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One interesting coronavirus metric I’ve been tracking is mobility indexes. I know it sounds tin-foil-hat-y but I don’t trust western media coverage on Russia or
by AJRF 6y ago
One interesting coronavirus metric I’ve been tracking is mobility indexes. I know it sounds tin-foil-hat-y but I don’t trust western media coverage on Russia or China and so to gauge the situation in those countries I’ve tried looking at data rather than opinion.
The Citymapper app has a “CityMapper Mobility Index” which shows what percentage of a given city is moving compared to a pre-March peg. It’s been interesting to see Moscow and St.Petersburg back to almost 100% capacity.
- JacobAldridge 6y agoBut is ‘city mobility’ a lead indicator of ‘rising new COVID cases’, or a lag indicator of ‘declining active COVID cases’? I could make the hypothesis for either (or both), so are you using it to track improvements in a city or prepare for worsening conditions?
- derbOac 6y agoProbably both-- it's probably why these cycles occur. Modeling positivity with mobility would be interesting.
- DoofusOfDeath 6y agoI had never occurred to me that something could be a leading indicator for changes in one direction but lagging in another. Thanks for upgrading my thinking!
- JacobAldridge 6y agoThanks for the comment! I’ve been doing a bit of research into various economic indicators aiming to help my (business owner) clients, and it pretty rapidly becomes a complicated mess of cause and effect. Take Unemployment - a lag indicator of economic conditions (things were better/worse last month and so people found/lost work); but also in a small way a lead indicator of economic conditions (more people in/out of work and the wider confidence arising from the news has an impact on future spending).
- mellosouls 6y agoI think you have misread the index. The first (100%ish) result is from March. The latest (70%ish) is at the bottom. There has been hardly any change since the vaccine was introduced in the middle of August. To be fair, it is not a well-designed UX (unusual for the superb CityMapper). https://citymapper.com/cmi/moscow https://citymapper.com/cmi/moscow
- AJRF 6y agoI think you’ve misread my comment. So I’ve said it’s interesting to see that both those cities are “back to almost 100% capacity” - almost being an operative word - from end of august to now Moscow has been @ 70-90% consistently, and St Petersburg has actually had 80-100+% in that time. I also see people jumping to conclusions around taking this to mean it’s now safe there, I never said, nor implied, that.
- mellosouls 6y agoFair enough, there has been a bit of change day to day but not overall from the vaccine release date compared to yesterday; they are pretty much the same (Moscow). St Petersburg seems more upbeat. I accept and know you were not saying it was safe; just commenting on the mobility (which is an interesting metric, thanks for the pointer) - but I don't agree with your interpretation of it wrt Moscow.
- elliekelly 6y agoI think it's quite a stretch to call any of the August or September numbers "almost 100%".
- robryan 6y agoThe Russian case numbers seem a bit unusual to me. How they have been between 5 and 10k cases for so long without either driving it down further or having it get out of control.
- golergka 6y agoThey're unusual because they're false.
- Andrew_nenakhov 6y agoBy falsifying data. Source: I'm from Russia. Russian fatality rate is probably somewhat lower in US / Europe, but it's only because our elder citizens (the most vulnerable group) have patriotically died long before reaching the age at which they become vulnerable to the virus.
- WalterSear 6y agoBy lying about it. https://google.com/search?q=russian+covid+vs+excess+mortality https://google.com/search?q=russian+covid+vs+excess+mortalit...
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- sjg007 6y agoOk comrade.
- dang 6y agoPlease don't do this here.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- mellosouls 6y agoWell, assuming that metric is a reliable indicator, that presumably just indicates the perception of the vaccine amongst the population is positive; it says little about the actual success of it. And what happens if the vaccine turns out to be a dud? How will that mobility then be positive, given the spread? And what about the damage to trust both in Russia and internationally for vaccine announcements after a failure there? I've obviously no idea about whether or not the vaccine works. The problem is - by international norms - neither do those deploying it, and yet they are.
- timwaagh 6y agothere have been no reports of people getting vaccinated on a large scale in russia (the article also implies this).
- apexalpha 6y agoDo you mean this one? https://citymapper.com/cmi https://citymapper.com/cmi Because it shows Moscow and St P at 79 and 88%. Around the same as Brussels but lower than Paris and Lyon.
- tim333 6y agoI think it must be. It's kind of interesting the data. You can see London shutting down around when I left and now can see Paris and Lyon as the most back to normal which maybe explains why there are a lot of new cases there now.
- jwagenet 6y agoI’m skeptical of this metric because the data seems to come from app usage and excludes auto traffic as a transit focused app. In SF I would peg the movement well above 8%. Maybe this app is mostly used by Euros and tourism is the gap...
- utrack 6y agoI doubt Citymapper is a good source. No one really uses their app there; except for tourists and new expats, I guess.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- niyaven 6y agoIf you look at yesterdays' stats, Lyon (#1) and Paris (#2) are respectively at 97% and 90% of usual mobility. Yet the number of confirmed cases in France, over the last 15 days, went from 293 024 to 404 888. This index won't tell you wether it's safe to move around or not, just what people are doing and what authorities are allowing.
- rhizome31 6y agoI may be wrong but it seems that the number of confirmed cases isn't a great indicator either because we've been testing a lot more so it's expected that we're getting more positives. What matters is the number of people who die or get seriously ill, isn't it?
- AlanSE 6y agoIt's the same virus no matter where you are in the world. Weekly new cases (per capita) is the best metric for how likely you are to get it when you step outside.
- dr_dshiv 6y agoMm, how to account for the percent of tests given that are positive? That seems like important information. BTW, this is a very well done indicator dashboard for the Netherlands. https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk
- hdjdbtbgwjsn 6y agoWeekly new hospital admissions is better. Case numbers are massively skewed by testing capacity.
- bluGill 6y agoEven that isn't good - it doesn't account for people who don't go in and drop dead. It is suspected this is happening in India.
- enjoyyourlife 6y agoGoogle (https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-09-11_RU_Mobility_Report_en.pdf https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-09-11_RU_Mobil...) shows that workplaces are still down by 29% but parks are up by 89%. That could be explained by increased unemployment or people still working from home
- skohan 6y agoSitting in Germany this makes me really wonder how things are going to change in winter. The parks have been exploding with people because with most of the indoor spaces closed, or only accessible with masks, this became one of the only ways to spend free time. Restaurants are now available as well, and people are back at work in a more limited way, but parks are still the dominant form of recreation in Berlin as far as I can tell. How is this going to change when it's not so pleasant to sit or walk outside anymore? I have the feeling that either case counts are going to rise, or mental health is going to become a bigger issue (even more so than it usually is at this latitude in the winter time).
- op00to 6y agoI plan on building fires, getting heavy coats, and staying outside anyway. :)
- chiefalchemist 6y agoBuy a snowboard. Get some exercise while you're at it :)
- rob74 6y agoSnow? In Berlin?! It'll melt before you get out to the park with your snowboard...
- skohan 6y agoBerlin used to have lots of snow. People used to worry about icicles falling on them. Even five years ago when I moved here we had a few big snowfalls. Not so much any more. I even bought a nice down jacket to brave the winters here but it turned out not to be a good investment. Of course finding so much as a small hill anywhere near here is a whole other problem...
- Razengan 6y ago> I know it sounds tin-foil-hat-y, I don’t trust western media coverage on Russia or China That's not tin-foil-hat-y at all. Of course Western media isn't going to paint a too rosy picture of traditional "adversaries" compared to their own countries. Look at how the situation in Belarus has all but eclipsed the protests against police brutality in the US. Even in Wikipedia's front page list of ongoing events! Apparently everything must be fine back home now.
- mola 6y agoSnatching people from the streets, turtur and arrests without trial or seeing a court. Sending the opposition to forced exile. That's just objectively worse than the shit going on in the US. But I do feel the US is getting there. This new war on crime the is planning, his sending federal agents to democratic states and basically calling parts of the population enemies is very worrying.
- baxtr 6y agoThere was an interesting study about Germany, that r0 went below 1 even before the nation wide shutdown because people started reducing their own mobility quite heavily. I can't find the source though.
- wry_discontent 6y agoI know it sounds tin-foil-hat-y but I don’t trust western media coverage on Russia or China This is a good principle irrespective of coronavirus. Western media has incessantly lied about Russia and China since the start of the cold war.
- demosito666 6y agoBut mobility index by itself doesn't tell you anything about the number of infected people. Without reliable statistics on coronavirus cases in the area you can't tell if the mobility is high because the infection is contained, or because nobody cares/knows. And there are reasons to doubt official stats on corona cases in Russian cities.