6 ms·

In the coming years, we may see the rise of separate economies based on political divide. I think this is where we are heading, and this will counterpart the w

In the coming years, we may see the rise of separate economies based on political divide. I think this is where we are heading, and this will counterpart the world splitting the internet into nationally divided fragments.

gruez 6y ago
>and this will counterpart the world splitting the internet into nationally divided fragments. Perhaps, but how is this related to this story? Both epik and paypal are located in the US. If anything this points towards the internet being divided across partisan lines.
- edoceo 6y ago
  "political divide" from the first sentence.
- MattGaiser 6y ago
  I think he is just comparing it to another way in which the internet is balkanizing.
  - ravenstine 6y ago
    This, but also in that I think internet balkanization, if it takes off, will only make it easier to further balkanize it into "micronations" for different ideologies, or corporate brands.
tobylane 6y ago
Without Visa, Mastercard or Paypal on the other side how can it survive? Cryptocurrencies as the current niche are hanging on, I suspect for as long as VMP permit them (ie buying bitcoin with a credit card). Everyone else, even Apple, go through them.
- thesimon 6y ago
  > Without Visa, Mastercard or Paypal on the other side how can it survive? Bank transfer?
- ravenstine 6y ago
  Separate economies don't necessarily have to be equal in capability. One may be the dominant while the other operates closer to being a black market, while not necessarily being an actual black market. Maybe it would be based on cryptocurrency, or a more traditional form of currency that is centralized but isn't USD, for instance. Or someone with a lot of money decides that having dominance over a new economy takes the opportunity and forms their own "competitor" to Visa, but it operates within the economy that Visa decides it doesn't want to be a part of. Then again, maybe Visa one day leaks enough customers that it decides it's not worth being as moralistic.
- AnthonyMouse 6y ago
  It's really more of a bootstrapping issue than anything. You need to accept credit cards because that's what your customers expect to pay using. If your customers start to expect to pay using some cryptocurrency, what do you need credit cards for? First you have to reach a critical mass for the alternative payment system, but the more legitimate businesses that PayPal boots to the other side of the wall, the more mass there is on the other side of the wall.
  - colejohnson66 6y ago
    Genuinely curious: if it’s a growth thing, how did PayPal get where they are today? I know eBay was involved, but not much more than that.
    - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
      First to market advantage, more or less. Also, it's even not so much PayPal as Visa and MasterCard, and how they got the way they are involves both politics and backroom dealings.
MattGaiser 6y ago
Will they be significant economies though? Gab and Epik are mostly about culture wars and conspiracy theories. How many people are actively involved in those?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  The history of explosive growth in tech platforms should make us very cautious about assuming small economies will stay small. It's been barely a decade since Facebook and Twitter were small platforms that didn't matter.
  - criddell 6y ago
    A decade ago Facebook and Twitter were small in a nascent industry.
    - Jtsummers 6y ago
      A decade ago Facebook had 500 million users. Not sure that's actually that small. It took them 2 years to double, and 5 years to double again (in 2017 they hit 2 billion).
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      That's how we see it in retrospect, but at the time it wasn't obvious that the industry was nascent. Many people saw them as strong competitors to Myspace and Friendster rather than anything fundamentally new; even once they got clearly past Myspace, it was quite common to hear people saying that the global demand for social media is probably saturated as they continued to grow. (And of course, it wasn't obvious that Myspace was a nascent industry either when they launched in 2003!)
  - MattGaiser 6y ago
    Facebook and Twitter don't require buying into any particular politics to join.
    - 6y ago
golemotron 6y ago
It happens a lot today. Advertising targets lifestyle cohorts, and political orientation is part of that. if you polled Uber and Lyft users you'd find that they have very different views of the world. Same with McDonalds and Chick-Fil-A. Last year, I was on an American Airlines flight and it was notable that they played up patriotism in a way that Delta doesn't.
- Jtsummers 6y ago
  I haven't flown on American in ages. How do they play up patriotism? Like, if a soldier boards they announce it kind of stuff? Because I've seen that on Delta too.
gman83 6y ago
This kind of situation used to exist in the Netherlands prior to World War II: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pillarisation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pillarisation I always found it crazy that my grandparents would tell me how there would be a socialist bakery and then a protestant bakery.

gruez 6y ago

>and this will counterpart the world splitting the internet into nationally divided fragments. Perhaps, but how is this related to this story? Both epik and paypal are located in the US. If anything this points towards the internet being divided across partisan lines.

edoceo 6y ago
"political divide" from the first sentence.
MattGaiser 6y ago
I think he is just comparing it to another way in which the internet is balkanizing.
- ravenstine 6y ago
  This, but also in that I think internet balkanization, if it takes off, will only make it easier to further balkanize it into "micronations" for different ideologies, or corporate brands.

tobylane 6y ago

Without Visa, Mastercard or Paypal on the other side how can it survive? Cryptocurrencies as the current niche are hanging on, I suspect for as long as VMP permit them (ie buying bitcoin with a credit card). Everyone else, even Apple, go through them.

thesimon 6y ago
> Without Visa, Mastercard or Paypal on the other side how can it survive? Bank transfer?
ravenstine 6y ago
Separate economies don't necessarily have to be equal in capability. One may be the dominant while the other operates closer to being a black market, while not necessarily being an actual black market. Maybe it would be based on cryptocurrency, or a more traditional form of currency that is centralized but isn't USD, for instance. Or someone with a lot of money decides that having dominance over a new economy takes the opportunity and forms their own "competitor" to Visa, but it operates within the economy that Visa decides it doesn't want to be a part of. Then again, maybe Visa one day leaks enough customers that it decides it's not worth being as moralistic.
AnthonyMouse 6y ago
It's really more of a bootstrapping issue than anything. You need to accept credit cards because that's what your customers expect to pay using. If your customers start to expect to pay using some cryptocurrency, what do you need credit cards for? First you have to reach a critical mass for the alternative payment system, but the more legitimate businesses that PayPal boots to the other side of the wall, the more mass there is on the other side of the wall.
- colejohnson66 6y ago
  Genuinely curious: if it’s a growth thing, how did PayPal get where they are today? I know eBay was involved, but not much more than that.
  - AnthonyMouse 6y ago
    First to market advantage, more or less. Also, it's even not so much PayPal as Visa and MasterCard, and how they got the way they are involves both politics and backroom dealings.

MattGaiser 6y ago

Will they be significant economies though? Gab and Epik are mostly about culture wars and conspiracy theories. How many people are actively involved in those?

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
The history of explosive growth in tech platforms should make us very cautious about assuming small economies will stay small. It's been barely a decade since Facebook and Twitter were small platforms that didn't matter.
- criddell 6y ago
  A decade ago Facebook and Twitter were small in a nascent industry.
  - Jtsummers 6y ago
    A decade ago Facebook had 500 million users. Not sure that's actually that small. It took them 2 years to double, and 5 years to double again (in 2017 they hit 2 billion).
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    That's how we see it in retrospect, but at the time it wasn't obvious that the industry was nascent. Many people saw them as strong competitors to Myspace and Friendster rather than anything fundamentally new; even once they got clearly past Myspace, it was quite common to hear people saying that the global demand for social media is probably saturated as they continued to grow. (And of course, it wasn't obvious that Myspace was a nascent industry either when they launched in 2003!)
- MattGaiser 6y ago
  Facebook and Twitter don't require buying into any particular politics to join.
  - 6y ago

golemotron 6y ago

It happens a lot today. Advertising targets lifestyle cohorts, and political orientation is part of that. if you polled Uber and Lyft users you'd find that they have very different views of the world. Same with McDonalds and Chick-Fil-A. Last year, I was on an American Airlines flight and it was notable that they played up patriotism in a way that Delta doesn't.

Jtsummers 6y ago
I haven't flown on American in ages. How do they play up patriotism? Like, if a soldier boards they announce it kind of stuff? Because I've seen that on Delta too.

gman83 6y ago

This kind of situation used to exist in the Netherlands prior to World War II: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pillarisation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pillarisation I always found it crazy that my grandparents would tell me how there would be a socialist bakery and then a protestant bakery.