5 ms·

In crime there seems to be the oposite of survivor bias. We see the successful legal businesses without seeing those that failed. We see the failed drug deale

In crime there seems to be the oposite of survivor bias. We see the successful legal businesses without seeing those that failed. We see the failed drug dealers without seeing those that succeeded.

tristor 6y ago
I imagine that this is intentional on the part of the state and the media to deter criminality. If the public message is “crime doesn’t pay” that might deter opportunists.
- cortesoft 6y ago
  It is more an intrinsic to being a successful criminal.... if the public knows you are a criminal, so do the police and criminal justice system, since they are part of the public. How would the government do what you are accusing them of? How would they hide successful drug dealers from the public?
  - DyslexicAtheist 6y ago
    other than a plot to cover things up (which is less likely because Occams razor), they simply don't know what they don't know.
dx034 6y ago
I'm not sure if selling and shipping drugs to end customers was ever a good job to get into. Wholesale drug shipments maybe, but selling to end customers always had way too much risk for the money you could make there. We shouldn't assume that people go into the business because it's rational to do so. They see the short term gains, not the long term risks. I might be wrong but I think any criminal who really cared about long term risk adjusted gains stayed away from selling a few pills here and there.
- swiley 6y ago
  This appears to be how most legal chemical manufacturers operate as well. Customers are just a huge hassle in general.
raxxorrax 6y ago
It is actually quite amazing how well drug logistics work. Even in countries with prohibition, you often have no problem getting some weed, I suspect other drugs being similarly well distributed. If have seen weed and other stuff packaged in high tech cases so even dogs couldn't sniff it out. Especially with the amount of drug use, the logistical challenge isn't trivial.

In crime there seems to be the oposite of survivor bias. We see the successful legal businesses without seeing those that failed. We see the failed drug dealers without seeing those that succeeded.

tristor 6y ago

I imagine that this is intentional on the part of the state and the media to deter criminality. If the public message is “crime doesn’t pay” that might deter opportunists.

cortesoft 6y ago
It is more an intrinsic to being a successful criminal.... if the public knows you are a criminal, so do the police and criminal justice system, since they are part of the public. How would the government do what you are accusing them of? How would they hide successful drug dealers from the public?
- DyslexicAtheist 6y ago
  other than a plot to cover things up (which is less likely because Occams razor), they simply don't know what they don't know.

dx034 6y ago

I'm not sure if selling and shipping drugs to end customers was ever a good job to get into. Wholesale drug shipments maybe, but selling to end customers always had way too much risk for the money you could make there. We shouldn't assume that people go into the business because it's rational to do so. They see the short term gains, not the long term risks. I might be wrong but I think any criminal who really cared about long term risk adjusted gains stayed away from selling a few pills here and there.

swiley 6y ago
This appears to be how most legal chemical manufacturers operate as well. Customers are just a huge hassle in general.

raxxorrax 6y ago

It is actually quite amazing how well drug logistics work. Even in countries with prohibition, you often have no problem getting some weed, I suspect other drugs being similarly well distributed. If have seen weed and other stuff packaged in high tech cases so even dogs couldn't sniff it out. Especially with the amount of drug use, the logistical challenge isn't trivial.