4 ms·

The IFR of Covid is closer to 0.5% than to 1%. That is something we are perfectly used to: For example, Australia had a death rate of 0.63% in 2019.[1] Of cours

The IFR of Covid is closer to 0.5% than to 1%. That is something we are perfectly used to: For example, Australia had a death rate of 0.63% in 2019.[1] Of course having anyone die isn't "fine". But the death of less than 1% of the population is something we can tolerate, not some kind of disaster of unprecedented magnitude worth a lockdown causing damage we can't even foresee yet. [1] https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/deaths-australia/latest-release https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/deaths-a...

icpmacdo 6y ago
CDC's survival percentage based on the IFR per age group 0-19----99.997% 20-49---99.98% 50-69---99.5% 70+-----94.6%
- jonsno56 6y ago
  I love how you can produce statistics about survival rate but not disability rate. Because surprise, you don’t have a clue
  - anoncake 6y ago
    Exactly. There is no evidence that there is a significant disability rate, so no one can provide any.
    - jonsno56 6y ago
      You: efficient market hypothesis Also you: never invented anything
    - jonsno56 6y ago
      You should probably google myalgic encephalomyelitis and covid
      - anoncake 6y ago
        https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/09/27/dont-tell-people-to-google-it-thats-your-job-not-theirs/ https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/09/27/dont-tell-people-to...
azakai 6y ago
That number looks accurate, but I'm not sure it's the only thing to look at. First, deaths aren't the only measure. For every death there are many more people that just barely survive after a hospital stay, and data suggests a significant amount of those people will have long-term problems. Second, if the hospitals are overloaded by such people (even if most of them survive) then the IFR of Covid can rise higher than 0.5-1%.
- anoncake 6y ago
  > First, deaths aren't the only measure. For every death there are many more people that just barely survive after a hospital stay, and data suggests a significant amount of those people will have long-term problems. ...where long-term means a few months at most. People do recover, just uncomfortably slowly. > Second, if the hospitals are overloaded by such people (even if most of them survive) then the IFR of Covid can rise higher than 0.5-1%. I'm not so sure about that. These IFR estimates haven't changed much since spring, when half of those hospitalized died.[1,2,3] Our treatment methods have improved since then. If the estimates reflected the IFR with treatment, they would be lower today. So I think an IFR of 0.5-1% is actually the worst case. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any source explicitly comparing death rates with vs without treatment. [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-30992030243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... [2] https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b... [3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32234121/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32234121/
  - DanBC 6y ago
    No, the current IFR of about 1% is the best case with current treatment options. It was much higher earlier on.
    - nradov 6y ago
      No the current IFR is significantly less than 1%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

icpmacdo 6y ago

CDC's survival percentage based on the IFR per age group 0-19----99.997% 20-49---99.98% 50-69---99.5% 70+-----94.6%

jonsno56 6y ago
I love how you can produce statistics about survival rate but not disability rate. Because surprise, you don’t have a clue
- anoncake 6y ago
  Exactly. There is no evidence that there is a significant disability rate, so no one can provide any.
  - jonsno56 6y ago
    You: efficient market hypothesis Also you: never invented anything
  - jonsno56 6y ago
    You should probably google myalgic encephalomyelitis and covid
    - anoncake 6y ago
      https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/09/27/dont-tell-people-to-google-it-thats-your-job-not-theirs/ https://thelogicofscience.com/2016/09/27/dont-tell-people-to...

azakai 6y ago

That number looks accurate, but I'm not sure it's the only thing to look at. First, deaths aren't the only measure. For every death there are many more people that just barely survive after a hospital stay, and data suggests a significant amount of those people will have long-term problems. Second, if the hospitals are overloaded by such people (even if most of them survive) then the IFR of Covid can rise higher than 0.5-1%.

anoncake 6y ago
> First, deaths aren't the only measure. For every death there are many more people that just barely survive after a hospital stay, and data suggests a significant amount of those people will have long-term problems. ...where long-term means a few months at most. People do recover, just uncomfortably slowly. > Second, if the hospitals are overloaded by such people (even if most of them survive) then the IFR of Covid can rise higher than 0.5-1%. I'm not so sure about that. These IFR estimates haven't changed much since spring, when half of those hospitalized died.[1,2,3] Our treatment methods have improved since then. If the estimates reflected the IFR with treatment, they would be lower today. So I think an IFR of 0.5-1% is actually the worst case. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any source explicitly comparing death rates with vs without treatment. [1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-30992030243-7/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... [2] https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-brings-down-the-covid-19-death-rate-to-just-0-26-as-against-whos-3-4/ https://in.dental-tribune.com/news/new-estimate-by-the-cdc-b... [3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32234121/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32234121/
- DanBC 6y ago
  No, the current IFR of about 1% is the best case with current treatment options. It was much higher earlier on.
  - nradov 6y ago
    No the current IFR is significantly less than 1%. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...