5 ms·

Coronavirus antibody prevalence falling in England, REACT study shows

31 points by dfgdghdf 6y ago

niffydroid 6y ago
I took part in this test. In April/May I had a slight cough, tight chest and got breathless when walking. I had a very faint line indicating short term antibodies, then the second test I had no signs. Now if I had covid is another question. Everyone has been pretty damning of the testing system. Phone up doctors or an NHS help line, it's pretty much 'You may have mild symptoms' well how about we just do some testing yeah? I have no faith in the government stats for covid, if they're not even sending people to get tests then how on earth do they know what's really going on?
- DoingIsLearning 6y ago
  The Dutch are pretty much doing mass testing by analysing virus particles in sewage waste water. This gives you city level resolution of the virus spread and prevalence but I assume it relies on the assumption that the majority of infected people will also have detectable GI virus concentrations.
  - tomatocracy 6y ago
    The ONS in the UK has been doing some very good work tracking prevalence in the community (and because they understand the statistical processes they're using properly, they update the estimates of past prevalence too). Unfortunately the ONS data is not reported as often in the press because it's updated only weekly, whereas test and trace-based absolute numbers are reported daily even though they're close to useless for population-level or region-level analysis. Unfortunately there's no similarly reliable source aimed at understanding prevalence and spread in institutional settings I'm aware of. This is a particular concern given that institutional settings encompasses hospitals and care homes, where a large portion of the most vulnerable are.
lbeltrame 6y ago
Note that this does not mean that immunity is also fading. Antibodies don't exist all the time in the bloodstream: immunological memory (in the case of antibodies, in the form of memory B cells) is what can prompt a quick response in case of reinfection. In fact, there isn't enough data to even know how long immunity is. And let's not get started with T cell immunity, which seems to play a role with this virus and is not touched by such a study.
- zpeti 6y ago
  I am absolutely baffled at how the media is covering this study, it's basically "front page" or I've seen it as the number 1 news item. Yet this doesn't mean anything as they didn't study T-cell response, and many other things. It is absolutely ridiculous fearmongering, and clickbait, by a top university + the press. As far as I know there has been 1 reinfection case in the entire US, and that was questionable as the guy tested positive the second time a few days after testing negative, so its possible it was a false positive. 1 case, in the ENTIRE US. It is ridiculous to suggest there isn't some sort of immunity. The virus has been around for 9 months now.
  - sgt101 6y ago
    I listened to the lead of the study on the radio this morning - he certainly didn't suggest that there was "no immunity" and was careful about linking the fall in anti-bodies to immunity. I think it is clear that there is some connection though; not straightforward, but there is a link. On the other hand (as the scientist on the radio mentioned) apparently vaccines often work differently and it may be that they offer longer immunity.
  - AstralStorm 6y ago
    The bigger question is how effective the acquired immunity is, and the only way to test it would be to infect a bunch of people who test positive for antibodies or reactive T cells. Pretty dangerous. Then you'd catalogue symptoms shown by those people held in quarantine, with different innoculum doses given including placebo. Somewhat similar to a phase 3 trial of a vaccine too, you can do it at the same time.
jeofken 6y ago
Is there any better summary of reinfection cases than this one from Dutch website BNO https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-t...? 24 cases worldwide. Seems like human immune systems are very effective against this disease.
- gizmo 6y ago
  And the only person who died was a 89 year old woman on chemotherapy: > Here, we report a case of a reinfection, in an 89-year old Dutch woman, suffering from Waldenström’s acroglobulinemia, treated with B-cell-depleting therapy Of course people without a functioning immune system can get reinfected. But those aren't the kind of reinfections that are relevant when we have to consider policy/mitigation. And with close to a billion people having been infected and there being only a handful of cases of reinfection it's pretty obvious that covid immunity is strong and long-lasting.
- anoncake 6y ago
  Scared people don't care about probabilities. We have known for months that the IFR is <0.01% for people under 40 and even lower for children, youth, and young adults. Yet they still blabber that everyone is in grave danger.
  - Jeema101 6y ago
    >We have known for months that the IFR is <0.01% I don't think that's quite correct (in the US anyway), but if you have evidence otherwise feel free to share it. * 2,046 people age 35 and under have died of Covid-19 in the US as of Oct 10. [1] * People under 35 constitute 49.5% of the population in the US. [2] * An estimated 9.3% of the population has antibodies as of September [3] 330,00,000 x .49.5 x .093 = 15.2 million people in the < 35 year old age group infected as of September. Maybe 16.7 million now with the increase in cases since then, so: .012% IFR for people < 35 years old (obviously it would be higher - probably about double I would guess - if you did people 40 and under) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Unite... [2] https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/demographic-statistics https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/demographic-statistics [3] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/less-10-us-population-has-covid-19-antibodies-data-show https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/less-10-...
londons_explore 6y ago
Imperial has pretty close links with the popular press. Their studies are far more likely to make front page BBC news than say similar studies from Cambridge. The BBC also frequently invites Imperial staff on as on-air experts for almost any other issue.
- physicsguy 6y ago
  Doesn't hurt that they're in the middle of Kensington does it...
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
foolzcrow 6y ago
Once again propaganda that makes covid seem mythological and maximum scary for maximum rights violation. We did all this to flatten the curve and covid is so bad now we gotta end society as we know it or covid will end society as we know it. Wake up while you still have time.

31 points by dfgdghdf 6y ago

I took part in this test. In April/May I had a slight cough, tight chest and got breathless when walking. I had a very faint line indicating short term antibodies, then the second test I had no signs. Now if I had covid is another question. Everyone has been pretty damning of the testing system. Phone up doctors or an NHS help line, it's pretty much 'You may have mild symptoms' well how about we just do some testing yeah? I have no faith in the government stats for covid, if they're not even sending people to get tests then how on earth do they know what's really going on?

DoingIsLearning 6y ago
The Dutch are pretty much doing mass testing by analysing virus particles in sewage waste water. This gives you city level resolution of the virus spread and prevalence but I assume it relies on the assumption that the majority of infected people will also have detectable GI virus concentrations.
- tomatocracy 6y ago
  The ONS in the UK has been doing some very good work tracking prevalence in the community (and because they understand the statistical processes they're using properly, they update the estimates of past prevalence too). Unfortunately the ONS data is not reported as often in the press because it's updated only weekly, whereas test and trace-based absolute numbers are reported daily even though they're close to useless for population-level or region-level analysis. Unfortunately there's no similarly reliable source aimed at understanding prevalence and spread in institutional settings I'm aware of. This is a particular concern given that institutional settings encompasses hospitals and care homes, where a large portion of the most vulnerable are.

lbeltrame 6y ago

Note that this does not mean that immunity is also fading. Antibodies don't exist all the time in the bloodstream: immunological memory (in the case of antibodies, in the form of memory B cells) is what can prompt a quick response in case of reinfection. In fact, there isn't enough data to even know how long immunity is. And let's not get started with T cell immunity, which seems to play a role with this virus and is not touched by such a study.

zpeti 6y ago
I am absolutely baffled at how the media is covering this study, it's basically "front page" or I've seen it as the number 1 news item. Yet this doesn't mean anything as they didn't study T-cell response, and many other things. It is absolutely ridiculous fearmongering, and clickbait, by a top university + the press. As far as I know there has been 1 reinfection case in the entire US, and that was questionable as the guy tested positive the second time a few days after testing negative, so its possible it was a false positive. 1 case, in the ENTIRE US. It is ridiculous to suggest there isn't some sort of immunity. The virus has been around for 9 months now.
- sgt101 6y ago
  I listened to the lead of the study on the radio this morning - he certainly didn't suggest that there was "no immunity" and was careful about linking the fall in anti-bodies to immunity. I think it is clear that there is some connection though; not straightforward, but there is a link. On the other hand (as the scientist on the radio mentioned) apparently vaccines often work differently and it may be that they offer longer immunity.
- AstralStorm 6y ago
  The bigger question is how effective the acquired immunity is, and the only way to test it would be to infect a bunch of people who test positive for antibodies or reactive T cells. Pretty dangerous. Then you'd catalogue symptoms shown by those people held in quarantine, with different innoculum doses given including placebo. Somewhat similar to a phase 3 trial of a vaccine too, you can do it at the same time.

jeofken 6y ago

Is there any better summary of reinfection cases than this one from Dutch website BNO https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-t...? 24 cases worldwide. Seems like human immune systems are very effective against this disease.

gizmo 6y ago
And the only person who died was a 89 year old woman on chemotherapy: > Here, we report a case of a reinfection, in an 89-year old Dutch woman, suffering from Waldenström’s acroglobulinemia, treated with B-cell-depleting therapy Of course people without a functioning immune system can get reinfected. But those aren't the kind of reinfections that are relevant when we have to consider policy/mitigation. And with close to a billion people having been infected and there being only a handful of cases of reinfection it's pretty obvious that covid immunity is strong and long-lasting.
anoncake 6y ago
Scared people don't care about probabilities. We have known for months that the IFR is <0.01% for people under 40 and even lower for children, youth, and young adults. Yet they still blabber that everyone is in grave danger.
- Jeema101 6y ago
  >We have known for months that the IFR is <0.01% I don't think that's quite correct (in the US anyway), but if you have evidence otherwise feel free to share it. * 2,046 people age 35 and under have died of Covid-19 in the US as of Oct 10. [1] * People under 35 constitute 49.5% of the population in the US. [2] * An estimated 9.3% of the population has antibodies as of September [3] 330,00,000 x .49.5 x .093 = 15.2 million people in the < 35 year old age group infected as of September. Maybe 16.7 million now with the increase in cases since then, so: .012% IFR for people < 35 years old (obviously it would be higher - probably about double I would guess - if you did people 40 and under) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Unite... [2] https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/demographic-statistics https://www.infoplease.com/us/census/demographic-statistics [3] https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/less-10-us-population-has-covid-19-antibodies-data-show https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/less-10-...

londons_explore 6y ago

Imperial has pretty close links with the popular press. Their studies are far more likely to make front page BBC news than say similar studies from Cambridge. The BBC also frequently invites Imperial staff on as on-air experts for almost any other issue.

physicsguy 6y ago
Doesn't hurt that they're in the middle of Kensington does it...

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

foolzcrow 6y ago

Once again propaganda that makes covid seem mythological and maximum scary for maximum rights violation. We did all this to flatten the curve and covid is so bad now we gotta end society as we know it or covid will end society as we know it. Wake up while you still have time.