4 ms·

Moore's law, Wright's law may not be natural laws but have mostly proved to be consistently true observations.

orwin 6y ago
Yeah, still not taking into account the energy we're using and the manpower this energy liberate. But this energy is not infinite. Despite all innovations in solar/wind, and assuming efficient storage that does not exist yet, EU won't be able to absorb a 3% decrease in oil+gas importations by 2030. Rystad (https://www.rystadenergy.com/ https://www.rystadenergy.com/), pre-covid, was forecasting a 2 to 8% decrease in oil and gas import from the EU according to the think tank "the shift project" [0][1]. I won't talk about manpower much because there is still a chance that nothing more heavy than Covid will hit us in the near future, but meals will be hard to get this year in eastern Africa and while this year India did not suffer as much as in 2019, another drought like 2019 next year would be even more disastrous. For information, this winter could have been worse for Africa than 2011, luckily the wildfires and drought in russia were localized further north than a decade ago. But well, we still have two silver bullets: fusion and renewable hydrolyse. [0] https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Study_Risk-supply-Europe_TSP-with-Rystad-Data.pdf https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Study... complete data analysis [1] https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/fig40.jpg#main https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/fig40... short graph.
wazoox 6y ago
In the real world, any period of exponential growth is part of an S-curve (coming to a plateau) or a bell curve (reaching a maximum, then decreasing) of some sort. You can't cheat with the law of physics and entropy.
wadkar 6y ago
I don’t think Moore’s law are laws in traditional scientific sense but more of a boardroom driven agenda that’s more of a self fulfilling prophecy

Yeah, still not taking into account the energy we're using and the manpower this energy liberate. But this energy is not infinite. Despite all innovations in solar/wind, and assuming efficient storage that does not exist yet, EU won't be able to absorb a 3% decrease in oil+gas importations by 2030. Rystad (https://www.rystadenergy.com/ https://www.rystadenergy.com/), pre-covid, was forecasting a 2 to 8% decrease in oil and gas import from the EU according to the think tank "the shift project" [0][1]. I won't talk about manpower much because there is still a chance that nothing more heavy than Covid will hit us in the near future, but meals will be hard to get this year in eastern Africa and while this year India did not suffer as much as in 2019, another drought like 2019 next year would be even more disastrous. For information, this winter could have been worse for Africa than 2011, luckily the wildfires and drought in russia were localized further north than a decade ago. But well, we still have two silver bullets: fusion and renewable hydrolyse. [0] https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Study_Risk-supply-Europe_TSP-with-Rystad-Data.pdf https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Study... complete data analysis [1] https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/fig40.jpg#main https://theshiftproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/fig40... short graph.

wazoox 6y ago

In the real world, any period of exponential growth is part of an S-curve (coming to a plateau) or a bell curve (reaching a maximum, then decreasing) of some sort. You can't cheat with the law of physics and entropy.

wadkar 6y ago

I don’t think Moore’s law are laws in traditional scientific sense but more of a boardroom driven agenda that’s more of a self fulfilling prophecy