15 ms·

Would it be too cynical to assume this whole thing is going to get shutdown after a few years due to failing to gain enough traction (due to people being wary o

by lhorie 6y ago

Would it be too cynical to assume this whole thing is going to get shutdown after a few years due to failing to gain enough traction (due to people being wary of Google's track record of doing so with their in-google properties)?

vkou 6y ago
Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? Half the time, I don't even know which company that is. Or the longevity of the particular farm from which your grocery's tomatoes have been sourced from? This isn't e-mail. The cost and hassle of switching to a competing service is nearly zero.
- lhorie 6y ago
  > Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? I mean, look at McDonalds and Coca-Cola, for example. I'm skeptical about the idea that simply having the SDV technology somehow also translates to being in a leadership position in terms of regulation, customer support, branding/marketing/being-installed-on-peoples-phones, etc etc. Uber already had to fight uphill regarding regulation in many places so it definitely has some moat now (see, e.g. Uber and Ola in London). Waymo is on completely uncharted territory, regulation-wise. I'm also curious about how the economics and logistics will play out. One criticism of existing ride sharing is not accounting for vehicle depreciation and wear and tear (and this on mass produced vehicles). Waymo vehicles have a lot more expensive technology on board, so I'm curious how that balances out in terms of lidar/etc shelf-life + specialized tech inspections vs ROI. Also, cost of switching goes both ways. If this forces the hand of the other players to roll out SDV (via Cruise partnerships for example), Waymo doesn't necessarily stand to dominate the market, since it's already so crowded w/ well-funded/well-positioned players from all sorts of directions.
  - petra 6y ago
    Yes. There are other important factors. But at least for the next few years, technology is the barrier. So Google can partner with Lyft, for example, to get a good brand, app, customer service, regulation, etc. But on top of that, the brand in this market is the promise "our cars are safe". Google is in a distinct place to own that, because of all the press they had, they press they will have, and by really leading technologically. As for this being a commodity ? I believe we're really far from that.
    - lhorie 6y ago
      I'm not actually convinced that technology is necessarily a barrier. People take ubers today. Heck, people take taxis today. I think a bigger challenge for Waymo is going to be getting trust and regulatory favor. Everyone keeps clinging on to the "oh, comparing prices, waymo is cheaper than uber because there's no driver!" narrative, but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. I can also imagine quite a few other not-so-flattering narratives being relatively realistic: - "I'll never trust some faceless AI w/ my kids in the car! I'd rather pay a bit more and get a real person behind the wheel. Support the local economy, you know?" - "Oh, so you want a license to put an entire class of workers out of jobs under MY government term?" - "I got a trashed waymo car and customer support ignored me when I asked for a refund!" - "I took a waymo after partying a bit too hard and now I'm locked out of all my google accounts with no recourse!" - etc I think people on HN often give way too much weight to the "cool tech" aspect of waymo, and disregard the very real and very significant meat bag aspect.
      - petra 6y ago
        >> but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. Current prices include a safety driver and small scale. Prices should go down in the future. And sure, regulation and trust should be huge barriers. But besides the customer service issue(which seems too pessimistic), Google should be leading over others, on the trust issue(no accidents, more miles, highly skilled tech company), And on the regulation issue(good ties with Washington). But those 2 are still a big risk, like you mention.
- toast0 6y ago
  > Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? Not that particular company no, but the longevity of taxi service in general, yes. Although, it depends on why I'm riding in a taxi. If it's an occasional ride, it's not a big deal if taxi service disappears, I can pay for long term parking at the airport, or call a friend, or something. If it's an everyday ride, loss of service means a big change. The danger of using a Google service is two-fold. The obvious part is, you might get used to it, only for it to be dropped. But also, they may run competitors out of business before dropping it, leaving you without any options.
  - vkou 6y ago
    If all current taxi, and taxi-like services died overnight, the barrier to entry into the industry would be a guy with a high school degree, a cellphone, a driver's license, a beat-up Prius, and a yellow paintjob for it. Your cited risk is not realistic. > The obvious part is, you might get used to it, only for it to be dropped. > But also, they may run competitors out of business before dropping it, leaving you without any options. It's a taxi. You call a number, or click a button on an app. A car arrives and drives you somewhere. The value delivered by the guy in the beat-up Prius, to me, is the exact same as Waymo. It's the most homogenized, commoditized industry in the world. Waymo could corner the entire market, and then go out of business, and the very next day, the streets would be full of independent taxis picking up passengers.
    - toast0 6y ago
      Location matters here. Licensed taxis in Santa Clara county are hard to get reliably outside of the airport and train station. Otherwise, you call a number and someone says a car is coming, and 80% of the time a car does come; the other 20% of the time, you don't get to the airport on time. Yes, it doesn't take much to drive someone somewhere, but if hypothetically Waymo drives Uber and Lyft out of business and then drops out themselves, VCs will have learned that the unlicensed taxi business is a waste of money, and we'd be back to licensed taxis, which is a lot lower quality of service.
- nitrogen 6y ago
  Or the longevity of the particular farm from which your grocery's tomatoes have been sourced from? Some people care. They buy directly from the same families for many decades.
actuator 6y ago
Waymo was started in 2009, they have existed for half of Google's existence. The amount of research and money that has gone into it is not comparable to things like Google Reader. Also, they seem to have the lead over most and the market opportunity is huge.
- fullshark 6y ago
  I'd argue Tesla has the lead. Perhaps their approach has technical limitations that make full self-driving impossible so it's moot but they have the lead.
  - scotth 6y ago
    ...so in what way do they have the lead?
    - fullshark 6y ago
      It's not a certainty
      - fullshark 6y ago
        I think I misunderstood your comment initially and you were merely curious what the argument is. The argument has been made elsewhere in the thread but basically they have a real product with real usage / data creating a positive data feedback loop that will lead to incremental improvements. The question is whether it will improve along an asymptote far from full self driving (what most people believe) or some leap occurs in the future or some technology can be added to their capabilities to achieve full self driving at some point. The latter is possible imo even if highly unlikely. The fact remains they are out there, and you can buy them, and they can do some sort of self-driving. Waymo is an impressive tech demo at this point.
    - jrockway 6y ago
      I guess they have the lead in the sense that you can drive to a Tesla dealership today and buy a car that will kind of sort of drive you home. That's something!
johncena33 6y ago
Every Google related thread is infested with comments like this. We get it. Google shuts down products. How many times we have to have this discussion? Can we now discuss something new?
- gostsamo 6y ago
  Well, not everyone is like Google, ready to stop doing something just because it has been around for long enough. :) Serious now, no, Google does not get a break because they wish so. They have the right to shutter products and we have the right to bitch. Freedom at its best.
- colinmhayes 6y ago
  Well we can discuss something new when google stops axing products or releasing competing products all the time

by lhorie 6y ago

vkou 6y ago

Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? Half the time, I don't even know which company that is. Or the longevity of the particular farm from which your grocery's tomatoes have been sourced from? This isn't e-mail. The cost and hassle of switching to a competing service is nearly zero.

lhorie 6y ago
> Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? I mean, look at McDonalds and Coca-Cola, for example. I'm skeptical about the idea that simply having the SDV technology somehow also translates to being in a leadership position in terms of regulation, customer support, branding/marketing/being-installed-on-peoples-phones, etc etc. Uber already had to fight uphill regarding regulation in many places so it definitely has some moat now (see, e.g. Uber and Ola in London). Waymo is on completely uncharted territory, regulation-wise. I'm also curious about how the economics and logistics will play out. One criticism of existing ride sharing is not accounting for vehicle depreciation and wear and tear (and this on mass produced vehicles). Waymo vehicles have a lot more expensive technology on board, so I'm curious how that balances out in terms of lidar/etc shelf-life + specialized tech inspections vs ROI. Also, cost of switching goes both ways. If this forces the hand of the other players to roll out SDV (via Cruise partnerships for example), Waymo doesn't necessarily stand to dominate the market, since it's already so crowded w/ well-funded/well-positioned players from all sorts of directions.
- petra 6y ago
  Yes. There are other important factors. But at least for the next few years, technology is the barrier. So Google can partner with Lyft, for example, to get a good brand, app, customer service, regulation, etc. But on top of that, the brand in this market is the promise "our cars are safe". Google is in a distinct place to own that, because of all the press they had, they press they will have, and by really leading technologically. As for this being a commodity ? I believe we're really far from that.
  - lhorie 6y ago
    I'm not actually convinced that technology is necessarily a barrier. People take ubers today. Heck, people take taxis today. I think a bigger challenge for Waymo is going to be getting trust and regulatory favor. Everyone keeps clinging on to the "oh, comparing prices, waymo is cheaper than uber because there's no driver!" narrative, but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. I can also imagine quite a few other not-so-flattering narratives being relatively realistic: - "I'll never trust some faceless AI w/ my kids in the car! I'd rather pay a bit more and get a real person behind the wheel. Support the local economy, you know?" - "Oh, so you want a license to put an entire class of workers out of jobs under MY government term?" - "I got a trashed waymo car and customer support ignored me when I asked for a refund!" - "I took a waymo after partying a bit too hard and now I'm locked out of all my google accounts with no recourse!" - etc I think people on HN often give way too much weight to the "cool tech" aspect of waymo, and disregard the very real and very significant meat bag aspect.
    - petra 6y ago
      >> but from what I've seen from the few reports so far, the prices aren't all that different from other services. Current prices include a safety driver and small scale. Prices should go down in the future. And sure, regulation and trust should be huge barriers. But besides the customer service issue(which seems too pessimistic), Google should be leading over others, on the trust issue(no accidents, more miles, highly skilled tech company), And on the regulation issue(good ties with Washington). But those 2 are still a big risk, like you mention.
toast0 6y ago
> Do you really care about the longevity of the taxi company whose cars you are riding in? Not that particular company no, but the longevity of taxi service in general, yes. Although, it depends on why I'm riding in a taxi. If it's an occasional ride, it's not a big deal if taxi service disappears, I can pay for long term parking at the airport, or call a friend, or something. If it's an everyday ride, loss of service means a big change. The danger of using a Google service is two-fold. The obvious part is, you might get used to it, only for it to be dropped. But also, they may run competitors out of business before dropping it, leaving you without any options.
- vkou 6y ago
  If all current taxi, and taxi-like services died overnight, the barrier to entry into the industry would be a guy with a high school degree, a cellphone, a driver's license, a beat-up Prius, and a yellow paintjob for it. Your cited risk is not realistic. > The obvious part is, you might get used to it, only for it to be dropped. > But also, they may run competitors out of business before dropping it, leaving you without any options. It's a taxi. You call a number, or click a button on an app. A car arrives and drives you somewhere. The value delivered by the guy in the beat-up Prius, to me, is the exact same as Waymo. It's the most homogenized, commoditized industry in the world. Waymo could corner the entire market, and then go out of business, and the very next day, the streets would be full of independent taxis picking up passengers.
  - toast0 6y ago
    Location matters here. Licensed taxis in Santa Clara county are hard to get reliably outside of the airport and train station. Otherwise, you call a number and someone says a car is coming, and 80% of the time a car does come; the other 20% of the time, you don't get to the airport on time. Yes, it doesn't take much to drive someone somewhere, but if hypothetically Waymo drives Uber and Lyft out of business and then drops out themselves, VCs will have learned that the unlicensed taxi business is a waste of money, and we'd be back to licensed taxis, which is a lot lower quality of service.
nitrogen 6y ago
Or the longevity of the particular farm from which your grocery's tomatoes have been sourced from? Some people care. They buy directly from the same families for many decades.

actuator 6y ago

Waymo was started in 2009, they have existed for half of Google's existence. The amount of research and money that has gone into it is not comparable to things like Google Reader. Also, they seem to have the lead over most and the market opportunity is huge.

fullshark 6y ago
I'd argue Tesla has the lead. Perhaps their approach has technical limitations that make full self-driving impossible so it's moot but they have the lead.
- scotth 6y ago
  ...so in what way do they have the lead?
  - fullshark 6y ago
    It's not a certainty
    - fullshark 6y ago
      I think I misunderstood your comment initially and you were merely curious what the argument is. The argument has been made elsewhere in the thread but basically they have a real product with real usage / data creating a positive data feedback loop that will lead to incremental improvements. The question is whether it will improve along an asymptote far from full self driving (what most people believe) or some leap occurs in the future or some technology can be added to their capabilities to achieve full self driving at some point. The latter is possible imo even if highly unlikely. The fact remains they are out there, and you can buy them, and they can do some sort of self-driving. Waymo is an impressive tech demo at this point.
  - jrockway 6y ago
    I guess they have the lead in the sense that you can drive to a Tesla dealership today and buy a car that will kind of sort of drive you home. That's something!

johncena33 6y ago

Every Google related thread is infested with comments like this. We get it. Google shuts down products. How many times we have to have this discussion? Can we now discuss something new?

gostsamo 6y ago
Well, not everyone is like Google, ready to stop doing something just because it has been around for long enough. :) Serious now, no, Google does not get a break because they wish so. They have the right to shutter products and we have the right to bitch. Freedom at its best.
colinmhayes 6y ago
Well we can discuss something new when google stops axing products or releasing competing products all the time