3 ms·

Much is still to be discovered about the virus, science only knows the effects after less than 1 year. The question is, what could long-term effects of this vir

Much is still to be discovered about the virus, science only knows the effects after less than 1 year. The question is, what could long-term effects of this virus? (let's in 10-20 years)

hejja 6y ago
true, yet the same can be said of: - any new pharmaceutical - diets (keto, carnivore, etc) - 5g etc point being: modifying behavior due to decade time-horizon unknowns is not really pragmatic.
- murgindrag 6y ago
  It kind of is. If you see a country next to yours building up a massive army, and starting propaganda about your government being evil, that's a good reason to prepare. If we learned of alien life in the galaxy, we might want to prepare too. And with diets and diseases, if something has a short-horizon effect, that's good evidence it might have a long time-horizon effect too. The seriousness with which I respond to COVID19 is mostly due to short time-horizon effects giving strong implications of possible long time-horizon effects. I'm less concerned about the 3% CFR as I am about the larger portion of individuals who might have long-term disability, lower economic output, etc. If that passes, we'll be feeling that for many decades.
- akuchling 6y ago
  It does mean not being very careless about getting infected, and weighs against the idea of going for herd immunity without a vaccine. Here's a Twitter thread listing post-infection syndromes from other vital infections: https://mobile.twitter.com/aetiology/status/1318676570467409922 https://mobile.twitter.com/aetiology/status/1318676570467409...
giantDinosaur 6y ago
This statement is the 'needs more research' of pandemics, and should be banned from public discourse...!
nradov 6y ago
Most likely the long term effects will be similar to the previous SARS virus. There are thousands of survivors who can be studied.

3 ms·

Much is still to be discovered about the virus, science only knows the effects after less than 1 year. The question is, what could long-term effects of this vir

by pedro-guimaraes 6y ago

Much is still to be discovered about the virus, science only knows the effects after less than 1 year. The question is, what could long-term effects of this virus? (let's in 10-20 years)

hejja 6y ago
true, yet the same can be said of: - any new pharmaceutical - diets (keto, carnivore, etc) - 5g etc point being: modifying behavior due to decade time-horizon unknowns is not really pragmatic.
- murgindrag 6y ago
  It kind of is. If you see a country next to yours building up a massive army, and starting propaganda about your government being evil, that's a good reason to prepare. If we learned of alien life in the galaxy, we might want to prepare too. And with diets and diseases, if something has a short-horizon effect, that's good evidence it might have a long time-horizon effect too. The seriousness with which I respond to COVID19 is mostly due to short time-horizon effects giving strong implications of possible long time-horizon effects. I'm less concerned about the 3% CFR as I am about the larger portion of individuals who might have long-term disability, lower economic output, etc. If that passes, we'll be feeling that for many decades.
- akuchling 6y ago
  It does mean not being very careless about getting infected, and weighs against the idea of going for herd immunity without a vaccine. Here's a Twitter thread listing post-infection syndromes from other vital infections: https://mobile.twitter.com/aetiology/status/1318676570467409922 https://mobile.twitter.com/aetiology/status/1318676570467409...
giantDinosaur 6y ago
This statement is the 'needs more research' of pandemics, and should be banned from public discourse...!
nradov 6y ago
Most likely the long term effects will be similar to the previous SARS virus. There are thousands of survivors who can be studied.