6 ms·

Something that's important to note: Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos, and only secondarily interested (at most) in getting a particular

Something that's important to note: Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos, and only secondarily interested (at most) in getting a particular candidate elected. The best case scenario for those who want to interfere with the election is for the US government to be widely perceived as delegitimized and ineffectual, which opens up space for them to pursue their own interests, which are often not the interests of the United States or regional neighbors. That doesn't mean domestic actors won't be doing things that delegimitimize the election on their own terms, but it does mean it will be very hard to tell genuine criticism from foreign-sponsored agitprop. The best thing to do is to listen to those who are ostensibly on your own side with a high dose of skepticism.

emilsedgh 6y ago
At least in case of Iran, that's not true. Iran is being suffocated by the current administration. They strategy for the past 4 years has been just to tolerate it until the administration changes. They have almost no interest in chaos in US. Just a government that respects the Iran deal (JCPOA) so they can trade with the world again.
mywittyname 6y ago
> Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos, Mission fucking accomplished. This is the first time in my life that I've felt a civil war was a real possibility. The "call to arms" on Facebook have been pretty damn successful where I live. I personally know people who've picked up their rifles at a moments notice and drove out to Whereeverthefuck and hung around waiting for The Protestors to arrive. It's only a matter of time before one these escalates, they have itchy trigger fingers and cops are telling these people, "if they have a knife in their hands, there's no much I can do." Things remained tolerable when the economy was good. But now with so many people out of work...
- taurath 6y ago
  You're downvoted because its still in the "unthinkable" area of the overton window, but I agree that there are a lot of very very extreme armed people sitting around fantasizing about conflict with "the libs".
rbanffy 6y ago
> and only secondarily interested (at most) in getting a particular candidate elected It's quite fortunate for them that there is a candidate with an extensive record of creating chaos when elected.
- Fauntleroy 6y ago
  It's such a strange coincidence
  - rbanffy 6y ago
    A very convenient one.
    - CincinnatiMan 6y ago
      Comment chains like this are why I spend less and less time on Reddit. HN comments are usually more substantial and insightful.
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        I think you kinda have to expect this kind of thing on any online comment forum. Between September and December of an election year, any discussion which could turn to blind partisanship will, and you've gotta either let it scroll by or deliberately dodge any discussions plausibly related to partisan politics.
      - DenisM 6y ago
        Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Use downvote button instead.
        CincinnatiMan 6y ago
        Sorry about that. I don’t have enough karma to downvote.
DaiPlusPlus 6y ago
> Foreign actors *Russia It's just Russia.
- rbanffy 6y ago
  Others can try to disrupt the election for their own goals.
- scarmig 6y ago
  It's not just Russia. But, beyond that, their actual identities are irrelevant, because all of the major strategic competitors of the USA have the same core interests, and will do similar things to cover their tracks. And just because something will appear to originate from some country does not indicate by itself that that country is responsible.
  - jacques_chester 6y ago
    > all of the major strategic competitors of the USA have the same core interests They don't, actually. Russia wants to sow chaos in the USA and Europe, because these powers constrain its territorial ambitions. They want strife in China too, but have less ability to sow it there. They want Iran excluded from the international oil trade to improve prices, since they rely heavily on oil to maintain their otherwise decrepit gangster economy. They also border on Iran; normalisation between Iran and the west would open the door to further geographical encirclement. Saudi Arabia wants Trump to win because he won't interfere their war in Yemen and ignores their support for Wahabbist extremism. They also benefit from Iran's being weakened in the oil markets generally and the middle-east specifically. Iran just wants not to starve and/or collapse into a viscious civil war turbo-charged by Russia and Saudi Arabia. Europe doesn't want Iran to collapse, because it would trigger a gigantic refugee crisis. It would also disrupt the global oil and gas markets, making Russia's leverage via gas pipelines more potent. Especially for NATO states in the east. China wants stability in trade and latitude to pursue its slow-rolling program of dominating Asia. The current administration has been bad for trade, but has neglected to support diplomatic order. China has pushed hard into the South China Sea (throwing an unexpected, massive burden onto stalwart allies, Australia) and into buying votes in the UN's General Assembly. A Biden administration would slow that down. I suspect that China slightly prefers Trump and that the idea that it prefers Biden is a talking point invented for Trump's benefit. So no. The USA's rivals and allies want different outcomes.
vmception 6y ago
> Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos. False! Behind the perceivable problems and shortlist of problem countries ("oh Russia was involved? :| >:|") is the reality that all or many countries and private actors are also doing this and have for a long time. It is the system itself with the vulnerabilities. Many allies would be doing the same thing to maintain their relationships or further improve it. The abstraction is that people are primarily interested in their interests. Its not about the things you care about, it isn't about your ideology, it isn't about how social media will be distorted to routinely and precisely show you your worst fears coming true by your own countrymen. It is about outsized influence, and a historical enemy sowing discord to create favorable geopolitical outcomes for themselves is just one manifestation of that. Sure, other countries and individuals are using this as an instruction manual too, and some people are trying to get a high score of real world effects from easily manipulable people. But this is just one of many things happening.
taurath 6y ago
Just as it takes a generations worth of time to delegitimize elections and trust, it will take at least another to return to legitimacy. This is the Cold Wars long term effects coming into play - when the US would lie to their citizens and install dictators across the world. The more realpolitik politicians get to make policy the more violent the world gets.
- xnx 6y ago
  I agree that trust takes a long time to build, but trust can be lost very quickly. Imagine a classic "trust fall" exercise. How many times do I have to drop you to stop trusting me?
johnchristopher 6y ago
> Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos, and only secondarily interested (at most) in getting a particular candidate elected. That was true until Trump though. https://static.macmillan.com/static/fib/hiding-in-plain-sight/index.html https://static.macmillan.com/static/fib/hiding-in-plain-sigh... That foreign actor sowed a seed, cultivated it and it blossomed according to possible years-long plan and that one for once succeeded in incredible ways. Most likely others failed, most likely luck played a role. But here we are. Sponsoring some candidates rather than others is picking up a particular candidate.

emilsedgh 6y ago

At least in case of Iran, that's not true. Iran is being suffocated by the current administration. They strategy for the past 4 years has been just to tolerate it until the administration changes. They have almost no interest in chaos in US. Just a government that respects the Iran deal (JCPOA) so they can trade with the world again.

mywittyname 6y ago

> Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos, Mission fucking accomplished. This is the first time in my life that I've felt a civil war was a real possibility. The "call to arms" on Facebook have been pretty damn successful where I live. I personally know people who've picked up their rifles at a moments notice and drove out to Whereeverthefuck and hung around waiting for The Protestors to arrive. It's only a matter of time before one these escalates, they have itchy trigger fingers and cops are telling these people, "if they have a knife in their hands, there's no much I can do." Things remained tolerable when the economy was good. But now with so many people out of work...

taurath 6y ago
You're downvoted because its still in the "unthinkable" area of the overton window, but I agree that there are a lot of very very extreme armed people sitting around fantasizing about conflict with "the libs".

rbanffy 6y ago

> and only secondarily interested (at most) in getting a particular candidate elected It's quite fortunate for them that there is a candidate with an extensive record of creating chaos when elected.

Fauntleroy 6y ago
It's such a strange coincidence
- rbanffy 6y ago
  A very convenient one.
  - CincinnatiMan 6y ago
    Comment chains like this are why I spend less and less time on Reddit. HN comments are usually more substantial and insightful.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      I think you kinda have to expect this kind of thing on any online comment forum. Between September and December of an election year, any discussion which could turn to blind partisanship will, and you've gotta either let it scroll by or deliberately dodge any discussions plausibly related to partisan politics.
    - DenisM 6y ago
      Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html Use downvote button instead.
      - CincinnatiMan 6y ago
        Sorry about that. I don’t have enough karma to downvote.

DaiPlusPlus 6y ago

> Foreign actors *Russia It's just Russia.

rbanffy 6y ago
Others can try to disrupt the election for their own goals.
scarmig 6y ago
It's not just Russia. But, beyond that, their actual identities are irrelevant, because all of the major strategic competitors of the USA have the same core interests, and will do similar things to cover their tracks. And just because something will appear to originate from some country does not indicate by itself that that country is responsible.
- jacques_chester 6y ago
  > all of the major strategic competitors of the USA have the same core interests They don't, actually. Russia wants to sow chaos in the USA and Europe, because these powers constrain its territorial ambitions. They want strife in China too, but have less ability to sow it there. They want Iran excluded from the international oil trade to improve prices, since they rely heavily on oil to maintain their otherwise decrepit gangster economy. They also border on Iran; normalisation between Iran and the west would open the door to further geographical encirclement. Saudi Arabia wants Trump to win because he won't interfere their war in Yemen and ignores their support for Wahabbist extremism. They also benefit from Iran's being weakened in the oil markets generally and the middle-east specifically. Iran just wants not to starve and/or collapse into a viscious civil war turbo-charged by Russia and Saudi Arabia. Europe doesn't want Iran to collapse, because it would trigger a gigantic refugee crisis. It would also disrupt the global oil and gas markets, making Russia's leverage via gas pipelines more potent. Especially for NATO states in the east. China wants stability in trade and latitude to pursue its slow-rolling program of dominating Asia. The current administration has been bad for trade, but has neglected to support diplomatic order. China has pushed hard into the South China Sea (throwing an unexpected, massive burden onto stalwart allies, Australia) and into buying votes in the UN's General Assembly. A Biden administration would slow that down. I suspect that China slightly prefers Trump and that the idea that it prefers Biden is a talking point invented for Trump's benefit. So no. The USA's rivals and allies want different outcomes.

vmception 6y ago

> Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos. False! Behind the perceivable problems and shortlist of problem countries ("oh Russia was involved? :| >:|") is the reality that all or many countries and private actors are also doing this and have for a long time. It is the system itself with the vulnerabilities. Many allies would be doing the same thing to maintain their relationships or further improve it. The abstraction is that people are primarily interested in their interests. Its not about the things you care about, it isn't about your ideology, it isn't about how social media will be distorted to routinely and precisely show you your worst fears coming true by your own countrymen. It is about outsized influence, and a historical enemy sowing discord to create favorable geopolitical outcomes for themselves is just one manifestation of that. Sure, other countries and individuals are using this as an instruction manual too, and some people are trying to get a high score of real world effects from easily manipulable people. But this is just one of many things happening.

taurath 6y ago

Just as it takes a generations worth of time to delegitimize elections and trust, it will take at least another to return to legitimacy. This is the Cold Wars long term effects coming into play - when the US would lie to their citizens and install dictators across the world. The more realpolitik politicians get to make policy the more violent the world gets.

xnx 6y ago
I agree that trust takes a long time to build, but trust can be lost very quickly. Imagine a classic "trust fall" exercise. How many times do I have to drop you to stop trusting me?

johnchristopher 6y ago

> Foreign actors are primarily interested in sowing chaos, and only secondarily interested (at most) in getting a particular candidate elected. That was true until Trump though. https://static.macmillan.com/static/fib/hiding-in-plain-sight/index.html https://static.macmillan.com/static/fib/hiding-in-plain-sigh... That foreign actor sowed a seed, cultivated it and it blossomed according to possible years-long plan and that one for once succeeded in incredible ways. Most likely others failed, most likely luck played a role. But here we are. Sponsoring some candidates rather than others is picking up a particular candidate.