4 ms·

The geopay stuff seems unstable as a norm... if that's the way we're going. It makes sense atm, maybe, for tech companies. The tech companies, currently, are

by netcan 6y ago

The geopay stuff seems unstable as a norm... if that's the way we're going. It makes sense atm, maybe, for tech companies. The tech companies, currently, are extremely flush with cash. They don't need to be all that ruthless. This takes off a lot of pressure. But as things go on, "geopay" is going to become an optimizable cost structure. There will be uncomfortable conversations as people move to higher geopay places. False addresses. Optimisations on all sides. Maybe I'm wrong, but this seems like a mess, as the games play out.

MattGaiser 6y ago
I have a evil theory. Geopay will act like as an assumed filter. Top go getter types who are the future leaders will (in theory) come to the office and get the high pay. The less ambitious but still capable workers will move to cheaper places and earn less and be more easily replaceable.
- netcan 6y ago
  There's an old pg essay about what the dotcom got right. I don't quite remember the details, but I remember that I did take away a "correct but early" interpretation of the whole thing. "First movers takes the whole pie" was taken too literally, eventually dominant online businesses did build unbreachable moats. E Commerce is eating retail. The dotcom was just 5-10 years ealy in its predictions. Anyway... WFH and outsourcing did have a small boom and bust. On WFH, Marissa Meyer pulled the plug and the WFH reversed. "IT Outsourcing" was imminent circa 2000, but a lot of companies had to reverse out of this strategy. It may be that these were right-but-early. WFH & outsourcing are now ready. I also think they are hard to seperate. Once WFH becomes a norm, the labour market is internationalised by default. Not just tech jobs. If you can work from Montana, you can work from Sophia.
  - freetime2 6y ago
    Timezones are still going to matter when it comes to remote work. I work on a team that was historically distributed in the US West and JAPAC regions. Communication was fine, because there was enough overlap that we could easily schedule meetings with everyone. But once we started adding team members in Europe, communication became significantly more challenging. There may also be legal reasons for companies to hire within a certain country. For example, government contracts might stipulate that only US citizens are allowed to have access to production servers. So while I definitely think that adoption of remote work will result in more opportunities for people living outside of traditional tech hotspots, I think we will still continue to see individual companies preferring to hire within certain countries and regions.
    - lastofthemojito 6y ago
      Timezones are funny because you still get a wide variance of working hours within them. I worked on a project a while back with an early bird (~6am-2pm) and a night owl (~noon-8pm) who had to coordinate a lot of changes. I (half-)joked that they probably would have coordinated better if one of them was in Reykjavik and the other in LA rather than try to do everything in that narrow window when both were in the office. I know some remote companies have timezone-based policies (e.g., you must be within 4 timezones of NYC). I wonder if we'll see less focus on where the employee is and more on when they are willing to work ("I don't care that you're in Kyev or Mumbai or Jakarta, as long as you'll work our hours").
      - ghaff 6y ago
        I know someone who has their own PR agency who lives in Hawaii. Most (all?) of her clients are US West Coast. She just keeps an early bird schedule.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      Yes. I (US East Coast) work with Europe a lot and that difference (6 hours) feels to me about the limit of frequent ongoing realtime communications. It means you've got a nice window of time that isn't too early for the US or too late for Europe. More than that and someone's taking 5am calls or 10pm calls.
- pembrook 6y ago
  This is already how organizations work and have always worked. The more ambitious, sociopathic and lucky ones rise up the ladder. The people who don’t care that much about work remain ICs and enjoy the rest of their life outside work. There’s a great blog post about this on Ribbon farm.
lastofthemojito 6y ago
I think we'll see a lot of people try to game it: * Not updating their address with their company after moving to a new, lower-cost location * Using the address of family or friends in a higher-cost area * Renting a PO Box or cheap room or studio in a high-cost area, but spending most time elsewhere I'd imagine we'll see companies pop up offering address verification services - physically and/or digitally tailing employees to find address mismatches. They'll probably sell themselves to large tech employers by saying that the geopay savings incurred more than pay for their services. Maybe this already exists?
- ryandrake 6y ago
  I'd expect to see this too, but I think anyone planning to do these tactics is walking an extremely thin line between "gaming the system" and fraud. Not to be Debbie Downer, but if someone is thinking about getting a PO box in SF and funneling all their work connections through a silicon valley VPN, they should think about how it will look in front of a judge when their company goes after them.
  - lastofthemojito 6y ago
    Yeah, I wouldn't do any of the things I listed either. The potential punishment way outweighs the potential gains. But some people just can't resist trying to "beat the system" or "stick it to The Man" or whatever. I also wonder how things will go for people who take up the digital nomad lifestyle. I think most digital nomads thus far have been freelancers, entrepreneurs, etc. But big Microsoft-esque employers, much like the US tax system, are going to expect you to have a fixed address. If I'm currently based in India but sell my home to hop from location to location every couple of months, am I permanently on India-level pay? What if I did the same thing but had started in Silicon Valley? Can I keep getting that Silicon Valley pay as long as I don't stay in one place too long? Or maybe nomads default to a baseline pay level?
  - ghaff 6y ago
    I see people threatening to do this sort of thing. But, seriously, do you really think you can keep the fact that you leave a couple time zones away from SV a secret from all your coworkers (one of whom will drop a dime on you eventually). "Can you drop in on a meeting tomorrow?" "Um, there's a blizzard in the Midwest." "Well sure, but you live in Santa Cruz, right? No snow on 17."

by netcan 6y ago

MattGaiser 6y ago

I have a evil theory. Geopay will act like as an assumed filter. Top go getter types who are the future leaders will (in theory) come to the office and get the high pay. The less ambitious but still capable workers will move to cheaper places and earn less and be more easily replaceable.

netcan 6y ago
There's an old pg essay about what the dotcom got right. I don't quite remember the details, but I remember that I did take away a "correct but early" interpretation of the whole thing. "First movers takes the whole pie" was taken too literally, eventually dominant online businesses did build unbreachable moats. E Commerce is eating retail. The dotcom was just 5-10 years ealy in its predictions. Anyway... WFH and outsourcing did have a small boom and bust. On WFH, Marissa Meyer pulled the plug and the WFH reversed. "IT Outsourcing" was imminent circa 2000, but a lot of companies had to reverse out of this strategy. It may be that these were right-but-early. WFH & outsourcing are now ready. I also think they are hard to seperate. Once WFH becomes a norm, the labour market is internationalised by default. Not just tech jobs. If you can work from Montana, you can work from Sophia.
- freetime2 6y ago
  Timezones are still going to matter when it comes to remote work. I work on a team that was historically distributed in the US West and JAPAC regions. Communication was fine, because there was enough overlap that we could easily schedule meetings with everyone. But once we started adding team members in Europe, communication became significantly more challenging. There may also be legal reasons for companies to hire within a certain country. For example, government contracts might stipulate that only US citizens are allowed to have access to production servers. So while I definitely think that adoption of remote work will result in more opportunities for people living outside of traditional tech hotspots, I think we will still continue to see individual companies preferring to hire within certain countries and regions.
  - lastofthemojito 6y ago
    Timezones are funny because you still get a wide variance of working hours within them. I worked on a project a while back with an early bird (~6am-2pm) and a night owl (~noon-8pm) who had to coordinate a lot of changes. I (half-)joked that they probably would have coordinated better if one of them was in Reykjavik and the other in LA rather than try to do everything in that narrow window when both were in the office. I know some remote companies have timezone-based policies (e.g., you must be within 4 timezones of NYC). I wonder if we'll see less focus on where the employee is and more on when they are willing to work ("I don't care that you're in Kyev or Mumbai or Jakarta, as long as you'll work our hours").
    - ghaff 6y ago
      I know someone who has their own PR agency who lives in Hawaii. Most (all?) of her clients are US West Coast. She just keeps an early bird schedule.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    Yes. I (US East Coast) work with Europe a lot and that difference (6 hours) feels to me about the limit of frequent ongoing realtime communications. It means you've got a nice window of time that isn't too early for the US or too late for Europe. More than that and someone's taking 5am calls or 10pm calls.
pembrook 6y ago
This is already how organizations work and have always worked. The more ambitious, sociopathic and lucky ones rise up the ladder. The people who don’t care that much about work remain ICs and enjoy the rest of their life outside work. There’s a great blog post about this on Ribbon farm.

lastofthemojito 6y ago

I think we'll see a lot of people try to game it: * Not updating their address with their company after moving to a new, lower-cost location * Using the address of family or friends in a higher-cost area * Renting a PO Box or cheap room or studio in a high-cost area, but spending most time elsewhere I'd imagine we'll see companies pop up offering address verification services - physically and/or digitally tailing employees to find address mismatches. They'll probably sell themselves to large tech employers by saying that the geopay savings incurred more than pay for their services. Maybe this already exists?

ryandrake 6y ago
I'd expect to see this too, but I think anyone planning to do these tactics is walking an extremely thin line between "gaming the system" and fraud. Not to be Debbie Downer, but if someone is thinking about getting a PO box in SF and funneling all their work connections through a silicon valley VPN, they should think about how it will look in front of a judge when their company goes after them.
- lastofthemojito 6y ago
  Yeah, I wouldn't do any of the things I listed either. The potential punishment way outweighs the potential gains. But some people just can't resist trying to "beat the system" or "stick it to The Man" or whatever. I also wonder how things will go for people who take up the digital nomad lifestyle. I think most digital nomads thus far have been freelancers, entrepreneurs, etc. But big Microsoft-esque employers, much like the US tax system, are going to expect you to have a fixed address. If I'm currently based in India but sell my home to hop from location to location every couple of months, am I permanently on India-level pay? What if I did the same thing but had started in Silicon Valley? Can I keep getting that Silicon Valley pay as long as I don't stay in one place too long? Or maybe nomads default to a baseline pay level?
- ghaff 6y ago
  I see people threatening to do this sort of thing. But, seriously, do you really think you can keep the fact that you leave a couple time zones away from SV a secret from all your coworkers (one of whom will drop a dime on you eventually). "Can you drop in on a meeting tomorrow?" "Um, there's a blizzard in the Midwest." "Well sure, but you live in Santa Cruz, right? No snow on 17."