What got me thinking of this prediction was actually Graeber, and Tyler Cowen. Both noted some evident facts about productivity that I hadn't heard mentioned of

What got me thinking of this prediction was actually Graeber, and Tyler Cowen. Both noted some evident facts about productivity that I hadn't heard mentioned often. Stuff that was simply "out of theory" and irrelevant to it despite seeming logically contradictory to theory. The observations about efficiency in administration in the digital age is particularly striking. I do think Graeber tended to overstate conclusions. I actually think we understand inflation wrong, and that this becomes relevant over long time scales. Some productivity trends just overestimate reality. We haven't really become as wealthy and efficient as the measures suggest. Another problem is non fungibility. Not owning a smartphone in 1970 is different from not owning one in 2020 in ways that we can't be quantified in dollars. You can't buy a 1960 education or 1990 healthcare. It isn't sold, and it wouldn't have the same value even if sold. It's way too complicated to dismiss with a "our expectations have gone up."