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I used to think the same thing but I spent some time researching the impact of previous technological revolutions on jobs. In almost every case, more jobs end u

I used to think the same thing but I spent some time researching the impact of previous technological revolutions on jobs. In almost every case, more jobs end up being created. Sometimes, the automation allows products and services to be more widely consumed at lower prices leading to an increase in jobs. Sometimes new jobs are created that weren't possible before. Think about explaining the job of a YouTuber, Blogger or Reality Show Star to someone from 100 years ago. Sometimes these debates on automation end up in a fight over how the economy of Star Trek works when you have a machine that can materialize almost anything. That's an interesting rabbit hole to dive into when you ask if any random person could just ask for an Enterprise type starship to be instantly generated. What are the constraints in that economy that make it not possible? Energy?

macintux 6y ago
As a society, more jobs is great. As individuals, the situation may not be great: your career is gone, and now what do you do? Greeter at Walmart?
- jryle70 6y ago
  I'd argue that being a greeter at Walmart, or in general a human interaction role is exactly the role for people in an automation future. The greeter at Walmart tomorrow may also be responsible of a fleet of robots that perform cleaning duties or stock monitoring. Home and elder care may employ a lot of people in future that are assisted by robots.
  - brabel 6y ago
    I wouldn't be so sure... in Japan, these jobs are already being filled with robots :D https://www.softbankrobotics.com https://www.softbankrobotics.com
Retric 6y ago
Employment has significantly more volatility than generally assumed. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate Some of that volatility was women entering the workforce in large numbers, but when you consider every percent represents millions of people it’s shocking how long disruptions can be.
Reelin 6y ago
> I used to think the same thing but I spent some time researching the impact of previous technological revolutions on jobs. In almost every case, more jobs end up being created. Historically, yes, but I think that's a fatally flawed analysis this time around. It's important to consider the minimum skill level required by the market. Not all jobs require the same level of mental acuity. To date, automation has consistently removed lower skilled jobs and replaced them with higher skilled ones. There are obviously physical limits to that process and I am convinced that we are rapidly approaching them. Take a look through the present day cutting edge results in machine learning, remembering that today's cutting edge is tomorrow's par for the course.
- bobthepanda 6y ago
  > To date, automation has consistently removed lower skilled jobs and replaced them with higher skilled ones. I think that an equally likely outcome is that of the ATM. After the introduction of the ATM, the number of bank tellers in the US actually increased. Why? Because ATMs didn't completely eliminate the need for bank tellers, they just automated a lot of their most mundane tasks. However, ATMs did reduce the amount of tellers needed to operate a branch, which made it cheaper to open new branches. So in the end, the elimination of positions at existing branches was dwarfed by all the positions created at new bank branches that now could be operated profitably.
  - Reelin 6y ago
    > ATMs didn't completely eliminate the need for bank tellers, they just automated a lot of their most mundane tasks. That looks suspiciously similar to the process of raising the skill floor that I referred to. The simpler parts of the job were relegated to a machine while the more complicated bits remained. My point is that there are inherent limits to such a process. What happened historically (including the ATM example) ceases to be relevant once such a limit is reached. Relevant quote: "Instead of shooting where I was, you should have shot at where I was going to be." -Lrrr (to Fry) (In the ATM example, it's specifically the bits that require vision, situational awareness, and human level conversational capabilities that were retained by the human. All things that cutting edge ML is making very visible progress on. I implore you to take a serious look at the state of cutting edge ML research with such tasks in mind.)
vagrantJin 6y ago
An aside, one field where extensive AI would be appreciated is indeed research particularly in the cluster that is biochemistry and medical sciences. Instead we are using the best and brightest to solve 'hard' problems like netflix suggestions and self driving cars.

macintux 6y ago

As a society, more jobs is great. As individuals, the situation may not be great: your career is gone, and now what do you do? Greeter at Walmart?

jryle70 6y ago
I'd argue that being a greeter at Walmart, or in general a human interaction role is exactly the role for people in an automation future. The greeter at Walmart tomorrow may also be responsible of a fleet of robots that perform cleaning duties or stock monitoring. Home and elder care may employ a lot of people in future that are assisted by robots.
- brabel 6y ago
  I wouldn't be so sure... in Japan, these jobs are already being filled with robots :D https://www.softbankrobotics.com https://www.softbankrobotics.com

Retric 6y ago

Employment has significantly more volatility than generally assumed. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employment-rate Some of that volatility was women entering the workforce in large numbers, but when you consider every percent represents millions of people it’s shocking how long disruptions can be.

Reelin 6y ago

> I used to think the same thing but I spent some time researching the impact of previous technological revolutions on jobs. In almost every case, more jobs end up being created. Historically, yes, but I think that's a fatally flawed analysis this time around. It's important to consider the minimum skill level required by the market. Not all jobs require the same level of mental acuity. To date, automation has consistently removed lower skilled jobs and replaced them with higher skilled ones. There are obviously physical limits to that process and I am convinced that we are rapidly approaching them. Take a look through the present day cutting edge results in machine learning, remembering that today's cutting edge is tomorrow's par for the course.

bobthepanda 6y ago
> To date, automation has consistently removed lower skilled jobs and replaced them with higher skilled ones. I think that an equally likely outcome is that of the ATM. After the introduction of the ATM, the number of bank tellers in the US actually increased. Why? Because ATMs didn't completely eliminate the need for bank tellers, they just automated a lot of their most mundane tasks. However, ATMs did reduce the amount of tellers needed to operate a branch, which made it cheaper to open new branches. So in the end, the elimination of positions at existing branches was dwarfed by all the positions created at new bank branches that now could be operated profitably.
- Reelin 6y ago
  > ATMs didn't completely eliminate the need for bank tellers, they just automated a lot of their most mundane tasks. That looks suspiciously similar to the process of raising the skill floor that I referred to. The simpler parts of the job were relegated to a machine while the more complicated bits remained. My point is that there are inherent limits to such a process. What happened historically (including the ATM example) ceases to be relevant once such a limit is reached. Relevant quote: "Instead of shooting where I was, you should have shot at where I was going to be." -Lrrr (to Fry) (In the ATM example, it's specifically the bits that require vision, situational awareness, and human level conversational capabilities that were retained by the human. All things that cutting edge ML is making very visible progress on. I implore you to take a serious look at the state of cutting edge ML research with such tasks in mind.)

vagrantJin 6y ago

An aside, one field where extensive AI would be appreciated is indeed research particularly in the cluster that is biochemistry and medical sciences. Instead we are using the best and brightest to solve 'hard' problems like netflix suggestions and self driving cars.