4 ms·
Gabriela Gomes was one of the first epidemiologists making this observation (as far back as May), and has found even lower thresholds (10-20%): https://www.med
by timr 6y ago
Gabriela Gomes was one of the first epidemiologists making this observation (as far back as May), and has found even lower thresholds (10-20%):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v2 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v...
- xadhominemx 6y agoWell 20% of NYC had COVID and we are currently seeing outbreaks in communities that have relaxed social distancing measures, so it seems obvious that her calculations are incorrect.
- salmon30salmon 6y agoThat’s part of the thesis of the article. Some populations mix more than others. In the mixing populations the threshold will be higher. In populations with limited mixing, lower. 20% of NYC can have the virus and the general level for herd immunity can still be what is postulated. NYC is incredibly dense compared to the rest of the USA and as such will naturally have more mixing and a higher threshold than say Topeka, Kansas
- xadhominemx 6y agoThe USA as a whole is already at ~10-15% and the rate of infections increased since late summer, and we are not even in flu season
- timr 6y agoJust because the US average is X% doesn't mean that the every community in the whole country is X%. There's clearly heterogeneity in the data.
- xadhominemx 6y agoOk but I assume that is taken into account in your 15-20% estimate