4 ms·

A bunch of countries in Asia are evidence that 100% contact tracing and then targetted quarantines work.

timr 6y ago
"A bunch of countries in Asia are evidence that 100% contact tracing and then targetted quarantines work." Are they? China still has cases. So do ~all of the southeast Asian nations, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. The virus is endemic, and while these countries may have controlled it temporarily, they have not eliminated it. Save for perhaps Korea (and maybe China, but it's not clear), most of these countries aren't testing at high rates, so they don't really know what is happening. Unless you believe the virus is hiding out in cats, the only other logical conclusion is that it's spreading asymptomatically, and they're simply not detecting it until it pops up in a symptomatic way.
- com2kid 6y ago
  When case count is super low, you can do contact tracing and keep it from flaring up, all while having live return to mostly normal. Vietnam had had 35 deaths in total. Singapore, an international transit hub, 27 deaths. Thailand, 59. Read about how Vietnam handled coronavirus. Heavy lock downs at the very beginning quarantine for everyone entering the country, and then localized lockdowns in areas that had breakouts combined with extreme levels of contact tracing. People in other countries are back to school, back to work, back to living normally.
  - timr 6y ago
    You're shifting the goalposts. None of those countries have returned to "mostly normal". Maybe people aren't trapped in their houses by police, but that's "normal" only if you have a twisted view of normalcy. All of them have stopped international travel and closed their borders. Vietnam has a mandatory quarantine -- in government-run centers -- for most people who do enter the country. Singapore is similar. Thailand has a two-week quarantine, and their economy is devastated, as essentially all tourism has stopped. All of those countries have extensive restrictions in place, and have only recently begun to re-open their own businesses. For example, Vietnam just started re-opening businesses in mid-September: https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-business-operations-and-the-coronavirus-updates.html/ https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-business-opera... Singapore, while much better than before, still has widespread community transmission: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3103353/singapore-turns-corner-covid-19-fight-experts-warn-battle-not https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3103353/sin... It still has restrictions on group gatherings, people can't to to restaurants in groups larger than 5, and alcohol can't be sold after 10:30. I guess this counts as "mostly normal", right? So basically, all of those countries are still locked down, or have just barely re-opened, and even then, there's no suppression, just a lower level of community transmission than before. It's far too early to be declaring victory. You can control the virus for a time when you trap your society inside, deprive them of their livelihood and otherwise accumulate huge social and economic costs. Then you stop, and the virus comes back.

timr 6y ago

"A bunch of countries in Asia are evidence that 100% contact tracing and then targetted quarantines work." Are they? China still has cases. So do ~all of the southeast Asian nations, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. The virus is endemic, and while these countries may have controlled it temporarily, they have not eliminated it. Save for perhaps Korea (and maybe China, but it's not clear), most of these countries aren't testing at high rates, so they don't really know what is happening. Unless you believe the virus is hiding out in cats, the only other logical conclusion is that it's spreading asymptomatically, and they're simply not detecting it until it pops up in a symptomatic way.

com2kid 6y ago
When case count is super low, you can do contact tracing and keep it from flaring up, all while having live return to mostly normal. Vietnam had had 35 deaths in total. Singapore, an international transit hub, 27 deaths. Thailand, 59. Read about how Vietnam handled coronavirus. Heavy lock downs at the very beginning quarantine for everyone entering the country, and then localized lockdowns in areas that had breakouts combined with extreme levels of contact tracing. People in other countries are back to school, back to work, back to living normally.
- timr 6y ago
  You're shifting the goalposts. None of those countries have returned to "mostly normal". Maybe people aren't trapped in their houses by police, but that's "normal" only if you have a twisted view of normalcy. All of them have stopped international travel and closed their borders. Vietnam has a mandatory quarantine -- in government-run centers -- for most people who do enter the country. Singapore is similar. Thailand has a two-week quarantine, and their economy is devastated, as essentially all tourism has stopped. All of those countries have extensive restrictions in place, and have only recently begun to re-open their own businesses. For example, Vietnam just started re-opening businesses in mid-September: https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-business-operations-and-the-coronavirus-updates.html/ https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnam-business-opera... Singapore, while much better than before, still has widespread community transmission: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3103353/singapore-turns-corner-covid-19-fight-experts-warn-battle-not https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3103353/sin... It still has restrictions on group gatherings, people can't to to restaurants in groups larger than 5, and alcohol can't be sold after 10:30. I guess this counts as "mostly normal", right? So basically, all of those countries are still locked down, or have just barely re-opened, and even then, there's no suppression, just a lower level of community transmission than before. It's far too early to be declaring victory. You can control the virus for a time when you trap your society inside, deprive them of their livelihood and otherwise accumulate huge social and economic costs. Then you stop, and the virus comes back.