4 ms·

Case shiller 100 year chart

47 points by mikek 16y ago

dereg 16y ago
For more information about the index: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us---- http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home...
abcd_f 16y ago
Does not apply to Vancouver, Canada. This beauty on 6000 sqft lot in a very simple neighborhood sold for 2.3 million dollars. With multiple offers. http://i52.tinypic.com/2i7pkxl.jpg http://i52.tinypic.com/2i7pkxl.jpg Close proximity to China, lots of rich people from Hong Kong and the mainland (and their children) and their unyielding supply of US money that just need to be parked somewhere -- all this keeps the bubble alive and kicking with no end in sight. Trying to understand why they don't go after prime real-estate in Calgary or Phoenix or Miami is a favourite past time on local real-estate forums. Nobody knows, but the bus-fuls of Chinese "investors" keep touring all open houses every weekend and buying stuff left and right. Just FYI if Winter Olympics planted any stupid ideas in your head :)
- poutine 16y ago
  All of Canada is in a bubble, not just Vancouver. Thus it's not the Chinese. Things will burst here too, for Canada is not different and is not immune to the simple mathematics of economics.
  - abcd_f 16y ago
    Vancouver is in a bubble of its own. Where else 2M would buy you a 70 year old teardown on 1/6 acre lot in EastVan-like neighborhood? Just talk to realtors, and they will furnish a metric ton of evidence that it's the Chinese who are driving the speculation here. Houses sitting on a market for few months and then suddenly getting sold over asking in a bid war between 3 Chinese gentlemen... yeah, it's not Chinese :)
  - cperciva 16y ago
    The Y/Y inflation-adjusted increase in housing prices in Canada excluding Greater Vancouver is 2.5%. The Y/Y inflation-adjusted increase in housing prices in Greater Vancouver is 12%. If inflation plus 2.5% is a bubble, it's a very very minor one. Inflation plus 12%, on the other hand, is definitely in bubble territory.
- rhizome 16y ago
  I'm guessing there's a view at the back of the lot.
- steveplace 16y ago
  If you think that house is a teeny bit overvalued, you may enjoy this game: http://crackshackormansion.com/ http://crackshackormansion.com/
orijing 16y ago
The chart is somewhat deceptive because the vertical axis does not begin with zero. With that said, that recent spike to 200 is pretty astounding.
- 18pfsmt 16y ago
  Well, C-S Index was begun in 1890 where it was given a value of 100. Notes from the chart: "The 1890 benchmark is 100 on the chart. If a standard house sold for $100,000 (inflation-adjusted to today's dollars), an equivalent standard house would have sold for $66,000 in 1920 (66 on the index scale) and $199,000 in 2006 (199 on the index scale, or 99% higher than in 1890)."
- sesqu 16y ago
  The log-scale suggested in the comments would also be interesting. I graphed all three with S&P's data: http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/3978/caseshiller.png http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/3978/caseshiller.png It's only from Jan 1987, and they've set Jan 2000 as 100. I accidentally flipped colors in one - the smaller values are from composite 20, the larger ones from composite 10. Personally, I think the cut off one is worst. edit: just for the heck of it, I made a diffed one to show growth. I unfortunately didn't add a line at 0, but here it is anyway: http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/3557/caseshillerdiff.png http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/3557/caseshillerdiff.png
ilazarte 16y ago
Sobering but not unexpected. Remember real estate is still a local market. CS data is also available on an individual city level.
waterlesscloud 16y ago
This is a much more fun visualization of the same data - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U
math 16y ago
Comparison with Australia: http://cdn.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/020911_2113_AMotleyCrew4.png http://cdn.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/0... chart is from article: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/02/10/a-motley-crew-interview-on-australian-house-prices/ http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/02/10/a-motley-crew-...
gopi 16y ago
The situation is much worse in India especially in the western and southern states. I know friends whoose land prices appreciated 100 times in 5 years...The general buyer expectation now is they expect the price to atleast double in 3-4 years. By that rate a apartment in chennai would cost more than a manhattan apartment in 10 years!

47 points by mikek 16y ago

dereg 16y ago

For more information about the index: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us---- http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home...

abcd_f 16y ago

Does not apply to Vancouver, Canada. This beauty on 6000 sqft lot in a very simple neighborhood sold for 2.3 million dollars. With multiple offers. http://i52.tinypic.com/2i7pkxl.jpg http://i52.tinypic.com/2i7pkxl.jpg Close proximity to China, lots of rich people from Hong Kong and the mainland (and their children) and their unyielding supply of US money that just need to be parked somewhere -- all this keeps the bubble alive and kicking with no end in sight. Trying to understand why they don't go after prime real-estate in Calgary or Phoenix or Miami is a favourite past time on local real-estate forums. Nobody knows, but the bus-fuls of Chinese "investors" keep touring all open houses every weekend and buying stuff left and right. Just FYI if Winter Olympics planted any stupid ideas in your head :)

poutine 16y ago
All of Canada is in a bubble, not just Vancouver. Thus it's not the Chinese. Things will burst here too, for Canada is not different and is not immune to the simple mathematics of economics.
- abcd_f 16y ago
  Vancouver is in a bubble of its own. Where else 2M would buy you a 70 year old teardown on 1/6 acre lot in EastVan-like neighborhood? Just talk to realtors, and they will furnish a metric ton of evidence that it's the Chinese who are driving the speculation here. Houses sitting on a market for few months and then suddenly getting sold over asking in a bid war between 3 Chinese gentlemen... yeah, it's not Chinese :)
- cperciva 16y ago
  The Y/Y inflation-adjusted increase in housing prices in Canada excluding Greater Vancouver is 2.5%. The Y/Y inflation-adjusted increase in housing prices in Greater Vancouver is 12%. If inflation plus 2.5% is a bubble, it's a very very minor one. Inflation plus 12%, on the other hand, is definitely in bubble territory.
rhizome 16y ago
I'm guessing there's a view at the back of the lot.
steveplace 16y ago
If you think that house is a teeny bit overvalued, you may enjoy this game: http://crackshackormansion.com/ http://crackshackormansion.com/

orijing 16y ago

The chart is somewhat deceptive because the vertical axis does not begin with zero. With that said, that recent spike to 200 is pretty astounding.

18pfsmt 16y ago
Well, C-S Index was begun in 1890 where it was given a value of 100. Notes from the chart: "The 1890 benchmark is 100 on the chart. If a standard house sold for $100,000 (inflation-adjusted to today's dollars), an equivalent standard house would have sold for $66,000 in 1920 (66 on the index scale) and $199,000 in 2006 (199 on the index scale, or 99% higher than in 1890)."
sesqu 16y ago
The log-scale suggested in the comments would also be interesting. I graphed all three with S&P's data: http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/3978/caseshiller.png http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/3978/caseshiller.png It's only from Jan 1987, and they've set Jan 2000 as 100. I accidentally flipped colors in one - the smaller values are from composite 20, the larger ones from composite 10. Personally, I think the cut off one is worst. edit: just for the heck of it, I made a diffed one to show growth. I unfortunately didn't add a line at 0, but here it is anyway: http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/3557/caseshillerdiff.png http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/3557/caseshillerdiff.png

ilazarte 16y ago

Sobering but not unexpected. Remember real estate is still a local market. CS data is also available on an individual city level.

waterlesscloud 16y ago

This is a much more fun visualization of the same data - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

math 16y ago

Comparison with Australia: http://cdn.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/020911_2113_AMotleyCrew4.png http://cdn.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2011/0... chart is from article: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/02/10/a-motley-crew-interview-on-australian-house-prices/ http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/02/10/a-motley-crew-...

gopi 16y ago

The situation is much worse in India especially in the western and southern states. I know friends whoose land prices appreciated 100 times in 5 years...The general buyer expectation now is they expect the price to atleast double in 3-4 years. By that rate a apartment in chennai would cost more than a manhattan apartment in 10 years!