I'm not sure that the author's assessment that "36% accuracy rate" ... "there is no reason to doubt his date of 2029" follows. I'm no statistician, but my intu

I'm not sure that the author's assessment that "36% accuracy rate" ... "there is no reason to doubt his date of 2029" follows. I'm no statistician, but my intuition tells me that if you drop 1/3 accuracy every 10 years, you're shooting well under 10% by 2029, so it seems crazy to say that we're "on track" for that date. This reminds me of the insanity that some project managers use to estimate their completion dates. They say something will take 1 year. Then after 2 months they have done 1 month of work and then update their total estimate to be 13 months instead of 24. And I'd argue that its even worse for Kurzweil's prediction because in that case its an exponential growth factor thats off - not a constant factor. Want a prediction to sell a book? Singularity by 2029. Want the truth? The singularity won't happen by 2029. Note: I'm using 10 years here because the predictions from 2020 were not graded, and the last timeframe for graded predictions was ~2015