3 ms·

I am currently negotiating* a commercial (office) lease in Beijing and I can honestly say the market is ridiculously overpriced. I have put in offers on a numb

I am currently negotiating* a commercial (office) lease in Beijing and I can honestly say the market is ridiculously overpriced. I have put in offers on a number of buildings in Beijing's Financial Street district[1] and there is literally no space available. There are tons of brand new, A-grade office buildings but they are all owned and less than 20% occupied by China Life, People's Life Insurance Company of China and other monolithic State owned enterprises that let the space sit idle and they leave the lights on all day and all night. The best office building in Beijing[2], was leasing office space at 300-400RMB/sqm per month less than 12 months ago and now they are turning you away if you offer less than 750RMB/sqm. The wierd thing is, some random domestic Chinese "investment" firm will actually pay that rent and happily move in. I do believe there is a major correction due, but the government does control the media so its hard to say how hard or soft the landing will be and how much we will hear about it. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Financial_Street http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Financial_Street [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_World_Trade_Center_Tower_III http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_World_Trade_Center_Tower_... * hence why I am posting anonymously.

roel_v 16y ago
To be honest though, 750RMB/sqm is still only not even 80 euros (115 USD). That's a discount price for office space in a remote industrial park in a provincial town here in the Netherlands. If that's considered widely overpriced in the top spot in Beijing, there's room left... (Anyone have recent numbers on the price of office space in Manhattan?)
- zaidf 16y ago
  I just moved into a 15th floor small cubicle office overlooking Madison sq garden for $300/mo. I couldn't find such deals in my non-NYC college town.
- adaml_623 16y ago
  Please don't compare prices by just converting directly to another currency. It's too simplistic. You have to take into account taxes, salaries, property prices, the economy and a lot of other things. IMHO
  - roel_v 16y ago
    To a certain degree you're right, but when comparing economies that have roughly reached parity, a dollar to dollar comparison can give a rough estimate of the merit of valuations; and otherwise, it can be used to estimate the distance between economies. What I meant with my comment is that if the most expensive (? I'm assuming that here) real estate in Beijing is only a fraction of similar real estate classes elsewhere, the Chinese economy still has room to catch up with the real estate prices. It's not a particularly wise idea that the Chinese economy isn't up to par with the US and European economies of course, it just shows that maybe what is considered so heavily overpriced may not really be so in the medium term, if only the rest of the economy can keep up (which I doubt it can, but that's a different discussion).
    - joe_the_user 16y ago
      "over-priced" is always relative to supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand and there is no correction, the economy moves in a distorted and irrational fashion, preparing the way for larger corrections in the future. The parent had hard evidence supply seriously exceeded demand. What do you have in that department?

roel_v 16y ago

To be honest though, 750RMB/sqm is still only not even 80 euros (115 USD). That's a discount price for office space in a remote industrial park in a provincial town here in the Netherlands. If that's considered widely overpriced in the top spot in Beijing, there's room left... (Anyone have recent numbers on the price of office space in Manhattan?)

zaidf 16y ago
I just moved into a 15th floor small cubicle office overlooking Madison sq garden for $300/mo. I couldn't find such deals in my non-NYC college town.
adaml_623 16y ago
Please don't compare prices by just converting directly to another currency. It's too simplistic. You have to take into account taxes, salaries, property prices, the economy and a lot of other things. IMHO
- roel_v 16y ago
  To a certain degree you're right, but when comparing economies that have roughly reached parity, a dollar to dollar comparison can give a rough estimate of the merit of valuations; and otherwise, it can be used to estimate the distance between economies. What I meant with my comment is that if the most expensive (? I'm assuming that here) real estate in Beijing is only a fraction of similar real estate classes elsewhere, the Chinese economy still has room to catch up with the real estate prices. It's not a particularly wise idea that the Chinese economy isn't up to par with the US and European economies of course, it just shows that maybe what is considered so heavily overpriced may not really be so in the medium term, if only the rest of the economy can keep up (which I doubt it can, but that's a different discussion).
  - joe_the_user 16y ago
    "over-priced" is always relative to supply and demand. When supply exceeds demand and there is no correction, the economy moves in a distorted and irrational fashion, preparing the way for larger corrections in the future. The parent had hard evidence supply seriously exceeded demand. What do you have in that department?