4 ms·

NHS estimates put most people who died with covid as being likely to die within 6mo-1yr anyway, so your “5-20 more years” thought experiment is off by an order

NHS estimates put most people who died with covid as being likely to die within 6mo-1yr anyway, so your “5-20 more years” thought experiment is off by an order of magnitude.

dwaltrip 6y ago
Source?
DanBC 6y ago
I've been unable to find any NHS data that supports your point. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1 > Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count. > Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). 14 years for men and 12 years for women. Have a look at the ICNARC data. https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports Of the 10834 patients admitted to ICUs in England and Wales so far the mean age was 58.8. 9580 of these patients were able to live without assistance in daily activities. 1094 had some assistance. Just 40 had total assistance. These are the people most at risk of death (they're ICU patients), but they're not the frail group of 90 year olds that you're making them out to be.
- nradov 6y ago
  That article overestimates YLL by failing to specifically account for obesity as a comorbidity (although there is some correlation with other comorbidities included in their model). We know that obesity both reduces lifespan on its own, and is a serious risk factor for COVID-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3688902/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3688902/

NHS estimates put most people who died with covid as being likely to die within 6mo-1yr anyway, so your “5-20 more years” thought experiment is off by an order of magnitude.

dwaltrip 6y ago

Source?

DanBC 6y ago

I've been unable to find any NHS data that supports your point. https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1 https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75/v1 > Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count. > Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). 14 years for men and 12 years for women. Have a look at the ICNARC data. https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports Of the 10834 patients admitted to ICUs in England and Wales so far the mean age was 58.8. 9580 of these patients were able to live without assistance in daily activities. 1094 had some assistance. Just 40 had total assistance. These are the people most at risk of death (they're ICU patients), but they're not the frail group of 90 year olds that you're making them out to be.

nradov 6y ago
That article overestimates YLL by failing to specifically account for obesity as a comorbidity (although there is some correlation with other comorbidities included in their model). We know that obesity both reduces lifespan on its own, and is a serious risk factor for COVID-19. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3688902/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3688902/