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US EPA[0] / CA ARB[1] data on emissions shares by sector: * 28%/41% - transportation * 27%/15% - electricity * 22%/24% - industry * 12%/12% - commercial & r
by clairity 6y ago
US EPA[0] / CA ARB[1] data on emissions shares by sector:
* 28%/41% - transportation
* 27%/15% - electricity
* 22%/24% - industry
* 12%/12% - commercial & residential
* 10%/ 8% - agriculture
58% of US transportation (~16% of the US total) is passenger cars and light-duty trucks, the focus of this announcement. CA accounts for about 6-7% of US CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalents), so this action targets roughly 1% of our national emissions, not nothing but certainly more symbolic than impactful (even considering spillover effects). electricity and industry must be tackled as well, coordinated among a majority of states.
the US, ~4% of the world's population, produces about 15% of the world's emissions (2nd to china, EU together is 3rd). this is why it's even more critical that the US, china and the EU especially come together on climate change (e.g., the paris accords) rather than giving the middle finger like we americans did recently.
[0]: https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas...
[1]: https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/ghg-inventory-data https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/ghg-inventory-data
- freewilly1040 6y agoYou can't assume that CA's action will exist in a vacuum. In the optimistic case this will help drive the rest of the country / world towards electric vehicles.
- paxys 6y agoThis isn't just optimistic thinking. A lot of the current American consumer laws, emissions standards etc. are de facto set by California rather than the Federal government.
- syshum 6y agoThat is more of a cost matrix, if CA demands a label on a product it is too costly to just make a CA only package so manufacturers will inform the entire nation that to the State of CA everything under the sun causes cancer.... However if you start outlawing entire segments of a product that does not mean that Ford is going to stop making Gas powered F150 that 49 other states Love, they will just stop selling them in CA and many CA Truck owners will drive to NV to buy one. I have a feeling the border will have a Nice Big Truck Dealership in short order We already see that in some markets where for example my Tractor can not be sold in CA, but I bought it just fine in my state
- rfrey 6y agoYour point is sound, but don’t ignore the supply side. Manufacturers will produce more electric cars to satisfy the California market, driving down prices which will increase adoption elsewhere.
- coredog64 6y agoWe’ve already seen this story. They make “compliance cars” that are sold (typically with a subsidy) and are impossible to get outside the target market. Now maybe California won’t actually allow IC vehicles in any shape or form and that will finally force hands. But I suspect that whatever is actually done will be watered down and have enough loopholes that it won’t.
- Dylan16807 6y agoWhen you only force a small number you get compliance cars. If they need to supply 40 million people you'll see real competition.
- kube-system 6y agoSure, we see that with stuff like tractors, lawn mowers, and occasionally motorcycles -- but 16 other states hopped on board with CA when it comes to passenger cars. "49 state cars" were commercially viable for a while, but I'm pretty sure that "34 state cars" don't exist...
- syshum 6y ago16 other states are NOT on board with banning ICE vehicles, they have adopted CA's MPG and other emissions standards under the carve out that allows CA to set higher standards than the federal government. The only state that gets that authority, which itself should be repelled, either all states have the power or no state should, CA should not get a special carve out in the law
- kube-system 6y ago
- clairity 6y agoagain, the spillover effects will be minimal because, unlike the CAFE standards for instance, this affects a relatively new subclass of vehicles, and the costs are not minimal for broad conformance. it will help move the US overall toward electric vehicles a little bit, but it won't lead to wholesale changes by itself.
- tchaffee 6y agoAt least part of China's emissions is thanks to US consumers. Just because we moved the factories there doesn't mean that goes away.
- refurb 6y agoI missed it at first, but this is only new cars. Cars, especially in CA, can last for decades. I would guess CA would still have a very large number of ICE vehicles in 2060 with this legislation.
- cure 6y agoYes. Some form of the Obama-era "cash for clunkers" will be required to get those off the road.
- sokoloff 6y agoI hope a Rush fan in the legislature calls it the “Motor Law”
- ogre_codes 6y agoThe average age of a vehicle in California is ~12.5 years. So if they stopped selling ICE cars, within 5 years there would be 25% fewer cars on the road... At that point, the profitability of owning a gas station would go way down and people would start finding better uses for the land. Within 10 years, gas stations would be driven out of bigger cities. Now people get "range anxiety" thinking about buying EVs, but people can charge an EV cars at home. When gas stations get harder to find, the biggest advantage of owning an ICE car vanishes. If (and it's a big if), you can't sell new ICE cars, they will be uncommon 10 years later. After 25 years (your 2060 number) it will be difficult to do a road trip without careful planning around for gas stops.
- refurb 6y agoMedian age of cars in the US is ~12 years, but has trended up since 1970 when it was ~6 years, which I assume is due to more reliable and durable vehicles.[1] 25% of cars are 16+ years old.[2] So by 2051, you'd expect 25% of cars to still be on the road. For light trucks, the average age was 19 years old.[2] [1]https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks-vehicles-by-household-income-vehicle-type/ https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/21/average-age-of-cars-trucks... [2]https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-at-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25percent-of-cars-in-us-are-...
- papito 6y agoThink of the California Consumer Privacy Act. It affected the whole country.
- rypskar 6y agoDid not read all the comments, but it seems like many think California is first. This is not a symbolic act or something radical. This is joining in with the other countries and territories who have similar plans [0]. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles#Jurisdictions_with_planned_fossil-fuel_vehicle_bans https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...
- odessacubbage 6y agoi wonder how much transportation & commercial emissions could be reduced solely by providing the right incentives for remote work & keeping non essential employees from driving to and from the city center everyday. covid already served as a model for this hopefully we can learn the right lessons. as a personal bias i'd like to see schools move in a similar direction as well towards more decentralized satellites with fewer students traveling less far from home. another elephant in the room (really it's a whole room full of elephants) is that cali's grid is already clearly beleaguered and not keeping up with demand so what does that mean when you have something like 20 million EVs that need to plug in every night?