8 ms·

We're in the middle of transitioning from making decisions based on pure intuition to being purely logical and data-driven... I wonder if that's such a good ide

We're in the middle of transitioning from making decisions based on pure intuition to being purely logical and data-driven... I wonder if that's such a good idea. There was this article a while back I read that talked about how native peoples made poisonous foods edible. Some processes were extremely convoluted and unreasonable, but it worked, and efforts by a "reasonable" man to make the process more efficient would have certainly doomed the whole tribe. Examples like that really make me question the idea that an efficient economy is the best economy (let alone if capitalism and free markets are ideal).

Siira 6y ago
This is a general counterargument to anything different from the status quo. You should never trust general counterarguments.
- jskdvsksnb 6y ago
  > You should never trust general counterarguments. Noted.
qcq36 6y ago
There’s something rather extraordinary about this community, in particular, throwing a fit about advertising in products. This discussion has gone from “fuck that guy” — overlooking that almost every employer represented here has one and the larger employers have entire divisions of them — to “capitalism is bad” in three messages. That’s impressive. It’s almost as if the root cause of why these business models are horrible is slowly becoming more obvious to the people who engineer more clever ways to collect data and serve advertisements to enable those business models (or who work in a cost center orbiting such an organization). Samsung learned from the industry represented here and it’s disconcerting to observe the lack of self-awareness in the vitriol being leveled at them from here. Equally disconcerting is that the same people rending their clothes over this probably overlook their Gmail messages being scanned and ads in their inbox, but a television, mein gott, a bridge too far. This is your world, HN. We all live in it now. Sucks, no?
- pjc50 6y ago
  Fairly sure HN has been complaining about this for years. We're not a hivemind; it's not even the case that most posters work for FAANG, ycombinator or even "startups" per se.
- ClumsyPilot 6y ago
  "Samsung learned from the industry represented here" Not everyone on HN works in adtech, and very likely none of the people in this thread do either.
- com2kid 6y ago
  Samsung positions themselves as a high end brand. These ads are appearing on higher end tv models. If their $300 bargain basement basement tv was ads supported to keep the price low, eeh, maybe. But that isn't the case here. Consumer Gmail is free. If Office 365 premium ever starts showing ads, people will also become upset.
  - Sohcahtoa82 6y ago
    > If Office 365 premium ever starts showing ads, people will also become upset. And Microsoft will do nothing about it because people will use it anyways.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
  Hm. Maybe. Maybe capitalism in its current form is bad nonetheless? Or an exploiting sham? How do you explain companies like BlackRock, Inc. and similar being on the boards of almost any important corporation? Isn't that a conflict of interest? Or to put it another way, they are implementing communism by other means, with the same bad outcomes for the masses. What difference is "Strategische Konzernentwicklung/corporate development/group development" to a Soviet 5-year plan, aggravated by quarterly reviews and HFT? Gennadiy Gosplanovich would approve with a hysteric laugh. I know. Been in several of them. Fortunately got out :) edit: Of course you could call me a stoned hippie leftover from the 70ies, but that really was before my time. I'd counter that with management is on coke, crack or other medications which influence empathy in a bad way. Simple as that. (Now playing "Ka-Ching!" with a pitchfork on the karmic harp)
chongli 6y ago
Was this the essay you were referring to [1]? I think you’re bang on with this comparison. My dad and I have long complained how (for example) grocery stores seem to constantly cancel our favourite products. We know it’s not the manufacturer because the product is still on their website. My dad and I even have a term for the people in the head office who make the decision to phase out our favourite products: spreadsheet guys. It really captures the inanity of a person who just sits around crunching numbers all day and killing off people’s beloved products and showing small percentage quarterly gains... while destroying goodwill and long term customer loyalty in the process. [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret...
- lsaferite 6y ago
  Number driven vs. people driven is how I usually delineate these things. I find myself strongly in the people driven camp and dealing with purely numbers driven people is highly frustrating.
- taneq 6y ago
  Hmm. I feel like there's a spiritual connection between your spreadsheet guys and the apocryphal product expert at Campbell's Soups or wherever that tried to focus-test "the perfect soup" that would optimize sales. In the story, they realized that there's no one "perfect soup" and they had to create different varieties. Likewise, there's no such thing as "the best product" at a supermarket. Everyone has their own spread of products and if you cancel low-performing product lines, sometimes it has unexpected effects. (Anecdatum: We used to exclusively do grocery shopping at Woolworths until they stopped selling the cans of chilli beans that we use for nachos. Now we do maybe 1/4 of our grocery shopping at Coles instead, costing Woolworths thousands of dollars a year in lost sales, just because we needed some chilli beans and might as well get the rest of our groceries while we're there.)
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    > Likewise, there's no such thing as "the best product" at a supermarket. I think the core observation behind the job of the spreadsheet guys is that, at scale, the choices within a family of products will approximate a normal distribution - so there will be a "best product" within each family; with a limited shelf space and a lot of different products to sell, this gives them a clear way to optimize for maximum revenue.
walleeee 6y ago
So long as a human remains in the loop somewhere no decision is "purely logical and data-driven", although you make a good point about the risks of chasing efficiency over all else
gmadsen 6y ago
in what world is removing poison to an acceptable level unreasonable? If the process is complicated and convoluted, but people don't die, then that seems reasonable to me. I don't really follow this line of thinking.
- nootropicat 6y ago
  I think he meant that the process wasn't explained as 'removing poison' but as 'this is how we do things' or 'it's to appease the spirits'. If the poison was something that's slowly acting (years) 'rational' way that would remove 'superstitions' would poison everyone. Of course, knowing the real reason is preferable, but not always possible, especially in a premodern setting. Before the discovery of prions nobody really knew why cannibalism is dangerous, yet it was a taboo in most of the civilized world.
dfxm12 6y ago
It would be more correct to say that today, decisions are being based on increasing short term gain. I think that's the issue more so than transitioning decision making to be based on logic and data and also supports your conclusion about the economy better.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]

Siira 6y ago

This is a general counterargument to anything different from the status quo. You should never trust general counterarguments.

jskdvsksnb 6y ago
> You should never trust general counterarguments. Noted.

qcq36 6y ago

There’s something rather extraordinary about this community, in particular, throwing a fit about advertising in products. This discussion has gone from “fuck that guy” — overlooking that almost every employer represented here has one and the larger employers have entire divisions of them — to “capitalism is bad” in three messages. That’s impressive. It’s almost as if the root cause of why these business models are horrible is slowly becoming more obvious to the people who engineer more clever ways to collect data and serve advertisements to enable those business models (or who work in a cost center orbiting such an organization). Samsung learned from the industry represented here and it’s disconcerting to observe the lack of self-awareness in the vitriol being leveled at them from here. Equally disconcerting is that the same people rending their clothes over this probably overlook their Gmail messages being scanned and ads in their inbox, but a television, mein gott, a bridge too far. This is your world, HN. We all live in it now. Sucks, no?

pjc50 6y ago
Fairly sure HN has been complaining about this for years. We're not a hivemind; it's not even the case that most posters work for FAANG, ycombinator or even "startups" per se.
ClumsyPilot 6y ago
"Samsung learned from the industry represented here" Not everyone on HN works in adtech, and very likely none of the people in this thread do either.
com2kid 6y ago
Samsung positions themselves as a high end brand. These ads are appearing on higher end tv models. If their $300 bargain basement basement tv was ads supported to keep the price low, eeh, maybe. But that isn't the case here. Consumer Gmail is free. If Office 365 premium ever starts showing ads, people will also become upset.
- Sohcahtoa82 6y ago
  > If Office 365 premium ever starts showing ads, people will also become upset. And Microsoft will do nothing about it because people will use it anyways.
LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago
Hm. Maybe. Maybe capitalism in its current form is bad nonetheless? Or an exploiting sham? How do you explain companies like BlackRock, Inc. and similar being on the boards of almost any important corporation? Isn't that a conflict of interest? Or to put it another way, they are implementing communism by other means, with the same bad outcomes for the masses. What difference is "Strategische Konzernentwicklung/corporate development/group development" to a Soviet 5-year plan, aggravated by quarterly reviews and HFT? Gennadiy Gosplanovich would approve with a hysteric laugh. I know. Been in several of them. Fortunately got out :) edit: Of course you could call me a stoned hippie leftover from the 70ies, but that really was before my time. I'd counter that with management is on coke, crack or other medications which influence empathy in a bad way. Simple as that. (Now playing "Ka-Ching!" with a pitchfork on the karmic harp)

chongli 6y ago

Was this the essay you were referring to [1]? I think you’re bang on with this comparison. My dad and I have long complained how (for example) grocery stores seem to constantly cancel our favourite products. We know it’s not the manufacturer because the product is still on their website. My dad and I even have a term for the people in the head office who make the decision to phase out our favourite products: spreadsheet guys. It really captures the inanity of a person who just sits around crunching numbers all day and killing off people’s beloved products and showing small percentage quarterly gains... while destroying goodwill and long term customer loyalty in the process. [1] https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret-of-our-success/ https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/04/book-review-the-secret...

lsaferite 6y ago
Number driven vs. people driven is how I usually delineate these things. I find myself strongly in the people driven camp and dealing with purely numbers driven people is highly frustrating.
taneq 6y ago
Hmm. I feel like there's a spiritual connection between your spreadsheet guys and the apocryphal product expert at Campbell's Soups or wherever that tried to focus-test "the perfect soup" that would optimize sales. In the story, they realized that there's no one "perfect soup" and they had to create different varieties. Likewise, there's no such thing as "the best product" at a supermarket. Everyone has their own spread of products and if you cancel low-performing product lines, sometimes it has unexpected effects. (Anecdatum: We used to exclusively do grocery shopping at Woolworths until they stopped selling the cans of chilli beans that we use for nachos. Now we do maybe 1/4 of our grocery shopping at Coles instead, costing Woolworths thousands of dollars a year in lost sales, just because we needed some chilli beans and might as well get the rest of our groceries while we're there.)
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  > Likewise, there's no such thing as "the best product" at a supermarket. I think the core observation behind the job of the spreadsheet guys is that, at scale, the choices within a family of products will approximate a normal distribution - so there will be a "best product" within each family; with a limited shelf space and a lot of different products to sell, this gives them a clear way to optimize for maximum revenue.

walleeee 6y ago

So long as a human remains in the loop somewhere no decision is "purely logical and data-driven", although you make a good point about the risks of chasing efficiency over all else

gmadsen 6y ago

in what world is removing poison to an acceptable level unreasonable? If the process is complicated and convoluted, but people don't die, then that seems reasonable to me. I don't really follow this line of thinking.

nootropicat 6y ago
I think he meant that the process wasn't explained as 'removing poison' but as 'this is how we do things' or 'it's to appease the spirits'. If the poison was something that's slowly acting (years) 'rational' way that would remove 'superstitions' would poison everyone. Of course, knowing the real reason is preferable, but not always possible, especially in a premodern setting. Before the discovery of prions nobody really knew why cannibalism is dangerous, yet it was a taboo in most of the civilized world.

dfxm12 6y ago

It would be more correct to say that today, decisions are being based on increasing short term gain. I think that's the issue more so than transitioning decision making to be based on logic and data and also supports your conclusion about the economy better.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]