8 ms·

If you look at yesterdays' stats, Lyon (#1) and Paris (#2) are respectively at 97% and 90% of usual mobility. Yet the number of confirmed cases in France, over

If you look at yesterdays' stats, Lyon (#1) and Paris (#2) are respectively at 97% and 90% of usual mobility. Yet the number of confirmed cases in France, over the last 15 days, went from 293 024 to 404 888. This index won't tell you wether it's safe to move around or not, just what people are doing and what authorities are allowing.

rhizome31 6y ago
I may be wrong but it seems that the number of confirmed cases isn't a great indicator either because we've been testing a lot more so it's expected that we're getting more positives. What matters is the number of people who die or get seriously ill, isn't it?
- AlanSE 6y ago
  It's the same virus no matter where you are in the world. Weekly new cases (per capita) is the best metric for how likely you are to get it when you step outside.
  - dr_dshiv 6y ago
    Mm, how to account for the percent of tests given that are positive? That seems like important information. BTW, this is a very well done indicator dashboard for the Netherlands. https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk
  - hdjdbtbgwjsn 6y ago
    Weekly new hospital admissions is better. Case numbers are massively skewed by testing capacity.
    - bluGill 6y ago
      Even that isn't good - it doesn't account for people who don't go in and drop dead. It is suspected this is happening in India.
  - rossdavidh 6y ago
    Well, as of early May there were 198 variants identified: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52557955 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52557955 We don't know that there's any difference, currently, between what variants are dominant in different parts of the world. But, we sure don't know they're the same, either.
  - BlueScreenDeath 6y ago
    A virus is not computer code. They mutate.
  - Wintamute 6y ago
    Completely false. Weekly new cases per capita is merely a function of number of tests performed by authorities, and furthermore the false positive rate of those tests too. Percent positivity of those tests is a somewhat more accurate indication, but those figures rarely see headlines because they are less sensationalist. For example, UK test positivity rates are less than 1/10th what they were at the peak.
- war1025 6y ago
  > I may be wrong but it seems that the number of confirmed cases isn't a great indicator either Personal anecdote, but I generally avoid doctors at pretty well all costs. I have one, and I go for my yearly physical when they call me to schedule it. Other than that, I've found the doctor to be a great way to waste a lot of money and get an ambiguous result. Usually, "Take pain killers for a week and see if it gets better" Since I am relatively well off, I have to imagine there is an enormous portion of the population who feels similarly to me about going to the doctor, and who also don't actually have the money to pay those bills. It seems likely to me that coronavirus cases are probably just going undetected among the less well off in (American) society, especially for the portion where the illness is mild (which is literally every case I have heard about in my area for people under 40).
  - ballenf 6y ago
    Don't forget the average American can't afford a forced 2-week unpaid vacation, based on stats about debt levels and cash reserves.
    - war1025 6y ago
      Yea. The experience of the pandemic is pretty clearly split along class lines.
- bluGill 6y ago
  What about long term effects. If "mild" covid cases come back in 2 years as death (this does happen in the case of some diseases), or you are never seriously ill but have other problems. There has been speculation that Chronic Fatigue is caused by a seemly mild cold. We don't know what the long term effects might be. There are some reports that they are pretty bad, but nothing is confirmed.
  - andai 6y ago
    I'd like to read more for that, if you can remember the source? I have chronic fatigue and am constantly stuffy, have I just had a cold for 20 years?
    - burning_hamster 6y ago
      Here is a recent review with open access: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6787585/pdf/diagnostics-09-00091.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6787585/pdf/dia... It's been a while since I left virology so I can't comment on the veracity of the article. It does look pretty comprehensive though, and a bunch of the articles I remember to have read a decade ago are referenced.
  - dustinmoris 6y ago
    > this does happen in the case of some diseases Which disease is being cured by your body entirely and then comes back 2 years later with long term effects? > We don't know what the long term effects might be Isn't this true for everything though? How do you know if there are any long term effects for a new developed vaccine? Does it mean out of fear that theoretically anything in life can suddenly unexpectedly cause long term effects that you are not going to do anything which hasn't been done by other humans for at least 10-20 years? People don't know about long term effects of cellular data, yet we are using it every day. Given that nobody has any long term effects from COVID which are different from other post viral issues seen with the flu and normal colds I think it's more pragmatic to assume that COVID will also behave very similar to other coronaviruses like the common cold.
    - 6y ago
matthewdgreen 6y ago
I feel dumb here, but isn't "high mobility" being correlated with "high cases" kind of what you'd expect in a regime where the number of cases had previously been low, and then began to spread again?

rhizome31 6y ago

I may be wrong but it seems that the number of confirmed cases isn't a great indicator either because we've been testing a lot more so it's expected that we're getting more positives. What matters is the number of people who die or get seriously ill, isn't it?

AlanSE 6y ago
It's the same virus no matter where you are in the world. Weekly new cases (per capita) is the best metric for how likely you are to get it when you step outside.
- dr_dshiv 6y ago
  Mm, how to account for the percent of tests given that are positive? That seems like important information. BTW, this is a very well done indicator dashboard for the Netherlands. https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk
- hdjdbtbgwjsn 6y ago
  Weekly new hospital admissions is better. Case numbers are massively skewed by testing capacity.
  - bluGill 6y ago
    Even that isn't good - it doesn't account for people who don't go in and drop dead. It is suspected this is happening in India.
- rossdavidh 6y ago
  Well, as of early May there were 198 variants identified: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52557955 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52557955 We don't know that there's any difference, currently, between what variants are dominant in different parts of the world. But, we sure don't know they're the same, either.
- BlueScreenDeath 6y ago
  A virus is not computer code. They mutate.
- Wintamute 6y ago
  Completely false. Weekly new cases per capita is merely a function of number of tests performed by authorities, and furthermore the false positive rate of those tests too. Percent positivity of those tests is a somewhat more accurate indication, but those figures rarely see headlines because they are less sensationalist. For example, UK test positivity rates are less than 1/10th what they were at the peak.
war1025 6y ago
> I may be wrong but it seems that the number of confirmed cases isn't a great indicator either Personal anecdote, but I generally avoid doctors at pretty well all costs. I have one, and I go for my yearly physical when they call me to schedule it. Other than that, I've found the doctor to be a great way to waste a lot of money and get an ambiguous result. Usually, "Take pain killers for a week and see if it gets better" Since I am relatively well off, I have to imagine there is an enormous portion of the population who feels similarly to me about going to the doctor, and who also don't actually have the money to pay those bills. It seems likely to me that coronavirus cases are probably just going undetected among the less well off in (American) society, especially for the portion where the illness is mild (which is literally every case I have heard about in my area for people under 40).
- ballenf 6y ago
  Don't forget the average American can't afford a forced 2-week unpaid vacation, based on stats about debt levels and cash reserves.
  - war1025 6y ago
    Yea. The experience of the pandemic is pretty clearly split along class lines.
bluGill 6y ago
What about long term effects. If "mild" covid cases come back in 2 years as death (this does happen in the case of some diseases), or you are never seriously ill but have other problems. There has been speculation that Chronic Fatigue is caused by a seemly mild cold. We don't know what the long term effects might be. There are some reports that they are pretty bad, but nothing is confirmed.
- andai 6y ago
  I'd like to read more for that, if you can remember the source? I have chronic fatigue and am constantly stuffy, have I just had a cold for 20 years?
  - burning_hamster 6y ago
    Here is a recent review with open access: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6787585/pdf/diagnostics-09-00091.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6787585/pdf/dia... It's been a while since I left virology so I can't comment on the veracity of the article. It does look pretty comprehensive though, and a bunch of the articles I remember to have read a decade ago are referenced.
- dustinmoris 6y ago
  > this does happen in the case of some diseases Which disease is being cured by your body entirely and then comes back 2 years later with long term effects? > We don't know what the long term effects might be Isn't this true for everything though? How do you know if there are any long term effects for a new developed vaccine? Does it mean out of fear that theoretically anything in life can suddenly unexpectedly cause long term effects that you are not going to do anything which hasn't been done by other humans for at least 10-20 years? People don't know about long term effects of cellular data, yet we are using it every day. Given that nobody has any long term effects from COVID which are different from other post viral issues seen with the flu and normal colds I think it's more pragmatic to assume that COVID will also behave very similar to other coronaviruses like the common cold.
  - 6y ago

matthewdgreen 6y ago

I feel dumb here, but isn't "high mobility" being correlated with "high cases" kind of what you'd expect in a regime where the number of cases had previously been low, and then began to spread again?