4 ms·

So is it safe to assume that Apple will book 100% of the first production runs for this new process as well?

by j4nt4b 6y ago

vbezhenar 6y ago
I think it depends on price. At some point chips will cost too much for consumer electronics. You wouldn't want to buy iPhone with $1000 CPU.
- throwaway4good 6y ago
  A mass volume product like an iPhone is the only thing that generates enough money to sponsor this form of development.
  - marcosdumay 6y ago
    Yes, fabs take a large amount of risk when they develop new processes. That doesn't mean that Apple is interested. At least right now. Processes also tend to be improved with time.
- epicureanideal 6y ago
  Sign me up!
- mschuster91 6y ago
  > You wouldn't want to buy iPhone with $1000 CPU. 1.000 US$ no, but... I would not put it past Apple to make a literal system on chip. Like, one chip with everything on one die stack: CPU, GPU, RAM, cell modem, voltage regulators... the only external components would be ports and whatever cannot be reasonably expressed on a silicon die (e.g. coils for voltage regulators).
- AgloeDreams 6y ago
  Chips don't really work like that. 99% of the cost is in R&D and factory development then the cost per chip is pretty low, you just have to average in the R&D cost right? Apple sells ~ 200M units every year and prior developments get rolled into low cost products. Each new process probably leads Apple to make at least 500M devices. At scale you can spend 10s of billions on R&D and be spending less than $15-25 per chip.
- zamalek 6y ago
  Price depends on yields, and 90% is pretty damned good.
ksec 6y ago
It depends on a lot of factors, but mainly cost and yield. Example; Apple didn't use any 7nm EUV variant in A12/A13. While Huawei used it for their SoC. Having said that MBCFET, or more commonly known as GAA was originally scheduled for 3nm in 2022, so giving another 2 year to bake should help. So yes, if everything were executed to absolute perfection, then we should see a 2nm Apple Silicon in 2024. Note: While Wccftech has gotten a lot better in the recent 12 months or so, I still wouldn't put them into reliable and trusted source. It is good for rumours and entertainment, but that is about it. ( Personally I would rather not have it appear on HN )

So is it safe to assume that Apple will book 100% of the first production runs for this new process as well?

by j4nt4b 6y ago

So is it safe to assume that Apple will book 100% of the first production runs for this new process as well?

I think it depends on price. At some point chips will cost too much for consumer electronics. You wouldn't want to buy iPhone with $1000 CPU.

throwaway4good 6y ago
A mass volume product like an iPhone is the only thing that generates enough money to sponsor this form of development.
- marcosdumay 6y ago
  Yes, fabs take a large amount of risk when they develop new processes. That doesn't mean that Apple is interested. At least right now. Processes also tend to be improved with time.
epicureanideal 6y ago
Sign me up!
mschuster91 6y ago
> You wouldn't want to buy iPhone with $1000 CPU. 1.000 US$ no, but... I would not put it past Apple to make a literal system on chip. Like, one chip with everything on one die stack: CPU, GPU, RAM, cell modem, voltage regulators... the only external components would be ports and whatever cannot be reasonably expressed on a silicon die (e.g. coils for voltage regulators).
AgloeDreams 6y ago
Chips don't really work like that. 99% of the cost is in R&D and factory development then the cost per chip is pretty low, you just have to average in the R&D cost right? Apple sells ~ 200M units every year and prior developments get rolled into low cost products. Each new process probably leads Apple to make at least 500M devices. At scale you can spend 10s of billions on R&D and be spending less than $15-25 per chip.
zamalek 6y ago
Price depends on yields, and 90% is pretty damned good.

ksec 6y ago

It depends on a lot of factors, but mainly cost and yield. Example; Apple didn't use any 7nm EUV variant in A12/A13. While Huawei used it for their SoC. Having said that MBCFET, or more commonly known as GAA was originally scheduled for 3nm in 2022, so giving another 2 year to bake should help. So yes, if everything were executed to absolute perfection, then we should see a 2nm Apple Silicon in 2024. Note: While Wccftech has gotten a lot better in the recent 12 months or so, I still wouldn't put them into reliable and trusted source. It is good for rumours and entertainment, but that is about it. ( Personally I would rather not have it appear on HN )