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I live in NZ, which has taken the opposite approach. We locked down early and hard, and there was a definite hit to the economy (although not as bad as some ha

I live in NZ, which has taken the opposite approach. We locked down early and hard, and there was a definite hit to the economy (although not as bad as some had feared). We eliminated Covid in the country. There was a tiny second wave which forced our largest city back into lockdown, but that has been lifted. Aside from international travel, Covid now has basically zero impact on my day to day life. Because there is effectly 0 chance of communitry transmission at the moment, life has essentially returned to normal. Bars, restaurants, etc are open and buzzing. All this and our case numbers are lower than almost any other countries death numbers. There is no way I would rather live in Sweden.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
vkou 6y ago
The same thing has happened in China. A hard lockdown, a near-eradication of the virus, followed by a lifting of economic restrictions.
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  Why is someone being downvoted for saying factual information? Vietnam has also done so.
  - mrguyorama 6y ago
    I'm guessing some people are skeptical about China's claims about having no more cases. It's hard to trust anything they say. That or they are so hardcore crazy "My freedoms above all else" that they would rather 250k die than they be asked to stay in for a few weeks
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      Sure, but this isn't evidence based skepticism, it's just unfounded skepticism. In any case, Vietnam used the same tactics and arrived to the same result, so I don't understand why anything else would be expect for the same tactics being implemented in China.
      - hurrdurr2 6y ago
        Turns out HN is just another ideological bubble where wrong-think is actively discouraged via the voting system. Edit: Pretty "unfortunate".
        pessimizer 6y ago
        "Ironic" isn't a synonym for "unfortunate," "unusual," "ineffective," or "sarcastic."
        hurrdurr2 6y ago
        Typical HN comment. Being pedantic versus arguing the point.
      - mellosouls 6y ago
        It's evidence-based in the sense that China has long established itself as a society with a poor human rights and censorship record. Clearly any announcements that suggest an outlier positive performance in this situation will be taken with a pinch of salt, regardless of whether they are true or not.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        The issue is that hiding the millions of cases there would be if the virus was not eradicated given the end of all containment measures would be completely impossible. Also, this isn't outlier-positive performance, it is the expectation given the measures that were taken. I don't see how the virus could spread with the strict measures that were imposed.
      - throwmeaway_pls 6y ago
        Both Vietnam and China have a track record of covering up disease outbreaks. They also both use homegrown tests for COVID-19. It is not unreasonable to discount their figures without independent verification.
    - chrisco255 6y ago
      It's been over 6 months. And being asked to is quite different than being bolted into your apartment complex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ald2FIAGRvs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ald2FIAGRvs
      - pessimizer 6y ago
        > It's been over 6 months. For us. It's been over for them for a while.
        chrisco255 6y ago
        For China? How long exactly, mate? You got CCP sanctioned stats on this? How reliable are they, by the way?
  - hurrdurr2 6y ago
    Because HN, in general, hates China with a passion. Please self-censor and refrain from saying anything positive about China in the future or you will be down-voted to oblivion.
    - hurrdurr2 6y ago
      Your idiotic down-votes are just proving my point. Keep them coming.
      - hurrdurr2 6y ago
        HN aka dipshits who think they're smarter than reddit users.
hnracer 6y ago
That can only ever work in a small island country like NZ or a country with totalitarian control over the populace (China)
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  It worked in China and Vietnam, neither of which are small or island countries. As for your edit according to which this is only possible in large countries if they are totalitarian, the tactics China used are exactly the same that NZ has used, and are fully consititutional in the United States. Basically, telling people not to leave their homes for two weeks, using the Army to deliver food and supplies, and stopping travel between cities. These tactics have been implemented historically in the US in other epidemics and pandemics, so unless your claim is that the US is authoritarian, I don't follow.
  - hnracer 6y ago
    China has totalitarian control over its populace which can simulate the level of control possible in a small island democracy. Vietnam I haven't studied.
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      It is fully constitutional in the US to stop travel and enforce quarantine in cities, and has been done before, and this was only ever needed in a select few cities in China. Here in Canada I'm not allowed for the next 28 days to socialize with anyone outside of work. This is more restrictive than what was imposed on most cities in China.
      - hnracer 6y ago
        You can't nail people's door shut in the US with them inside, which happened in Wuhan. You also can't unilaterally and swiftly implement extreme lockdown measures that would be required, only China can move that quickly with its one party dictatorship. So it's not a valid comparison being made here.
just-juan-post 6y ago
> We eliminated Covid in the country Verifiable untrue.
- cgrealy 6y ago
  That's an odd way of spelling "factually correct" https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-zero-active-coronavirus-cases-here-are-5-measures-to-keep-it-that-way-139862 https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-zero-active-cor... NZ eliminated Covid in the country. There were no active cases at one point. The fact that another case came into the country does not change that fact.
  - just-juan-post 6y ago
    Whoops you missed something New Zealand Reports No New COVID Cases as Country Nears Elimination for Second Time https://www.newsweek.com/new-zealand-reports-no-new-covid-cases-country-nears-elimination-second-time-1532778 https://www.newsweek.com/new-zealand-reports-no-new-covid-ca... And a third is coming. And a fourth. And a fifth. At what point will you admit that it won't be eliminated?
    - cgrealy 6y ago
      I fail to see your point. We eliminated the virus in the country. There were no active cases of COVID, and we're on track to eliminate it again. If your house has rats and you call an exterminator, you don't say you still have rats because other houses do and they might show up again.
      - just-juan-post 6y ago
        Your idea of eliminated is "no positive cases for several weeks" Mine is longer term. > I fail to see your point I know you do. I know you would. My point is that you have not eliminated it. If it keeps coming back it's not eliminated is it?
        6y ago
newacct583 6y ago
New Zealand, for sure, has had probably the most effective response (helped by geography, for sure) among western nations. That said: having it controlled now doesn't mean that it will stay controlled forever. As we're seeing right now in Spain, France and the US plains states, even very low steady state infection rates can still flare up. Then you spend a week watching people die, locking down, and watch rates go back down slowly. And then... realistically it probably happens a third time. Or a fourth. Everyone needs to be taking this seriously. NZ isn't immune to the next outbreak, nor Sweden. But no: in areas with known-low and steady infection rates, a full lockdown isn't necessarily required. Still: stay outside, stay masked, stay apart. Break those rules as little as possible.
makomk 6y ago
I've seen people complain that talking about Sweden's approach is pointless because other countries that took the same approach couldn't expect the same results, but that's actually much more clear for New Zealand. For a start, just the inherent leakage of infections into the country through the quarantine hotel system, imports, etc - which causes a new imported cluster say every hundred days or less at New Zealand scale - means that a larger country would never reach the point where they eliminate Covid. Then there's the problem that other countries are just too well connected compared to an island nation a thousand miles from anywhere - if you tried the same thing in EU countries or the UK, you'd run into the problem that they rely on a constant stream of commercial trucking traffic across the border carrying important things like food, people live in different countries from their workplace, etc, all of which help spread the virus.
- return1 6y ago
  I dont think people catch the virus through contaminated surfaces. It s almost always airborne transmission
  - makomk 6y ago
    All those cross-border trucks have drivers, just like the ships importing stuff into New Zealand have crew. Unlike ships, the trucks don't just stop at the border and unload - they go on to destinations within the country, use trucking facilities along the route, etc. It's the people that're the main risk rather than the goods they carry. (Though when trying to eliminate the virus altogether even rare events can be a problem. There's some evidence that Covid may have spread to a NZ quarantine hotel worker via a contaminated surface and nearly escaped into the community. Obviously, the bigger the country the more likely rare events are to occur too.)
m0zg 6y ago
You seem to be making the common mistake of assuming that COVID is "over" in your country. COVID is endemic now - it's not going away. How long can you guys stay isolated from the rest of the world?
- cgrealy 6y ago
  No, that's a really important point. Right now, the plan is to keep the borders closed until a vaccine is ready. If that doesn't happen within a reasonable timeframe, then we definitely have to reassess our strategy. But in the meantime, yes, COVID is effectively "over" within the country.
  - m0zg 6y ago
    But it won't be "ready" for at least 6-9 more months, if it's ever "ready" at all. No vaccine exists for any other coronavirus. And when it's "ready" you won't know if it's safer than the virus itself, since there wasn't time to conduct large-scale, long-duration safety studies. I mean, sure it's nice to be able to shut down borders for a year and a half, but you must see how this is not a realistic option for most other countries, including Sweden, so it's not really a valid comparison in the first place.
    - robocat 6y ago
      > this is not a realistic option for most other countries, including Sweden It is also a question of how much economic cost a country is willing to incur. Trucks can swap trailers/tractors at borders so drivers never cross border. International Tourism can be completely shutdown. Borders of some countries could be closed by the army, incurring personal costs to anyone that normally would cross the border regularly. Tourism in New Zealand contributed 6% of the country's GDP and supported 8% of New Zealand's workforce. Most of that was international so has dropped radically, and there are other economic costs to NZ on top of that. There are also the personal costs of families that are split between countries and people that can’t get to important life events like weddings or funerals etc. NZ has decided that the economic costs are worth the gains of avoiding 2500 early deaths (expected 10yr decrease in lifetime for each) and x0000 long-term health problems. I don’t know if the gains are worth the costs, but I am pleased we have given ourselves time and avoided making a rash decision to incur those costs.
ffggvv 6y ago
no offense but nz and other islands are extremely easy to control. as long as you close your border early and don’t allow it to take root in the first place, you don’t have to worry.
- kingofpandora 6y ago
  But you don't need to be an island to close your borders. Yes, some borders are porous and it would be ineffectual, but fundamentally, if a country commits to isolation, they will be isolated, island or not.
  - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
    After decades of the single market, any EU country relies on at least a steady stream of freight trucks to keep its population fed, and fruit pickers have to be brought in seasonally from other countries, because otherwise all that produce will simply rot in the field, etc. Completely closing borders would simply not be feasible without years of preparation.
- adventured 6y ago
  To that point, Hawaii currently has 1/7th the per capita mortality rate of the entire US. Hawaii's mortality rate is nearly 1/3 the rate of Canada (which has done a solid job by comparison to the US) and 1/6 the rate of Sweden. Finland, which has one of the elite outcomes in the West, is how far you have to go to find a better outcome (Finland's mortality rate is only 2/3 that of Hawaii).
- just-juan-post 6y ago
  Yep, that is exactly what people like the OP fail to grasp. Based on NZ's past actions I would bet they come out of total lockdown sometime in mid 2022 or about 2 years from now. If the people of NZ are fine living this way for the next 2 years while their economy and lively hoods crumble then that is their business. No way in hell I would let that silently happen to me.
  - 6y ago
barbs 6y ago
We're jealously watching from across the water in Melbourne :(
just-juan-post 6y ago
> Aside from international travel Could you tell us how you feel about your fellow countrymen and women who work in travel and who's lives have been completely upended (sometimes permanently) by the affects of the lockdowns?
- VelNZ 6y ago
  Or those such as myself who were forcibly separated from our partners overseas for 5 months? I had to fly to Dubai to reunite with my partner just so I could bring her back to NZ with me. I'm lucky to be able to do so; remote job, no kids, have savings. We have a Facebook group with 1,400 members in the same position who were and are suffering for months from the extreme border closure, many are married and have children.
  - cgrealy 6y ago
    No one is claiming it's a good situation. But given the alternative was 000's of deaths, that is just the unfortunate reality. There's no good answer here, only a least bad alternative.
brnt 6y ago
Somehow any comparison with NZ about ability to isolate seems rigged...
kareemm 6y ago
You don't have to be an isolated island to pull this off. I live in Nova Scotia, Canada. We've bubbled with three surrounding provinces (~2.5 million people) and are in basically the same boat as NZ. We've had < 10 known cases since June IIRC, often with < 5. We're currently at two known cases. We are NOT an island nation but have taken one hard line measure that has been effective: a 14 day quarantine when you come here from anywhere outside the four-province bubble We also have a largely compliant population when it comes to social distancing and masking in public indoor places. We also have the benefit of being a discretionary trip for most people who visit - there isn't a ton of travel in and out of the main cities compared with e.g. Toronto or Vancouver. But life is pretty much back to normal. Restaurants + bars buzzing (at 50% capacity), retail open, no lockdown, etc.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

vkou 6y ago

The same thing has happened in China. A hard lockdown, a near-eradication of the virus, followed by a lifting of economic restrictions.

sudosysgen 6y ago
Why is someone being downvoted for saying factual information? Vietnam has also done so.
- mrguyorama 6y ago
  I'm guessing some people are skeptical about China's claims about having no more cases. It's hard to trust anything they say. That or they are so hardcore crazy "My freedoms above all else" that they would rather 250k die than they be asked to stay in for a few weeks
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    Sure, but this isn't evidence based skepticism, it's just unfounded skepticism. In any case, Vietnam used the same tactics and arrived to the same result, so I don't understand why anything else would be expect for the same tactics being implemented in China.
    - hurrdurr2 6y ago
      Turns out HN is just another ideological bubble where wrong-think is actively discouraged via the voting system. Edit: Pretty "unfortunate".
      - pessimizer 6y ago
        "Ironic" isn't a synonym for "unfortunate," "unusual," "ineffective," or "sarcastic."
        hurrdurr2 6y ago
        Typical HN comment. Being pedantic versus arguing the point.
    - mellosouls 6y ago
      It's evidence-based in the sense that China has long established itself as a society with a poor human rights and censorship record. Clearly any announcements that suggest an outlier positive performance in this situation will be taken with a pinch of salt, regardless of whether they are true or not.
      - sudosysgen 6y ago
        The issue is that hiding the millions of cases there would be if the virus was not eradicated given the end of all containment measures would be completely impossible. Also, this isn't outlier-positive performance, it is the expectation given the measures that were taken. I don't see how the virus could spread with the strict measures that were imposed.
    - throwmeaway_pls 6y ago
      Both Vietnam and China have a track record of covering up disease outbreaks. They also both use homegrown tests for COVID-19. It is not unreasonable to discount their figures without independent verification.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    It's been over 6 months. And being asked to is quite different than being bolted into your apartment complex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ald2FIAGRvs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ald2FIAGRvs
    - pessimizer 6y ago
      > It's been over 6 months. For us. It's been over for them for a while.
      - chrisco255 6y ago
        For China? How long exactly, mate? You got CCP sanctioned stats on this? How reliable are they, by the way?
- hurrdurr2 6y ago
  Because HN, in general, hates China with a passion. Please self-censor and refrain from saying anything positive about China in the future or you will be down-voted to oblivion.
  - hurrdurr2 6y ago
    Your idiotic down-votes are just proving my point. Keep them coming.
    - hurrdurr2 6y ago
      HN aka dipshits who think they're smarter than reddit users.

hnracer 6y ago

That can only ever work in a small island country like NZ or a country with totalitarian control over the populace (China)

sudosysgen 6y ago
It worked in China and Vietnam, neither of which are small or island countries. As for your edit according to which this is only possible in large countries if they are totalitarian, the tactics China used are exactly the same that NZ has used, and are fully consititutional in the United States. Basically, telling people not to leave their homes for two weeks, using the Army to deliver food and supplies, and stopping travel between cities. These tactics have been implemented historically in the US in other epidemics and pandemics, so unless your claim is that the US is authoritarian, I don't follow.
- hnracer 6y ago
  China has totalitarian control over its populace which can simulate the level of control possible in a small island democracy. Vietnam I haven't studied.
  - sudosysgen 6y ago
    It is fully constitutional in the US to stop travel and enforce quarantine in cities, and has been done before, and this was only ever needed in a select few cities in China. Here in Canada I'm not allowed for the next 28 days to socialize with anyone outside of work. This is more restrictive than what was imposed on most cities in China.
    - hnracer 6y ago
      You can't nail people's door shut in the US with them inside, which happened in Wuhan. You also can't unilaterally and swiftly implement extreme lockdown measures that would be required, only China can move that quickly with its one party dictatorship. So it's not a valid comparison being made here.

just-juan-post 6y ago

> We eliminated Covid in the country Verifiable untrue.

cgrealy 6y ago
That's an odd way of spelling "factually correct" https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-zero-active-coronavirus-cases-here-are-5-measures-to-keep-it-that-way-139862 https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-hits-zero-active-cor... NZ eliminated Covid in the country. There were no active cases at one point. The fact that another case came into the country does not change that fact.
- just-juan-post 6y ago
  Whoops you missed something New Zealand Reports No New COVID Cases as Country Nears Elimination for Second Time https://www.newsweek.com/new-zealand-reports-no-new-covid-cases-country-nears-elimination-second-time-1532778 https://www.newsweek.com/new-zealand-reports-no-new-covid-ca... And a third is coming. And a fourth. And a fifth. At what point will you admit that it won't be eliminated?
  - cgrealy 6y ago
    I fail to see your point. We eliminated the virus in the country. There were no active cases of COVID, and we're on track to eliminate it again. If your house has rats and you call an exterminator, you don't say you still have rats because other houses do and they might show up again.
    - just-juan-post 6y ago
      Your idea of eliminated is "no positive cases for several weeks" Mine is longer term. > I fail to see your point I know you do. I know you would. My point is that you have not eliminated it. If it keeps coming back it's not eliminated is it?
      - 6y ago

newacct583 6y ago

New Zealand, for sure, has had probably the most effective response (helped by geography, for sure) among western nations. That said: having it controlled now doesn't mean that it will stay controlled forever. As we're seeing right now in Spain, France and the US plains states, even very low steady state infection rates can still flare up. Then you spend a week watching people die, locking down, and watch rates go back down slowly. And then... realistically it probably happens a third time. Or a fourth. Everyone needs to be taking this seriously. NZ isn't immune to the next outbreak, nor Sweden. But no: in areas with known-low and steady infection rates, a full lockdown isn't necessarily required. Still: stay outside, stay masked, stay apart. Break those rules as little as possible.

makomk 6y ago

I've seen people complain that talking about Sweden's approach is pointless because other countries that took the same approach couldn't expect the same results, but that's actually much more clear for New Zealand. For a start, just the inherent leakage of infections into the country through the quarantine hotel system, imports, etc - which causes a new imported cluster say every hundred days or less at New Zealand scale - means that a larger country would never reach the point where they eliminate Covid. Then there's the problem that other countries are just too well connected compared to an island nation a thousand miles from anywhere - if you tried the same thing in EU countries or the UK, you'd run into the problem that they rely on a constant stream of commercial trucking traffic across the border carrying important things like food, people live in different countries from their workplace, etc, all of which help spread the virus.

return1 6y ago
I dont think people catch the virus through contaminated surfaces. It s almost always airborne transmission
- makomk 6y ago
  All those cross-border trucks have drivers, just like the ships importing stuff into New Zealand have crew. Unlike ships, the trucks don't just stop at the border and unload - they go on to destinations within the country, use trucking facilities along the route, etc. It's the people that're the main risk rather than the goods they carry. (Though when trying to eliminate the virus altogether even rare events can be a problem. There's some evidence that Covid may have spread to a NZ quarantine hotel worker via a contaminated surface and nearly escaped into the community. Obviously, the bigger the country the more likely rare events are to occur too.)

m0zg 6y ago

You seem to be making the common mistake of assuming that COVID is "over" in your country. COVID is endemic now - it's not going away. How long can you guys stay isolated from the rest of the world?

cgrealy 6y ago
No, that's a really important point. Right now, the plan is to keep the borders closed until a vaccine is ready. If that doesn't happen within a reasonable timeframe, then we definitely have to reassess our strategy. But in the meantime, yes, COVID is effectively "over" within the country.
- m0zg 6y ago
  But it won't be "ready" for at least 6-9 more months, if it's ever "ready" at all. No vaccine exists for any other coronavirus. And when it's "ready" you won't know if it's safer than the virus itself, since there wasn't time to conduct large-scale, long-duration safety studies. I mean, sure it's nice to be able to shut down borders for a year and a half, but you must see how this is not a realistic option for most other countries, including Sweden, so it's not really a valid comparison in the first place.
  - robocat 6y ago
    > this is not a realistic option for most other countries, including Sweden It is also a question of how much economic cost a country is willing to incur. Trucks can swap trailers/tractors at borders so drivers never cross border. International Tourism can be completely shutdown. Borders of some countries could be closed by the army, incurring personal costs to anyone that normally would cross the border regularly. Tourism in New Zealand contributed 6% of the country's GDP and supported 8% of New Zealand's workforce. Most of that was international so has dropped radically, and there are other economic costs to NZ on top of that. There are also the personal costs of families that are split between countries and people that can’t get to important life events like weddings or funerals etc. NZ has decided that the economic costs are worth the gains of avoiding 2500 early deaths (expected 10yr decrease in lifetime for each) and x0000 long-term health problems. I don’t know if the gains are worth the costs, but I am pleased we have given ourselves time and avoided making a rash decision to incur those costs.

ffggvv 6y ago

no offense but nz and other islands are extremely easy to control. as long as you close your border early and don’t allow it to take root in the first place, you don’t have to worry.

kingofpandora 6y ago
But you don't need to be an island to close your borders. Yes, some borders are porous and it would be ineffectual, but fundamentally, if a country commits to isolation, they will be isolated, island or not.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  After decades of the single market, any EU country relies on at least a steady stream of freight trucks to keep its population fed, and fruit pickers have to be brought in seasonally from other countries, because otherwise all that produce will simply rot in the field, etc. Completely closing borders would simply not be feasible without years of preparation.
adventured 6y ago
To that point, Hawaii currently has 1/7th the per capita mortality rate of the entire US. Hawaii's mortality rate is nearly 1/3 the rate of Canada (which has done a solid job by comparison to the US) and 1/6 the rate of Sweden. Finland, which has one of the elite outcomes in the West, is how far you have to go to find a better outcome (Finland's mortality rate is only 2/3 that of Hawaii).
just-juan-post 6y ago
Yep, that is exactly what people like the OP fail to grasp. Based on NZ's past actions I would bet they come out of total lockdown sometime in mid 2022 or about 2 years from now. If the people of NZ are fine living this way for the next 2 years while their economy and lively hoods crumble then that is their business. No way in hell I would let that silently happen to me.
- 6y ago

barbs 6y ago

We're jealously watching from across the water in Melbourne :(

just-juan-post 6y ago

> Aside from international travel Could you tell us how you feel about your fellow countrymen and women who work in travel and who's lives have been completely upended (sometimes permanently) by the affects of the lockdowns?

VelNZ 6y ago
Or those such as myself who were forcibly separated from our partners overseas for 5 months? I had to fly to Dubai to reunite with my partner just so I could bring her back to NZ with me. I'm lucky to be able to do so; remote job, no kids, have savings. We have a Facebook group with 1,400 members in the same position who were and are suffering for months from the extreme border closure, many are married and have children.
- cgrealy 6y ago
  No one is claiming it's a good situation. But given the alternative was 000's of deaths, that is just the unfortunate reality. There's no good answer here, only a least bad alternative.

brnt 6y ago

Somehow any comparison with NZ about ability to isolate seems rigged...

kareemm 6y ago

You don't have to be an isolated island to pull this off. I live in Nova Scotia, Canada. We've bubbled with three surrounding provinces (~2.5 million people) and are in basically the same boat as NZ. We've had < 10 known cases since June IIRC, often with < 5. We're currently at two known cases. We are NOT an island nation but have taken one hard line measure that has been effective: a 14 day quarantine when you come here from anywhere outside the four-province bubble We also have a largely compliant population when it comes to social distancing and masking in public indoor places. We also have the benefit of being a discretionary trip for most people who visit - there isn't a ton of travel in and out of the main cities compared with e.g. Toronto or Vancouver. But life is pretty much back to normal. Restaurants + bars buzzing (at 50% capacity), retail open, no lockdown, etc.