But that doesn't seem to be a question of being a better programmer, it seems to be either that you are better at knowing what people want, or that you are luck

But that doesn't seem to be a question of being a better programmer, it seems to be either that you are better at knowing what people want, or that you are luckier because you chose parameters that are closer to what the market demands. You only get a few chances to find those parameters, so either you are really good at learning from what you've seen from other people, or your hunch that this-or-that shooter game is what will be popular. I'm sure there's a lot of very competent makers in every field who don't get called up to make the thing they are good at, that people also want.