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Why bother to disinfect when you can ventilate? Air with pathogens out, fresh air without pathogens in. (Regarding herd immunity: you're aware that at the curr

Why bother to disinfect when you can ventilate? Air with pathogens out, fresh air without pathogens in. (Regarding herd immunity: you're aware that at the current rate of 55000 people per day, it would take 10 years to infect 60% of 320 million people? Nothing to say of the countless casualties that you would get in the process.)

nradov 6y ago
Since eradicating the virus has become impossible, most national governments are currently pursuing a herd immunity strategy by default. They're just doing it at slightly different rates. In the USA the current daily rate of confirmed new cases is about 43000, not 55000. However there are a large number of "dark matter" cases not counted in official statistics. About 40% of infections are asymptomatic, and many more are paucisymptomatic. Most of those patients never get tested.
- _Microft 6y ago
  What countries are actually following a strategy to reach herd immunity by having "enough" people fall ill and hopefully recover (having "recovered" does not preclude persisting damages btw!)? Most countries are rather waiting for a vaccine to become available and try to minimize the number of sick and dead in the meantime without interfering with economy too much. (54.4k was number of newly confirmed cases on friday 10/2 by the John-Hopkins University btw. I'm aware that the US has inadequate testing [0] and that the real number is going to be a lot higher than this. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-rate-a-crucial-metric-for-understanding-the-pandemic https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-... )
  - nradov 6y ago
    Only New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, and maybe a couple other countries are actively avoiding herd immunity. Regardless of their public statements, other countries aren't actually trying to minimize the number of sick and dead. The public health measures in place are generally insufficient to contain the pandemic, so I predict that many areas will reach a significant level of herd immunity before a safe and effective vaccine is widely available. We won't know whether that prediction is accurate until about a year from now.
  - xorcist 6y ago
    A vaccine is unlikely to wipe out the virus for good. They just aren't that effective. We can't wipe out other coronaviruses or the common cold by vaccination even if we wanted to. It will continue to circulate in the population, just in a less explosive manner. This also means it is possible we will never reach herd immunity in some absolute sense much like we haven't for other coronaviruses.
- spfzero 6y ago
  Agree with "herd immunity strategy by default". Absent a vaccine, about the same percentage of people will become sick, while a larger percentage is exposed but does not become sick. At some point, again minus a vaccine, few enough people will be left as potential replicating hosts, that the virus will not be replicating fast enough to maintain the country's epidemic. Countries will differ by the breadth of the curve, but not the area under it (adjusted per-capita of course). On the other hand, if you are one of the countries with a long curve, and an effective vaccine arrives before the end of it, you benefit.
function_seven 6y ago
Probably cheaper to slot a component into your HVAC than it is to re-engineer it to draw outside hot air, cool it, and still keep interiors at a comfortable level. (Reverse for winter) My house has a fantastic filter along with a UV system as well. When I bought the house I thought it was overkill, but now I’m quite happy it’s there.
- _Microft 6y ago
  The amount of heat in the air is small compared to that in other materials; buildings with stone or concrete walls have a sufficient heat capacity that you can ventilate without temperature changing too much. This works less well for buildings with wooden walls though. Ventilating properly requires discipline though. No tilted/semi-opened windows for prolonged time for example. In winter, heating should be turned off and the windows should be as wide open as possible to minimize the time to exchange air. That's to reduce the loss of heat. 5-10 minutes of ventilating is good enough, usually. We usually don't have air condition here, so I don't know what's the recommended process in the summer. It's common to ventilate like this in Germany in the winter for example. I know (now returned) former German expats that completely missed this development. They still tilt windows and let the heating run all day long.
redis_mlc 6y ago
US buildings are designed to recirculate most air for energy cost reasons. Ventilation sounds like a good idea, but it doesn't match how things work today because of how stale the air becomes. (That's why in Silicon Valley large companies have "air consultants" measure the freshness twice per year and report the rate. I've talked to some.) So my question stands on how and what to do to have more effective air circulation indoors, and what else we should do. And why is this conversation only happening several months into a lockdown. It's as if American government is falling down from learned helplessness.

nradov 6y ago

Since eradicating the virus has become impossible, most national governments are currently pursuing a herd immunity strategy by default. They're just doing it at slightly different rates. In the USA the current daily rate of confirmed new cases is about 43000, not 55000. However there are a large number of "dark matter" cases not counted in official statistics. About 40% of infections are asymptomatic, and many more are paucisymptomatic. Most of those patients never get tested.

_Microft 6y ago
What countries are actually following a strategy to reach herd immunity by having "enough" people fall ill and hopefully recover (having "recovered" does not preclude persisting damages btw!)? Most countries are rather waiting for a vaccine to become available and try to minimize the number of sick and dead in the meantime without interfering with economy too much. (54.4k was number of newly confirmed cases on friday 10/2 by the John-Hopkins University btw. I'm aware that the US has inadequate testing [0] and that the real number is going to be a lot higher than this. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-rate-a-crucial-metric-for-understanding-the-pandemic https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-... )
- nradov 6y ago
  Only New Zealand, Taiwan, Vietnam, and maybe a couple other countries are actively avoiding herd immunity. Regardless of their public statements, other countries aren't actually trying to minimize the number of sick and dead. The public health measures in place are generally insufficient to contain the pandemic, so I predict that many areas will reach a significant level of herd immunity before a safe and effective vaccine is widely available. We won't know whether that prediction is accurate until about a year from now.
- xorcist 6y ago
  A vaccine is unlikely to wipe out the virus for good. They just aren't that effective. We can't wipe out other coronaviruses or the common cold by vaccination even if we wanted to. It will continue to circulate in the population, just in a less explosive manner. This also means it is possible we will never reach herd immunity in some absolute sense much like we haven't for other coronaviruses.
spfzero 6y ago
Agree with "herd immunity strategy by default". Absent a vaccine, about the same percentage of people will become sick, while a larger percentage is exposed but does not become sick. At some point, again minus a vaccine, few enough people will be left as potential replicating hosts, that the virus will not be replicating fast enough to maintain the country's epidemic. Countries will differ by the breadth of the curve, but not the area under it (adjusted per-capita of course). On the other hand, if you are one of the countries with a long curve, and an effective vaccine arrives before the end of it, you benefit.

function_seven 6y ago

Probably cheaper to slot a component into your HVAC than it is to re-engineer it to draw outside hot air, cool it, and still keep interiors at a comfortable level. (Reverse for winter) My house has a fantastic filter along with a UV system as well. When I bought the house I thought it was overkill, but now I’m quite happy it’s there.

_Microft 6y ago
The amount of heat in the air is small compared to that in other materials; buildings with stone or concrete walls have a sufficient heat capacity that you can ventilate without temperature changing too much. This works less well for buildings with wooden walls though. Ventilating properly requires discipline though. No tilted/semi-opened windows for prolonged time for example. In winter, heating should be turned off and the windows should be as wide open as possible to minimize the time to exchange air. That's to reduce the loss of heat. 5-10 minutes of ventilating is good enough, usually. We usually don't have air condition here, so I don't know what's the recommended process in the summer. It's common to ventilate like this in Germany in the winter for example. I know (now returned) former German expats that completely missed this development. They still tilt windows and let the heating run all day long.

redis_mlc 6y ago

US buildings are designed to recirculate most air for energy cost reasons. Ventilation sounds like a good idea, but it doesn't match how things work today because of how stale the air becomes. (That's why in Silicon Valley large companies have "air consultants" measure the freshness twice per year and report the rate. I've talked to some.) So my question stands on how and what to do to have more effective air circulation indoors, and what else we should do. And why is this conversation only happening several months into a lockdown. It's as if American government is falling down from learned helplessness.