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> my general sense is that Waymo and Cruise (widely considered first and second) Thought Tesla was considered first, in part because Tesla's fleet collects an

> my general sense is that Waymo and Cruise (widely considered first and second) Thought Tesla was considered first, in part because Tesla's fleet collects an orders of magnitude of data greater than others.

nick0garvey 6y ago
I interviewed at Cruise, and when speaking with them, Waymo was the main competitor and Tesla didn't come up.
ummonk 6y ago
No, Tesla is nowhere near self-driving capability. Collecting a bunch of unsupervised data on its own is not that useful.
- revscat 6y ago
  I just drove from Dallas to southwestern Colorado and back. Of that, I estimate I drove ~15% of the entire miles driven. The rest was the car driving itself.
  - ummonk 6y ago
    It's not the car driving itself if you need to be constantly attentive and ready to override it.
    - revscat 6y ago
      Sure does feel like it to me.
    - grumple 6y ago
      Does this mean my server doesn't compute things on its own because I have to monitor it?
  - benhurmarcel 6y ago
    I just made a meal for an hour. Of that, I estimate I cooked 15 min. The rest was the oven heating itself.
rainyMammoth 6y ago
Tesla is not even considered in the top half of the contenders. They are the best at hyping it up though.
- ericmay 6y ago
  It blows my mind to see people write things like this. We have two companies, Cruise and Waymo, who have built nothing but toy cars, but they are in the lead while Tesla has years of real-world driving data in cars that are in a manufacturing production operation, receive over the air updates, recognize real world objects, can change lanes automatically, but Waymo is ahead? I’m open to being convinced that I’m not correct here, but it’s really difficult for me to see how Tesla is anything but 1000x ahead of everybody else. It reminds me of people who build great models on Jupyter Notebook, but have no clue how about the data engineering that goes into serving those models (90% of the work).
  - typon 6y ago
    You can't drive a Tesla in "self-driving" mode in non-highway traffic. Solving Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and Automated Lane Centering (ALC) on highway traffic are much easier tasks than what Waymo and Cruise are solving. You can buy a device from comma.ai that gives you 90% of Tesla's functionality for a few hundred dollars.
    - ericmay 6y ago
      I can’t drive a Waymo or Cruise car at all. So they may as well not exist. But Tesla is supposed to be releasing self-driving on city streets soon. And let’s make sure we are clear here, you don’t need to be on a highway to use Autopilot. Do you own a Tesla? We previously had a car with ACC/ALC and I don’t find it to be even close to the same thing, but that’s me. Comma.Ai’s device is great. It’s better than anything anybody else (Waymo/Cruise included) has put out there.
      - piva00 6y ago
        > But Tesla is supposed to be releasing self-driving on city streets soon. Soon as it was in 2016 [1], 2018 [2] in Feb 2019 [3], Mar 2020 [4], or July 2020 [5]? They have been hyping this up for years, why should I still believe those claims that it will soon be here™? Not only that but they have already advertised and sold "full self-driving" for people that can't use it yet, no beta, no alpha, just doesn't exist and is a paid feature. How far is this from fraud? [1] https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/19/watch-a-fully-self-driving-tesla-navigate-intersections-and-city-streets/ https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/19/watch-a-fully-self-driving... [2] https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/hiding-between-two-announcements-tesla-full-self-driving-just-a-couple-of-steps-away/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/hiding-between-two-anno... [3] https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/automatic-driving-city-stop-signs/ https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/automatic-driving-city-stop-s... [4] https://electrek.co/2020/03/04/tesla-self-driving-features-march-city-street-autopilot/ https://electrek.co/2020/03/04/tesla-self-driving-features-m... [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313
d1zzy 6y ago
I see people keep stating this but I'm not so sure about it. Do we know what critically important data Tesla cars collect at scale _and_ are able to send back to mothership and who pays for that bandwidth/traffic? To my mind most of the useful information (video recordings or pictures of moments when the AI driver wasn't sure about things and/or human intervened) seems like it would take a lot of bandwidth to send back from moving cars.
- cycrutchfield 6y ago
  Yes, according to Karpathy. The cars upload data (typically still images) which are then labeled by humans and used as training data to improve the models.
  - ethbr0 6y ago
    The impression I got from GTC a few years ago was that they're probably doing synthetic graphics simulations, based on edge cases identified by real world data. You don't really need 1000x real examples of a scenario, if one still image provides enough information for you to mimic it in simulation. (E.g. toppled barrel, weathered paint color and reflective stripe, in front of exit guard rail)
    - cycrutchfield 6y ago
      I don’t have the link, but watch Karpathy’s recent talk on this topic on YouTube. He goes into detail about how this works. I’m not sure what their approach was years ago but it has changed significantly since.
jowday 6y ago
There's a community of reverse engineers on Twitter that have demonstrated most of Musk's claims about their data pipelines aren't true. Check out greentheonly's Twitter.
SuoDuanDao 6y ago
They're not, at least not officially - they do have the largest data sets, but they're not releasing as many features as their competitors. Whether you think they're sandbagging or behind the curve is largely a question of whether you're a fan of Tesla.

nick0garvey 6y ago

I interviewed at Cruise, and when speaking with them, Waymo was the main competitor and Tesla didn't come up.

ummonk 6y ago

No, Tesla is nowhere near self-driving capability. Collecting a bunch of unsupervised data on its own is not that useful.

revscat 6y ago
I just drove from Dallas to southwestern Colorado and back. Of that, I estimate I drove ~15% of the entire miles driven. The rest was the car driving itself.
- ummonk 6y ago
  It's not the car driving itself if you need to be constantly attentive and ready to override it.
  - revscat 6y ago
    Sure does feel like it to me.
  - grumple 6y ago
    Does this mean my server doesn't compute things on its own because I have to monitor it?
- benhurmarcel 6y ago
  I just made a meal for an hour. Of that, I estimate I cooked 15 min. The rest was the oven heating itself.

rainyMammoth 6y ago

Tesla is not even considered in the top half of the contenders. They are the best at hyping it up though.

ericmay 6y ago
It blows my mind to see people write things like this. We have two companies, Cruise and Waymo, who have built nothing but toy cars, but they are in the lead while Tesla has years of real-world driving data in cars that are in a manufacturing production operation, receive over the air updates, recognize real world objects, can change lanes automatically, but Waymo is ahead? I’m open to being convinced that I’m not correct here, but it’s really difficult for me to see how Tesla is anything but 1000x ahead of everybody else. It reminds me of people who build great models on Jupyter Notebook, but have no clue how about the data engineering that goes into serving those models (90% of the work).
- typon 6y ago
  You can't drive a Tesla in "self-driving" mode in non-highway traffic. Solving Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and Automated Lane Centering (ALC) on highway traffic are much easier tasks than what Waymo and Cruise are solving. You can buy a device from comma.ai that gives you 90% of Tesla's functionality for a few hundred dollars.
  - ericmay 6y ago
    I can’t drive a Waymo or Cruise car at all. So they may as well not exist. But Tesla is supposed to be releasing self-driving on city streets soon. And let’s make sure we are clear here, you don’t need to be on a highway to use Autopilot. Do you own a Tesla? We previously had a car with ACC/ALC and I don’t find it to be even close to the same thing, but that’s me. Comma.Ai’s device is great. It’s better than anything anybody else (Waymo/Cruise included) has put out there.
    - piva00 6y ago
      > But Tesla is supposed to be releasing self-driving on city streets soon. Soon as it was in 2016 [1], 2018 [2] in Feb 2019 [3], Mar 2020 [4], or July 2020 [5]? They have been hyping this up for years, why should I still believe those claims that it will soon be here™? Not only that but they have already advertised and sold "full self-driving" for people that can't use it yet, no beta, no alpha, just doesn't exist and is a paid feature. How far is this from fraud? [1] https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/19/watch-a-fully-self-driving-tesla-navigate-intersections-and-city-streets/ https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/19/watch-a-fully-self-driving... [2] https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/hiding-between-two-announcements-tesla-full-self-driving-just-a-couple-of-steps-away/ https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/03/hiding-between-two-anno... [3] https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/automatic-driving-city-stop-signs/ https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/automatic-driving-city-stop-s... [4] https://electrek.co/2020/03/04/tesla-self-driving-features-march-city-street-autopilot/ https://electrek.co/2020/03/04/tesla-self-driving-features-m... [5] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313 https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53349313

d1zzy 6y ago

I see people keep stating this but I'm not so sure about it. Do we know what critically important data Tesla cars collect at scale _and_ are able to send back to mothership and who pays for that bandwidth/traffic? To my mind most of the useful information (video recordings or pictures of moments when the AI driver wasn't sure about things and/or human intervened) seems like it would take a lot of bandwidth to send back from moving cars.

cycrutchfield 6y ago
Yes, according to Karpathy. The cars upload data (typically still images) which are then labeled by humans and used as training data to improve the models.
- ethbr0 6y ago
  The impression I got from GTC a few years ago was that they're probably doing synthetic graphics simulations, based on edge cases identified by real world data. You don't really need 1000x real examples of a scenario, if one still image provides enough information for you to mimic it in simulation. (E.g. toppled barrel, weathered paint color and reflective stripe, in front of exit guard rail)
  - cycrutchfield 6y ago
    I don’t have the link, but watch Karpathy’s recent talk on this topic on YouTube. He goes into detail about how this works. I’m not sure what their approach was years ago but it has changed significantly since.

jowday 6y ago

There's a community of reverse engineers on Twitter that have demonstrated most of Musk's claims about their data pipelines aren't true. Check out greentheonly's Twitter.

SuoDuanDao 6y ago

They're not, at least not officially - they do have the largest data sets, but they're not releasing as many features as their competitors. Whether you think they're sandbagging or behind the curve is largely a question of whether you're a fan of Tesla.