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I have a statistically higher chance of dying in a car accident in the 2.5 hour drive to visit my parents than I do of dying from Covid-19. You didn't do one b

I have a statistically higher chance of dying in a car accident in the 2.5 hour drive to visit my parents than I do of dying from Covid-19. You didn't do one bit of math before writing that. In 2.5 hours, about 10 people will die in car accidents in the US. (100 per day) Versus about 100 people from Covid (1000 per day). Only 8% of the US population does NOT have access to a car. Exclude the elderly and children.. but that's still not enough of a difference to explain an order of magnitude more deaths. You draw a lot of conclusions from rhetoric instead of facts. That's exactly what got us into this mess.

henriquez 6y ago
Well except that recorded Covid-19 deaths are statistically inseparable from deaths due to comorbidities and the overwhelming majority of recorded deaths were over 55 years old and had two or more comorbidities. The number of recorded Covid-19 deaths with zero comorbidities is some infinitesimal fraction (< 10%) of the overall “death count.” So, yes, as a perfectly healthy mid-30s adult I have a higher chance of dying in a car accident. If anything we’ve successfully argued why people with comorbid risk factors (old age, diabetes, asthma, obesity, etc.) should remain isolated, but even that is looking sketchy as the death rate continues to plummet.
- WalterGR 6y ago
  the overwhelming majority of recorded deaths were over 55 years old and had two or more comorbidities. The number of recorded Covid-19 deaths with zero comorbidities is some infinitesimal fraction (< 10%) of the overall “death count.” A comorbidity is something that contributed to death, not necessarily a pre-existing condition. Please take another look at the CDC report you’re extrapolating your claim from. You’ll see comorbidities such as * Influenza and pneumonia * Adult respiratory distress syndrome * Respiratory failure * Respiratory arrest * Cardiac arrest As it stands you’re essentially saying that if you have no pre-existing conditions, then being shot is fairly risk free. After all, people who die from gunshot wounds have comorbidities like blood loss, cardiac arrest, brain damage, laceration of internal organs, and sepsis.
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nradov 6y ago
It's difficult to have a sensible, objective discussion about relative risks because the numbers vary tremendously for individuals. Here are the latest estimates of infection fatality rate by age. 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... Of those that died in all age groups, the majority had at least one serious pre-existing condition prior to infection. In general most healthy young people are at higher risk from vehicle accidents than COVID-19, but the risk calculus changes significantly for those who are older or in poor health.

henriquez 6y ago

Well except that recorded Covid-19 deaths are statistically inseparable from deaths due to comorbidities and the overwhelming majority of recorded deaths were over 55 years old and had two or more comorbidities. The number of recorded Covid-19 deaths with zero comorbidities is some infinitesimal fraction (< 10%) of the overall “death count.” So, yes, as a perfectly healthy mid-30s adult I have a higher chance of dying in a car accident. If anything we’ve successfully argued why people with comorbid risk factors (old age, diabetes, asthma, obesity, etc.) should remain isolated, but even that is looking sketchy as the death rate continues to plummet.

WalterGR 6y ago
the overwhelming majority of recorded deaths were over 55 years old and had two or more comorbidities. The number of recorded Covid-19 deaths with zero comorbidities is some infinitesimal fraction (< 10%) of the overall “death count.” A comorbidity is something that contributed to death, not necessarily a pre-existing condition. Please take another look at the CDC report you’re extrapolating your claim from. You’ll see comorbidities such as * Influenza and pneumonia * Adult respiratory distress syndrome * Respiratory failure * Respiratory arrest * Cardiac arrest As it stands you’re essentially saying that if you have no pre-existing conditions, then being shot is fairly risk free. After all, people who die from gunshot wounds have comorbidities like blood loss, cardiac arrest, brain damage, laceration of internal organs, and sepsis.

deleted 6y ago

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nradov 6y ago

It's difficult to have a sensible, objective discussion about relative risks because the numbers vary tremendously for individuals. Here are the latest estimates of infection fatality rate by age. 0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1 https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... Of those that died in all age groups, the majority had at least one serious pre-existing condition prior to infection. In general most healthy young people are at higher risk from vehicle accidents than COVID-19, but the risk calculus changes significantly for those who are older or in poor health.