3 ms·

That will help but it won't fix it

bigbubba 6y ago
There is no fixing it. California is made to burn, the last century or so was unusually wet but California is now returning to a more typical dry tinderbox climate. (And AGW will likely make it worse than ever before.) Californians will need to figure out how to live with the fires, or move. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_California#Paleoclimatological_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_California#P...
- gruez 6y ago
  Are there other parts of the world with a "dry tinderbox climate"? What does it look like, and how are people there dealing with it?
  - seph-reed 6y ago
    I don't think so. I'm pretty sure it's just a stage on the way to desertification. Most of Nevada would be an example of where CA is probably heading.
  - bigbubba 6y ago
    Yes, Australia and Siberia are also particularly prone to fires. Taiga biomes and Mediterranean climates in general are associated with wildfires. To be frank I don't really see how California could deal with it. The state's population ballooned during an unusually wet period; if California had not been so unusually wet during the later half of the 19th century into the 20th century, I doubt it would be so heavily populated today. Encouraging people to leave small towns and come to defensible cities is probably the most realistic 'solution.'
    - megameter 6y ago
      It should be noted that California's sprawl into fire zones is built on a mix of economic and legal incentives - development, insurance, and fire suppression all hide the true costs of living in a place that is known to burn. Malibu has burned many times, but if you can afford a good policy, you don't "lose" your wealth - thus Malibu has ended up with high-end developments.
      - pmiller2 6y ago
        Wait a second. Shouldn't the magic of the "free market" mean that fire insurance explicitly does not hide the cost of living in someplace that has a fire issue? The insurance company has to take in more than it pays out, even considering that they invest the premiums to maintain buying power, or juice profit margins a bit. In general, your premiums should be roughly equal to your risk (amount of loss, weighted by probability of loss), plus a bit to go toward the company's bottom line.
        Someone 6y ago
        I don’t think the insurance market in California is a free market. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/california-bill-bars-insurers-from-declining-fire-coverage/2237019/ https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/california-bill-b...: “Amid mounting cries of California homeowners being denied wildfire insurance in high-risk areas, lawmakers want to require insurance companies to cover all existing homes, as long as they meet new safety standards. The measure, coming after years of deadly fires causing insurers to turn down more customers, would also require insurance companies to give homeowners financial incentives for fire safety upgrades. Existing homes that meet a new state standard for “fire-hardening” would not be denied coverage under the law.” And no, I don’t think insurers will be allowed to counteract by raising premiums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Department_of_Insurance#Proposition_103_(1988) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Department_of_Insur...: “On November 8, 1988, California voters passed Proposition 103, by a narrow margin (51%), on the promise of providing consumers with a 20% rate rollback” I don’t understand how insurers still want to do business in California unless there already was something seriously wrong with the insurance market before 1988, leading to high profit margins. But frankly, I don’t understand these ballots.
  - loopz 6y ago
    If temperature keeps accellerating, most area around belt of equator is going to have increases of wildfires and firestorms, though area around poles warms up faster. Every energy increase from here on is going to be unprecedented for the past 10000 years. See David Attenborough's latest documentary on Netflix.
- JJMcJ 6y ago
  > tinderbox The summer fires in the Bay Area began with a rainless lightning storm, almost unprecedented especially in the summer, that began fires over a wide area simultaneously, followed by hot weather.
  - bigbubba 6y ago
    It's unprecedented because recorded history in California only goes back a handful of generations; ridiculously young compared to most of the world. Paleoclimatological evidence suggests that it used to be common and climate science says that it's likely to become common once again.
- andrewflnr 6y ago
  Acknowledging that is the fix. Let it happen a little bit at a time so it doesn't turn into the kind of statewide apocalyptic fire they talk about near the end of the article.

There is no fixing it. California is made to burn, the last century or so was unusually wet but California is now returning to a more typical dry tinderbox climate. (And AGW will likely make it worse than ever before.) Californians will need to figure out how to live with the fires, or move. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_California#Paleoclimatological_evidence https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_California#P...

gruez 6y ago
Are there other parts of the world with a "dry tinderbox climate"? What does it look like, and how are people there dealing with it?
- seph-reed 6y ago
  I don't think so. I'm pretty sure it's just a stage on the way to desertification. Most of Nevada would be an example of where CA is probably heading.
- bigbubba 6y ago
  Yes, Australia and Siberia are also particularly prone to fires. Taiga biomes and Mediterranean climates in general are associated with wildfires. To be frank I don't really see how California could deal with it. The state's population ballooned during an unusually wet period; if California had not been so unusually wet during the later half of the 19th century into the 20th century, I doubt it would be so heavily populated today. Encouraging people to leave small towns and come to defensible cities is probably the most realistic 'solution.'
  - megameter 6y ago
    It should be noted that California's sprawl into fire zones is built on a mix of economic and legal incentives - development, insurance, and fire suppression all hide the true costs of living in a place that is known to burn. Malibu has burned many times, but if you can afford a good policy, you don't "lose" your wealth - thus Malibu has ended up with high-end developments.
    - pmiller2 6y ago
      Wait a second. Shouldn't the magic of the "free market" mean that fire insurance explicitly does not hide the cost of living in someplace that has a fire issue? The insurance company has to take in more than it pays out, even considering that they invest the premiums to maintain buying power, or juice profit margins a bit. In general, your premiums should be roughly equal to your risk (amount of loss, weighted by probability of loss), plus a bit to go toward the company's bottom line.
      - Someone 6y ago
        I don’t think the insurance market in California is a free market. https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/california-bill-bars-insurers-from-declining-fire-coverage/2237019/ https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/california-bill-b...: “Amid mounting cries of California homeowners being denied wildfire insurance in high-risk areas, lawmakers want to require insurance companies to cover all existing homes, as long as they meet new safety standards. The measure, coming after years of deadly fires causing insurers to turn down more customers, would also require insurance companies to give homeowners financial incentives for fire safety upgrades. Existing homes that meet a new state standard for “fire-hardening” would not be denied coverage under the law.” And no, I don’t think insurers will be allowed to counteract by raising premiums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Department_of_Insurance#Proposition_103_(1988) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Department_of_Insur...: “On November 8, 1988, California voters passed Proposition 103, by a narrow margin (51%), on the promise of providing consumers with a 20% rate rollback” I don’t understand how insurers still want to do business in California unless there already was something seriously wrong with the insurance market before 1988, leading to high profit margins. But frankly, I don’t understand these ballots.
- loopz 6y ago
  If temperature keeps accellerating, most area around belt of equator is going to have increases of wildfires and firestorms, though area around poles warms up faster. Every energy increase from here on is going to be unprecedented for the past 10000 years. See David Attenborough's latest documentary on Netflix.
JJMcJ 6y ago
> tinderbox The summer fires in the Bay Area began with a rainless lightning storm, almost unprecedented especially in the summer, that began fires over a wide area simultaneously, followed by hot weather.
- bigbubba 6y ago
  It's unprecedented because recorded history in California only goes back a handful of generations; ridiculously young compared to most of the world. Paleoclimatological evidence suggests that it used to be common and climate science says that it's likely to become common once again.
andrewflnr 6y ago
Acknowledging that is the fix. Let it happen a little bit at a time so it doesn't turn into the kind of statewide apocalyptic fire they talk about near the end of the article.