4 ms·

To a large degree, this makes sense. In the UK, 75% of deaths are people aged 75 and older. I'm not sure if its the same age profile in the US but I would thin

To a large degree, this makes sense. In the UK, 75% of deaths are people aged 75 and older. I'm not sure if its the same age profile in the US but I would think yes. Even here in the Bay Area, the death rate is about 0.5% for everyone below the age of 60. If we lock down those over 60, and let everyone else live with masks and social distancing, the infection rate may skyrocket but the hospitalization and death rates will plummet. This is basically what we are seeing globally now, where the infection rate is higher than in March but death rates are much lower. Granted, there were less tests being run so that makes things hard to compare. Also, the bigger problem is those that need to take care of their parents who are in this age group. The infectiousness is so high that if the children get sick, the parents will definitely get sick. So this is the biggest quagmire, that entire families will become isolated to protect the parents. It's not a perfect solution but better on a percentage basis for the entire country than locking down everyone, even though the risk profiles are drastically different.

disgruntledphd2 6y ago
How do nursing homes continue to operate in this scenario? I hear a lot of people talking about this kind of shield the vulnerable approach, but no-one who can answer the question of how nursing homes work in this condition.
- clairity 6y ago
  you put them in a government-aided bubble.
- DuskStar 6y ago
  Thus far? Nursing homes have operated as 'places people go to die'. COVID has just made those deaths a little faster. In all seriousness, taking any amount of effort to protect nursing homes would be better than what we have right now. Like, "stop sending COVID patients to nursing homes" levels of effort. (Thanks, NY and MI - plus others I'm sure)
  - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
    My dad was in a nursing home for a few years, he died just before Covid. I don't dispute the point in general, but it really really matters to the families of these people what happens in nursing homes. Consider: nursing homes have many staff. Most of them are young and badly-paid. In any let it rip scenario, many of these will have Covid, and will bring it into the home. OK, so let's test everyone. Even ignoring the fact that testing is not 100% accurate and takes time (do you test all staff and have them wait for the results), you'll get loads of staff infected, and who do you replace them with? It appears in Sweden that a major carrier of Covid into nursing homes was agency staff (short-term people brought in to cover staff gaps). How do you stop this from happening again? Full disclosure: my mother, father-in-law and mother-in-law are all over 70 with a consequent higher risk level, so this is not abstract to me as I'd like them to survive long enough so that my newborn daughter remembers them.
- cwhiz 6y ago
  No one has answered this? Come now. It's not hard to solve. Nursing homes remain closed to visitors. Staff and residents only. Staff are tested daily for covid. Nursing home residents do not leave the nursing home. Staff and residents wear contact tracing bracelets and residents stay distant from one another. You do the best you can. The common cold can be deadly for people in nursing homes. We cannot drop the risk to zero.
  - fwip 6y ago
    And how do you propose to keep staff from getting covid if "infection rates skyrocket?" Daily testing doesn't help much if you end up disqualifying most of your staff.
    - cheeze 6y ago
      The same way the NBA did. With strict rules around quarantining. If you're staff, you're part of that "70+ at risk population"
    - cwhiz 6y ago
      This isn’t rocket science. You quarantine, test frequently, keep skeleton crews, contact trace, etc. Like I said, it isn’t going to be perfect. It can’t be perfect. You do the best you can. You don’t shut down the entire US economy because nursing homes aren’t bulletproof. With daily testing, constant PPE for staff, contact tracing, and other preventive measures it will be fine. It won’t be perfect but it will be fine. It will likely be better than typical.
      - fwip 6y ago
        The NBA quarantine works because it's for a multi-billion dollar industry and aimed to protect fewer than 500 players. Over a million people are in nursing homes, and more than another million work in them. I am not sure why you think it's more realistic to lock down three million people totally than have most people take moderate precautions. Remember, this is in a proposed scenario in which the average grocery shopper will have a high likelihood of being infected, without masks or any social distancing measures being taken. The White House tried the "frequent rapid testing" strategy, and that didn't seem to do a very good job of protecting the staff there. Again, this was in the current situation in which we have a relatively low prevalence of contagion, with social distancing measures and masks in the outside environment.
- jennyyang 6y ago
  My mom is in a memory ward. The access to visitors is extremely limited. At one point we could only visit through a window to wave hello. Now, visitors are allowed in certain areas. But it's not foolproof and I'm sure if there's an outbreak there will be a lot of casualties unfortunately.
- christkv 6y ago
  They don’t and we are seeing increasing cases in them in Europe. Only manager change is better procedures hopefully that might reduce spread internally.
thinkharderdev 6y ago
I agree in general, but I think that the problem is that a lot of people refuse to wear masks or exercise even a modicum of social distancing. I think we already have all the tools we need to control COVID to a level where most people can live a relatively normal life but there is a minority of people who refuse to accept that this is a serious problem at all and refuse to take any action, no matter how trivial, to deal with it.

disgruntledphd2 6y ago

How do nursing homes continue to operate in this scenario? I hear a lot of people talking about this kind of shield the vulnerable approach, but no-one who can answer the question of how nursing homes work in this condition.

clairity 6y ago
you put them in a government-aided bubble.
DuskStar 6y ago
Thus far? Nursing homes have operated as 'places people go to die'. COVID has just made those deaths a little faster. In all seriousness, taking any amount of effort to protect nursing homes would be better than what we have right now. Like, "stop sending COVID patients to nursing homes" levels of effort. (Thanks, NY and MI - plus others I'm sure)
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  My dad was in a nursing home for a few years, he died just before Covid. I don't dispute the point in general, but it really really matters to the families of these people what happens in nursing homes. Consider: nursing homes have many staff. Most of them are young and badly-paid. In any let it rip scenario, many of these will have Covid, and will bring it into the home. OK, so let's test everyone. Even ignoring the fact that testing is not 100% accurate and takes time (do you test all staff and have them wait for the results), you'll get loads of staff infected, and who do you replace them with? It appears in Sweden that a major carrier of Covid into nursing homes was agency staff (short-term people brought in to cover staff gaps). How do you stop this from happening again? Full disclosure: my mother, father-in-law and mother-in-law are all over 70 with a consequent higher risk level, so this is not abstract to me as I'd like them to survive long enough so that my newborn daughter remembers them.
cwhiz 6y ago
No one has answered this? Come now. It's not hard to solve. Nursing homes remain closed to visitors. Staff and residents only. Staff are tested daily for covid. Nursing home residents do not leave the nursing home. Staff and residents wear contact tracing bracelets and residents stay distant from one another. You do the best you can. The common cold can be deadly for people in nursing homes. We cannot drop the risk to zero.
- fwip 6y ago
  And how do you propose to keep staff from getting covid if "infection rates skyrocket?" Daily testing doesn't help much if you end up disqualifying most of your staff.
  - cheeze 6y ago
    The same way the NBA did. With strict rules around quarantining. If you're staff, you're part of that "70+ at risk population"
  - cwhiz 6y ago
    This isn’t rocket science. You quarantine, test frequently, keep skeleton crews, contact trace, etc. Like I said, it isn’t going to be perfect. It can’t be perfect. You do the best you can. You don’t shut down the entire US economy because nursing homes aren’t bulletproof. With daily testing, constant PPE for staff, contact tracing, and other preventive measures it will be fine. It won’t be perfect but it will be fine. It will likely be better than typical.
    - fwip 6y ago
      The NBA quarantine works because it's for a multi-billion dollar industry and aimed to protect fewer than 500 players. Over a million people are in nursing homes, and more than another million work in them. I am not sure why you think it's more realistic to lock down three million people totally than have most people take moderate precautions. Remember, this is in a proposed scenario in which the average grocery shopper will have a high likelihood of being infected, without masks or any social distancing measures being taken. The White House tried the "frequent rapid testing" strategy, and that didn't seem to do a very good job of protecting the staff there. Again, this was in the current situation in which we have a relatively low prevalence of contagion, with social distancing measures and masks in the outside environment.
jennyyang 6y ago
My mom is in a memory ward. The access to visitors is extremely limited. At one point we could only visit through a window to wave hello. Now, visitors are allowed in certain areas. But it's not foolproof and I'm sure if there's an outbreak there will be a lot of casualties unfortunately.
christkv 6y ago
They don’t and we are seeing increasing cases in them in Europe. Only manager change is better procedures hopefully that might reduce spread internally.

thinkharderdev 6y ago

I agree in general, but I think that the problem is that a lot of people refuse to wear masks or exercise even a modicum of social distancing. I think we already have all the tools we need to control COVID to a level where most people can live a relatively normal life but there is a minority of people who refuse to accept that this is a serious problem at all and refuse to take any action, no matter how trivial, to deal with it.