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When he said "I am expecting it to end up under 170,000 or maybe 175,000.", if he had added "plus or minus 1.5M" that would have been clearer. Edit: In other w
by IvyMike 6y ago
When he said "I am expecting it to end up under 170,000 or maybe 175,000.", if he had added "plus or minus 1.5M" that would have been clearer.
Edit: In other words, when his prediction is given with an implied error of +/- 5000, that speaks to a level of confidence that as you point out, anybody familiar with power law processes would not dare to give.
- Gibbon1 6y agoHis 'predictions' sound like an old paper I read that predicted Farr's law that AIDs would disappear in the mid 90's. Digging, found a paper from 2007 shitting on it. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1906780/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1906780/ Pubmed reference. Abstract predicts 200,000 cases total. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2308183/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2308183/ I'm left with the opinion that Michael Levitt is basically a stupid person.
- dekhn 6y agoah, yes, and the part where he helped invent molecular dynamics and won a nobel prize for it was all just garbage too?
- Gibbon1 6y agoLinus Pauling was pushing Vitamin C quack cures most of his life. Shockley was a believer in scientific racism and eugenics. Perhaps the proper term is fachidiot.