11 ms·

if we're back to normalish by spring next year I think that would be a great outcome, if the messaging to the public would be, buckle down until then I think lo

if we're back to normalish by spring next year I think that would be a great outcome, if the messaging to the public would be, buckle down until then I think lockdown complaince could go up

shotta 6y ago
That’ll be extra rough for folks in the depths of winter.
x87678r 6y ago
I dont think any expert is predicting normalish by next spring, maybe in a years time if we're lucky. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-who-says-healthy-young-people-may-not-receive-a-covid-19-vaccine-until-2022/ar-BB1a3hru https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-who-says-health...
- Izkata 6y ago
  Meanwhile the general populace cares less and less, so we may be back to normal in the spring regardless.
  - claudeganon 6y ago
    Unfortunately, that’s not how a disease with a likely limited duration of immunity works. Also, the knock on effects of uncontrolled spread over the winter will almost guarantee that next year won’t be normal across many domains.
  - acdha 6y ago
    A disease isn’t something you can solve by pretending really hard that it doesn’t exist. People getting their news from irresponsible politicians get sick like everyone else, and that’s why it won’t get back to normal before there’s a vaccine or very effective treatment: it’ll be the same cycle of open-spike-close and businesses not having enough customers to be viable.
    - logicchains 6y ago
      >A disease isn’t something you can solve by pretending really hard that it doesn’t exist. This is demonstrably false. Some places are already back to life as normal, like Florida and Sweden, with no business closures. And in spite of this they still have lower deaths per capita than some places with heavy lockdowns like New York, Peru, Belgium and Spain.
      - artursapek 6y ago
        Not to mention the economic crater, and suicides!
      - anthonyrstevens 6y ago
        Come on. Florida is not "back to normal". The health department is still advocating the full suite of social interventions for citizens, including masks & social distancing. https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/prevention/ https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/prevention/
      - oblio 6y ago
        Sweden is not back to normal. Mass gatherings are still banned and people are self isolating en masse.
    - Izkata 6y ago
      > it’ll be the same cycle of open-spike-close and businesses not having enough customers to be viable. That's the part I'm referring to by "not caring" - just ignoring the close orders, especially since "two weeks to slow the spread" has been so completely abandoned.
      - acdha 6y ago
        Ignoring the law doesn’t lead to normal: just more preventable deaths and bankruptcies when businesses burn capital trying to stay open without enough customers to be profitable, even assuming they avoid legal repercussions.
input_sh 6y ago
I think you're vastly overestimating our capacity to build enough vaccines and distribute them over the world, as well as dealing with those who will refuse to vaccinate. Even if we had a vaccine ready for the roll-out today, I don't see us going back to normalish until late 2021 at earliest. As with any vaccine, you'd need about 80% of the population to vaccinate in order for herd immunity to kick in. I feel like we're gonna have trouble reaching that amount for years to come. Getting a working vaccine is only step 1 towards eradication path, not the end goal.
- breakfastduck 6y ago
  Overly cautious about the herd immunity stuff here. We're not going to eliminate the virus completely. That's a given, we should stop aiming for that. If we get to a point where there's a stable number of daily deaths then we're good. (like we have for literally every single fatal illness.)
  - SECProto 6y ago
    > (like we have for literally every single fatal illness) Smallpox. And if you consider within the borders of a given country, a dozen others (polio, measles, mumps, rubella, chickenpox).
    - 0xffff2 6y ago
      Which countries have eliminated the latter 4? I would consider an illness "eradicated" if the vaccine is no longer regularly given. At least 10 years ago (when I was in the field), MMR and Chickenpox vaccines were still regularly administered in the US.
      - SECProto 6y ago
        > I would consider an illness "eradicated" if the vaccine is no longer regularly given Fair enough. I would consider a virus eradicated when the general population gives zero thought to it, and effectively no one dies from it. Doesn't meet the strict medical definition, but I thought the description of "If we get to a point where there's a stable number of daily deaths then we're good" was overly pessimistic.
threeseed 6y ago
It likely won't be available to everyone in the US until Autumn timeframe. Perhaps even later if the vaccine needs repeated dosages over time. Priority will be health care workers, essential retail, vulnerable etc. By then it will kill at least a million people at the current trajectory. So US needs to start acting more aggressively now.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- hobby-coder-guy 6y ago
  What season do you think we are in?
numpad0 6y ago
Spring of 2022 is still more than a year away
kuu 6y ago
Let's see, because the vaccination probably requires two shots per person with probably 6-8 months in between, so it will take time...
- strictnein 6y ago
  Where did you read 6-8 months between? I’ve just seen the timespan between shots be listed as 1 month almost everywhere.
  - kuu 6y ago
    I was basing the comment in some other vaccines - Sorry I did not state it. I hope I'm wrong and it's much shorter time :) Can you also share some of those sources you mention? Thanks!
    - strictnein 6y ago
      https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/health/coronavirus-vaccine-two-doses/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/health/coronavirus-vaccine-tw... > Two of those companies, Moderna and Pfizer, are now in Phase 3, large-scale clinical trials. The 30,000 volunteers in each of the trials are getting two doses, with Moderna spacing their shots out 28 days apart and Pfizer spacing theirs out by 21 days. > AstraZeneca is expected to start Phase 3 trials this month. Their Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials used two doses given 28 days apart.

if we're back to normalish by spring next year I think that would be a great outcome, if the messaging to the public would be, buckle down until then I think lockdown complaince could go up

shotta 6y ago

That’ll be extra rough for folks in the depths of winter.

x87678r 6y ago

I dont think any expert is predicting normalish by next spring, maybe in a years time if we're lucky. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-who-says-healthy-young-people-may-not-receive-a-covid-19-vaccine-until-2022/ar-BB1a3hru https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/the-who-says-health...

Izkata 6y ago
Meanwhile the general populace cares less and less, so we may be back to normal in the spring regardless.
- claudeganon 6y ago
  Unfortunately, that’s not how a disease with a likely limited duration of immunity works. Also, the knock on effects of uncontrolled spread over the winter will almost guarantee that next year won’t be normal across many domains.
- acdha 6y ago
  A disease isn’t something you can solve by pretending really hard that it doesn’t exist. People getting their news from irresponsible politicians get sick like everyone else, and that’s why it won’t get back to normal before there’s a vaccine or very effective treatment: it’ll be the same cycle of open-spike-close and businesses not having enough customers to be viable.
  - logicchains 6y ago
    >A disease isn’t something you can solve by pretending really hard that it doesn’t exist. This is demonstrably false. Some places are already back to life as normal, like Florida and Sweden, with no business closures. And in spite of this they still have lower deaths per capita than some places with heavy lockdowns like New York, Peru, Belgium and Spain.
    - artursapek 6y ago
      Not to mention the economic crater, and suicides!
    - anthonyrstevens 6y ago
      Come on. Florida is not "back to normal". The health department is still advocating the full suite of social interventions for citizens, including masks & social distancing. https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/prevention/ https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/prevention/
    - oblio 6y ago
      Sweden is not back to normal. Mass gatherings are still banned and people are self isolating en masse.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    > it’ll be the same cycle of open-spike-close and businesses not having enough customers to be viable. That's the part I'm referring to by "not caring" - just ignoring the close orders, especially since "two weeks to slow the spread" has been so completely abandoned.
    - acdha 6y ago
      Ignoring the law doesn’t lead to normal: just more preventable deaths and bankruptcies when businesses burn capital trying to stay open without enough customers to be profitable, even assuming they avoid legal repercussions.

input_sh 6y ago

I think you're vastly overestimating our capacity to build enough vaccines and distribute them over the world, as well as dealing with those who will refuse to vaccinate. Even if we had a vaccine ready for the roll-out today, I don't see us going back to normalish until late 2021 at earliest. As with any vaccine, you'd need about 80% of the population to vaccinate in order for herd immunity to kick in. I feel like we're gonna have trouble reaching that amount for years to come. Getting a working vaccine is only step 1 towards eradication path, not the end goal.

breakfastduck 6y ago
Overly cautious about the herd immunity stuff here. We're not going to eliminate the virus completely. That's a given, we should stop aiming for that. If we get to a point where there's a stable number of daily deaths then we're good. (like we have for literally every single fatal illness.)
- SECProto 6y ago
  > (like we have for literally every single fatal illness) Smallpox. And if you consider within the borders of a given country, a dozen others (polio, measles, mumps, rubella, chickenpox).
  - 0xffff2 6y ago
    Which countries have eliminated the latter 4? I would consider an illness "eradicated" if the vaccine is no longer regularly given. At least 10 years ago (when I was in the field), MMR and Chickenpox vaccines were still regularly administered in the US.
    - SECProto 6y ago
      > I would consider an illness "eradicated" if the vaccine is no longer regularly given Fair enough. I would consider a virus eradicated when the general population gives zero thought to it, and effectively no one dies from it. Doesn't meet the strict medical definition, but I thought the description of "If we get to a point where there's a stable number of daily deaths then we're good" was overly pessimistic.

threeseed 6y ago

It likely won't be available to everyone in the US until Autumn timeframe. Perhaps even later if the vaccine needs repeated dosages over time. Priority will be health care workers, essential retail, vulnerable etc. By then it will kill at least a million people at the current trajectory. So US needs to start acting more aggressively now.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
hobby-coder-guy 6y ago
What season do you think we are in?

numpad0 6y ago

Spring of 2022 is still more than a year away

kuu 6y ago

Let's see, because the vaccination probably requires two shots per person with probably 6-8 months in between, so it will take time...

strictnein 6y ago
Where did you read 6-8 months between? I’ve just seen the timespan between shots be listed as 1 month almost everywhere.
- kuu 6y ago
  I was basing the comment in some other vaccines - Sorry I did not state it. I hope I'm wrong and it's much shorter time :) Can you also share some of those sources you mention? Thanks!
  - strictnein 6y ago
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/health/coronavirus-vaccine-two-doses/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/health/coronavirus-vaccine-tw... > Two of those companies, Moderna and Pfizer, are now in Phase 3, large-scale clinical trials. The 30,000 volunteers in each of the trials are getting two doses, with Moderna spacing their shots out 28 days apart and Pfizer spacing theirs out by 21 days. > AstraZeneca is expected to start Phase 3 trials this month. Their Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials used two doses given 28 days apart.