8 ms·

Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy

35 points by atombender 6y ago

just-juan-post 6y ago
Did you know that Argentina has been on lockdown for 200 days and has mandatory mask orders? [1] Did you also know their positivity rate is the highest in the world? [2] 1 - https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/200-days-the-worlds-longest-lockdown https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/200-days-the-worlds-l... 2 -https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/argentina-has-world-s-highest-covid-19-positive-rate-n1242262 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/argentina-has-world-s-hi...
- tyldum 6y ago
  You also need to account for how much people respect their government and policies in their respective countries.
- taxicab 6y ago
  Maybe comparing pandemic response is more complicated than a dumping of numbers on wildly unrelated countries? A more accurate comparison that controls for location, culture, political structure, economic situation, etc is between Sweden and the other Nordic countries where it had both higher mortality and worse economic outcomes than its sister nations. Carefully consider your preexisting biases when it comes to interpreting something as complex as the respond of entire nations to an unprecedented pandemic. Maybe Argentinians just refuse to listen to their government? Maybe environmental factors or lack of infrastructure made it way worse down there and it would be even worse if it weren't for the lockdowns?
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    Honest question, what is unique about Nordic culture that makes it altogether different than the UK, France, Belgium and Italy, such that Sweden is not allowed to be compared to other European countries which fared worse or about the same as they did despite draconian lockdowns? Is the argument that Nordic people are more naturally resistant to this disease and therefore Sweden could have lost fewer people? Or is it merely that Norway and Finland were able to prevent the outbreaks among their most vulnerable since they had the benefit of the virus arriving later and so they could better prepare? The most recent stat I read showed that Sweden currently has less than a dozen people in the hospital with Covid conditions. We're 8-9 months in to this and so far the Swedes are not dropping like flies. They had an early spike in deaths and it since fizzled out.
    - jacques_chester 6y ago
      The Swedes are best compared to their neighbours Norway and Finland, who share contiguous borders, very similar climate, comparable cultures and similar economies. As of today[0]: Norway (pop 5.5Mn): 16,136 confirmed cases, 278 deaths in total, 915 new cases in the last 7 days. Finland (pop 5.2Mn): 13,133 confirmed cases, 351 deaths in total, 1,553 new cases in the past 7 days. Sweden (pop 10.3Mn): 103,200 confirmed cases, 5,918 deaths in total, 3,280 confirmed new cases in the past 7 days. On each of these measures Sweden fares far worse. They have 4x the cases of Finland and Norway combined, 9x the deaths of Finland and Norway combined, 1.5x the new cases of Finland and Norway combined. In absolute and relative terms, Sweden are not worthy of emulation. [0] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
      - chrisco255 6y ago
        That did not answer my question, at all. Why can't Sweden also be compared with the UK and Belgium? There's no evidence that coronavirus has a climate-related outcome, save for vitamin D sufficiency, which is only partly related to climate. According to this: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat... Sweden is at number 13 and falling. Many latin American countries as well as UK, Spain, Belgium, US, and Italy have all fared worse on a per capita basis than Sweden. Coronavirus does not discriminate based on economy. Many first world nations have been hard hit. Coronavirus does not discriminate based on climate, many warm latin american countries are in the top 10. Coronavirus has hit many areas of the US the hardest during the summer. Sweden has never locked down, never mandated masks, and they currently have only a couple dozen hospitalizations. Their deaths, even by your chart, have completely flatlined at near zero for now going on three months.
        neilwilson 6y ago
        A more interesting issue is why Belgium can never be compared to Germany and Netherlands, in the same way as Sweden is constantly compared to Norway and Finland. The way the beliefs are repeated is just as interesting as why the Groupthink has come about in the first place. It’s a worldview. Note that the elderly have to be protected as though they are cattle rather than being told they can choose to protect themselves if they want. Top down vs bottom up
- jacques_chester 6y ago
  The first paragraph of the NBC article: > BUENOS AIRES - Argentina has the world’s highest rate of positive COVID-19 tests, according to Oxford-linked tracker Our World In Data, with nearly six out of 10 yielding an infection, a reflection of low testing levels and loose enforcement of lockdown rules. If you were implying that strict lockdowns have paradoxically failed, then you've picked the wrong evidence.
  - thu2111 6y ago
    The impracticality of actually "locking down" is one of the key arguments against the concept, so it's not wrong evidence at all. The idea society can be shut down for indefinite, unknown periods is not correct as we don't live in a world where all manual labour is performed by robots.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  Sub headline of #2 (no body reading required) > “Is there isolation? There is none. Are there (enough) tests? No there aren’t,” one pediatrician in Buenos Aires said.
- Barrin92 6y ago
  Saying Argentina is on lockdown is like saying that Greece is collecting taxes
dalke 6y ago
This is a rewrite of the article at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/17/sweden-considers-local-lockdowns-shift-coronavirus-strategy/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/17/sweden-considers... . Which they link to, so I'm not saying anything new here. But because of the two degrees of separation, it seems to have lost something. I suggest "Sweden is tightening it's light-lockdown strategy ... " as a more accurate description. I say this because I was confused. It's titled "no-lockdown strategy", but as the article points out, the end result of these new changes is not lockdown, so it would still be a "no-lockdown strategy" - using the Business Insider's definition. However, Sweden has had restrictions. Public events with 50 or more people were cancelled, many schools went to distance learning, and more. See https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency... for the FAQ in English, listing many of the restrictions. For example, the BI article says: > It will give local authorities the power to strongly recommend people to avoid busy public places like shopping centers, museums, gyms, concerts, and sports matches. Swedes may also be asked to avoid public transport and contact with the elderly and vulnerable. But we (I live in Sweden) have that already. School sports venues, for example, hosted games without audiences. The signs at the bus stops and train stations ask to avoid non-essential public transport. Places cap the number of people allowed. The source article in The Telegraph is more accurate with "It's more of a lockdown situation - but a local lockdown" as it acknowledges that there has been a lockdown, defined as a restriction in allowed activities.
- jacques_chester 6y ago
  The key is that there is a shift in the rhetoric from the architect of the herd immunity policy, Dr Tegnell: > Dr Tegnell said on Thursday that the autumn resurgence in infections had changed his agency's understanding. > "I think the obvious conclusion is that the level of immunity in those cities is not at all as high as we have, as maybe some people, have believed," he said. Sweden has been the poster child for folks trying to wish away the danger of allowing a relatively dangerous, highly infectious pandemic to run its natural course. Now even the Swedes are conceding that, you know, letting people die unnecessarily was ... unnecessary.

35 points by atombender 6y ago

Did you know that Argentina has been on lockdown for 200 days and has mandatory mask orders? [1] Did you also know their positivity rate is the highest in the world? [2] 1 - https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/200-days-the-worlds-longest-lockdown https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/200-days-the-worlds-l... 2 -https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/argentina-has-world-s-highest-covid-19-positive-rate-n1242262 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/argentina-has-world-s-hi...

tyldum 6y ago
You also need to account for how much people respect their government and policies in their respective countries.
taxicab 6y ago
Maybe comparing pandemic response is more complicated than a dumping of numbers on wildly unrelated countries? A more accurate comparison that controls for location, culture, political structure, economic situation, etc is between Sweden and the other Nordic countries where it had both higher mortality and worse economic outcomes than its sister nations. Carefully consider your preexisting biases when it comes to interpreting something as complex as the respond of entire nations to an unprecedented pandemic. Maybe Argentinians just refuse to listen to their government? Maybe environmental factors or lack of infrastructure made it way worse down there and it would be even worse if it weren't for the lockdowns?
- chrisco255 6y ago
  Honest question, what is unique about Nordic culture that makes it altogether different than the UK, France, Belgium and Italy, such that Sweden is not allowed to be compared to other European countries which fared worse or about the same as they did despite draconian lockdowns? Is the argument that Nordic people are more naturally resistant to this disease and therefore Sweden could have lost fewer people? Or is it merely that Norway and Finland were able to prevent the outbreaks among their most vulnerable since they had the benefit of the virus arriving later and so they could better prepare? The most recent stat I read showed that Sweden currently has less than a dozen people in the hospital with Covid conditions. We're 8-9 months in to this and so far the Swedes are not dropping like flies. They had an early spike in deaths and it since fizzled out.
  - jacques_chester 6y ago
    The Swedes are best compared to their neighbours Norway and Finland, who share contiguous borders, very similar climate, comparable cultures and similar economies. As of today[0]: Norway (pop 5.5Mn): 16,136 confirmed cases, 278 deaths in total, 915 new cases in the last 7 days. Finland (pop 5.2Mn): 13,133 confirmed cases, 351 deaths in total, 1,553 new cases in the past 7 days. Sweden (pop 10.3Mn): 103,200 confirmed cases, 5,918 deaths in total, 3,280 confirmed new cases in the past 7 days. On each of these measures Sweden fares far worse. They have 4x the cases of Finland and Norway combined, 9x the deaths of Finland and Norway combined, 1.5x the new cases of Finland and Norway combined. In absolute and relative terms, Sweden are not worthy of emulation. [0] https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
    - chrisco255 6y ago
      That did not answer my question, at all. Why can't Sweden also be compared with the UK and Belgium? There's no evidence that coronavirus has a climate-related outcome, save for vitamin D sufficiency, which is only partly related to climate. According to this: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat... Sweden is at number 13 and falling. Many latin American countries as well as UK, Spain, Belgium, US, and Italy have all fared worse on a per capita basis than Sweden. Coronavirus does not discriminate based on economy. Many first world nations have been hard hit. Coronavirus does not discriminate based on climate, many warm latin american countries are in the top 10. Coronavirus has hit many areas of the US the hardest during the summer. Sweden has never locked down, never mandated masks, and they currently have only a couple dozen hospitalizations. Their deaths, even by your chart, have completely flatlined at near zero for now going on three months.
      - neilwilson 6y ago
        A more interesting issue is why Belgium can never be compared to Germany and Netherlands, in the same way as Sweden is constantly compared to Norway and Finland. The way the beliefs are repeated is just as interesting as why the Groupthink has come about in the first place. It’s a worldview. Note that the elderly have to be protected as though they are cattle rather than being told they can choose to protect themselves if they want. Top down vs bottom up
jacques_chester 6y ago
The first paragraph of the NBC article: > BUENOS AIRES - Argentina has the world’s highest rate of positive COVID-19 tests, according to Oxford-linked tracker Our World In Data, with nearly six out of 10 yielding an infection, a reflection of low testing levels and loose enforcement of lockdown rules. If you were implying that strict lockdowns have paradoxically failed, then you've picked the wrong evidence.
- thu2111 6y ago
  The impracticality of actually "locking down" is one of the key arguments against the concept, so it's not wrong evidence at all. The idea society can be shut down for indefinite, unknown periods is not correct as we don't live in a world where all manual labour is performed by robots.
srtjstjsj 6y ago
Sub headline of #2 (no body reading required) > “Is there isolation? There is none. Are there (enough) tests? No there aren’t,” one pediatrician in Buenos Aires said.
Barrin92 6y ago
Saying Argentina is on lockdown is like saying that Greece is collecting taxes

dalke 6y ago

This is a rewrite of the article at https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/17/sweden-considers-local-lockdowns-shift-coronavirus-strategy/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/17/sweden-considers... . Which they link to, so I'm not saying anything new here. But because of the two degrees of separation, it seems to have lost something. I suggest "Sweden is tightening it's light-lockdown strategy ... " as a more accurate description. I say this because I was confused. It's titled "no-lockdown strategy", but as the article points out, the end result of these new changes is not lockdown, so it would still be a "no-lockdown strategy" - using the Business Insider's definition. However, Sweden has had restrictions. Public events with 50 or more people were cancelled, many schools went to distance learning, and more. See https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/covid-19/ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency... for the FAQ in English, listing many of the restrictions. For example, the BI article says: > It will give local authorities the power to strongly recommend people to avoid busy public places like shopping centers, museums, gyms, concerts, and sports matches. Swedes may also be asked to avoid public transport and contact with the elderly and vulnerable. But we (I live in Sweden) have that already. School sports venues, for example, hosted games without audiences. The signs at the bus stops and train stations ask to avoid non-essential public transport. Places cap the number of people allowed. The source article in The Telegraph is more accurate with "It's more of a lockdown situation - but a local lockdown" as it acknowledges that there has been a lockdown, defined as a restriction in allowed activities.

jacques_chester 6y ago
The key is that there is a shift in the rhetoric from the architect of the herd immunity policy, Dr Tegnell: > Dr Tegnell said on Thursday that the autumn resurgence in infections had changed his agency's understanding. > "I think the obvious conclusion is that the level of immunity in those cities is not at all as high as we have, as maybe some people, have believed," he said. Sweden has been the poster child for folks trying to wish away the danger of allowing a relatively dangerous, highly infectious pandemic to run its natural course. Now even the Swedes are conceding that, you know, letting people die unnecessarily was ... unnecessary.