3 ms·

Looking at situation in India which is extremely crowded in many cities, the number of cases and deaths is relatively is very low. Many share the opinion that

Looking at situation in India which is extremely crowded in many cities, the number of cases and deaths is relatively is very low. Many share the opinion that there is some sort of immunity among the population here. Not sure about the scientific validity, but I'm inclined to believe that the lack of such immunity would have made the situation extremely dire by now.

nradov 6y ago
A recent study in Mumbai found that 57% of slums residents were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which indicated an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.05 - 0.10%. That's much lower than most other places and it's not clear what accounts for the discrepancy. https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-slums-16-in-non-slums-in-mumbai-says-survey-of-3-wards-6475141.htm https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-sl...
- lukeschlather 6y ago
  Any antibody testing done this year is pretty suspect. We simply don't know which tests have a high false-positive rate. Studies like that one should be testing the test but instead are trying to draw conclusions about the virus spread based on a test with unknown efficacy.
  - xorfish 6y ago
    How do you know, that the test wasn't tested? Most good seroprevalence studies combine the two.
  - nradov 6y ago
    Nope. They used the Abbott IgG antibody test which was validated to have 99.63% specificity and 100% sensitivity. There is no need for field researchers to test the test. Unless there was widespread contamination of specimens or something the study results are solid. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.27.20182741v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.27.20182741v... https://www.abbott.com/antibody-testing/top-COVID-19-antibody-test-questions.html https://www.abbott.com/antibody-testing/top-COVID-19-antibod...
- thehappypm 6y ago
  Young and thin people in the slums.
  - tuna-piano 6y ago
    Another guess: Even the indoor areas likely have no windows/doors and have tons of fresh air. So even if you get the virus, it's likely a lower initial viral load which seems to be correlated with less severe outcomes?
    - thehappypm 6y ago
      Maybe, but it is VERY densely populated, so it may negate that effect.
eldaisfish 6y ago
i would caution against taking data from India at face value. Estimates put the amount of COVID-19 infections in india at around 80 times the "official" count. See - https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/120920/icmr-shocker-india-missed-80-corona-cases-for-every-one-detected.html https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/12092... Further, there is a persistent myth among many from developing countries that constant exposure to unhygienic conditions improves one's "immunity". This has some truth for allergies but not for a disease that is quite literally new. Finally, i would not go by India's death figures. Countries like India and China have every reason to hide the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19.
- yewenjie 6y ago
  There is a massive difference between China and India in terms of information flow. India is very chaotic regarding centralized data control and it would be super hard to consistently fudge/ hide the death rates for this long.
  - eldaisfish 6y ago
    many of the dead in india aren't tested for COVID. Who's to say what the accurate number of COVID deaths. More info - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01865-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01865-w Remember also that India is the only country in the world to not acknowledge community transmission. There's little to no contact tracing happening. Regardless of information flow, India's COVID numbers are likely off by orders of magnitude.
  - xorfish 6y ago
    You don't need malice to get false deaths counts.

nradov 6y ago

A recent study in Mumbai found that 57% of slums residents were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, which indicated an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.05 - 0.10%. That's much lower than most other places and it's not clear what accounts for the discrepancy. https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-slums-16-in-non-slums-in-mumbai-says-survey-of-3-wards-6475141.htm https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/57-sero-prevalence-in-sl...

lukeschlather 6y ago
Any antibody testing done this year is pretty suspect. We simply don't know which tests have a high false-positive rate. Studies like that one should be testing the test but instead are trying to draw conclusions about the virus spread based on a test with unknown efficacy.
- xorfish 6y ago
  How do you know, that the test wasn't tested? Most good seroprevalence studies combine the two.
- nradov 6y ago
  Nope. They used the Abbott IgG antibody test which was validated to have 99.63% specificity and 100% sensitivity. There is no need for field researchers to test the test. Unless there was widespread contamination of specimens or something the study results are solid. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.27.20182741v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.27.20182741v... https://www.abbott.com/antibody-testing/top-COVID-19-antibody-test-questions.html https://www.abbott.com/antibody-testing/top-COVID-19-antibod...
thehappypm 6y ago
Young and thin people in the slums.
- tuna-piano 6y ago
  Another guess: Even the indoor areas likely have no windows/doors and have tons of fresh air. So even if you get the virus, it's likely a lower initial viral load which seems to be correlated with less severe outcomes?
  - thehappypm 6y ago
    Maybe, but it is VERY densely populated, so it may negate that effect.

eldaisfish 6y ago

i would caution against taking data from India at face value. Estimates put the amount of COVID-19 infections in india at around 80 times the "official" count. See - https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/120920/icmr-shocker-india-missed-80-corona-cases-for-every-one-detected.html https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/12092... Further, there is a persistent myth among many from developing countries that constant exposure to unhygienic conditions improves one's "immunity". This has some truth for allergies but not for a disease that is quite literally new. Finally, i would not go by India's death figures. Countries like India and China have every reason to hide the true number of deaths caused by COVID-19.

yewenjie 6y ago
There is a massive difference between China and India in terms of information flow. India is very chaotic regarding centralized data control and it would be super hard to consistently fudge/ hide the death rates for this long.
- eldaisfish 6y ago
  many of the dead in india aren't tested for COVID. Who's to say what the accurate number of COVID deaths. More info - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01865-w https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01865-w Remember also that India is the only country in the world to not acknowledge community transmission. There's little to no contact tracing happening. Regardless of information flow, India's COVID numbers are likely off by orders of magnitude.
- xorfish 6y ago
  You don't need malice to get false deaths counts.