2 ms·

I doubt even if it becomes ten times less lethal people are going to exit panic mode.

gnusty_gnurc 6y ago
True - the major modes of consuming media have cemented this too. It doesn't benefit anyone to say that things aren't worth panicking over. In terms of politics and worldview, things must be dire otherwise there's substantially less reason for protesting, voting one way or the other, enforcing draconian laws, passing unimaginably large stimulus, etc.
teawrecks 6y ago
On the flip side, it could become 10x MORE lethal, and people would still be blissfully ignoring it.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I dunno. It's been well known for a while that the first vaccines are likely to have substantially less than 90% effectiveness, but most leaders are still pointing to a widely distributed vaccine as the end of panic mode.
- salmon30salmon 6y ago
  Could you cite this assertion? The data that I've reviewed shows a pretty robust immune response, especially given a booster within 1 month. This is specifically for the mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna. Please also remember, when speaking of the United States, around 15% of the population has already been infected by SARS-COV-2[1], and even the most pessimistic of epidemiologists say that herd immunity is around 60%. So we need "infect" 45% more of the population to give COVID-19 a knockout blow. even 50% efficacy (which I believe is the standard lower bound for an approved vaccine), 300 million doses should do quite nicely (600 if you count boosters, which I should have). Those are all worst case scenarios. Most likely, the efficacy will be higher than 50% (maybe not 90%, but I think 75% is safe) and most likely herd immunity is below 60% (due to heterogeneity in mixing and t-cell "immunity"). Things are looking up! [1] https://covid19-projections.com/us https://covid19-projections.com/us
  - lsllc 6y ago
    The BBC had an interesting article on the "hidden protection from COVID19" from T-cell "immunity": https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-... The article references this paper: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf "Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in 40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."

True - the major modes of consuming media have cemented this too. It doesn't benefit anyone to say that things aren't worth panicking over. In terms of politics and worldview, things must be dire otherwise there's substantially less reason for protesting, voting one way or the other, enforcing draconian laws, passing unimaginably large stimulus, etc.

teawrecks 6y ago

On the flip side, it could become 10x MORE lethal, and people would still be blissfully ignoring it.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

I dunno. It's been well known for a while that the first vaccines are likely to have substantially less than 90% effectiveness, but most leaders are still pointing to a widely distributed vaccine as the end of panic mode.

salmon30salmon 6y ago
Could you cite this assertion? The data that I've reviewed shows a pretty robust immune response, especially given a booster within 1 month. This is specifically for the mRNA vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna. Please also remember, when speaking of the United States, around 15% of the population has already been infected by SARS-COV-2[1], and even the most pessimistic of epidemiologists say that herd immunity is around 60%. So we need "infect" 45% more of the population to give COVID-19 a knockout blow. even 50% efficacy (which I believe is the standard lower bound for an approved vaccine), 300 million doses should do quite nicely (600 if you count boosters, which I should have). Those are all worst case scenarios. Most likely, the efficacy will be higher than 50% (maybe not 90%, but I think 75% is safe) and most likely herd immunity is below 60% (due to heterogeneity in mixing and t-cell "immunity"). Things are looking up! [1] https://covid19-projections.com/us https://covid19-projections.com/us
- lsllc 6y ago
  The BBC had an interesting article on the "hidden protection from COVID19" from T-cell "immunity": https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19 https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-... The article references this paper: https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf "Importantly, we detected SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in 40%–60% of unexposed individuals, suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘‘common cold’’ coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2."