were today?" model, but my memory isn't that reliable back that far.
- smeeth 6y ago
  You are correct, thank you. I updated another comment of mine to reflect this. Comparing them now though, Silver definitely changed the 2020 model to increase variance as a function of time to the election, which was Nassim's complaint in the first place.
dragonwriter 6y ago
> Minor addendum, Silver altered his model to become more certain as the election drew near after 2016. In effect, it changed from a “what if the election were today?” Model to a “what will the outcome of the election on date ___ be?” Model just for this cycle. False. Silver's headline model has always been a “what will the outcome on election day” model. (Silver has a secondary “what of the election were held today model”, as well, which was published as an explicitly alternative model in previous cycles, with explicit notes about the difference in what it did from the main model, and is still run and occasionally referenced but not published.)