3 ms·

It doesn't even have to be a "bad" vaccine. The FDA has already said that 50% effectiveness would be sufficient, which would put it about on par with the season

It doesn't even have to be a "bad" vaccine. The FDA has already said that 50% effectiveness would be sufficient, which would put it about on par with the seasonal flu vaccine. Combined with a high baseline infection rate, and an aggressive testing regime (at least compared to flu/other non-pandemic diseases), there will be a lot of people who get vaccinated and proceed to get sick and test positive. The real evidence of the vaccine working would be by the herd immunity it creates. But that is a population level effect, and people are terrible at understanding population level effects.

lettergram 6y ago
> The FDA has already said that 50% effectiveness would be sufficient, which would put it about on par with the seasonal flu vaccine. I think it’s difficult to quantify how successful the flu vaccine is. I’ve reviewed the numbers and it’s not clear the general flu vaccine does anything. That being said, targeting specific strains can help (problem with flu is the various strains and ability to mutate so easily).
- liability 6y ago
  They make a new flu vaccine twice a year and effectiveness is quantified each time. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates...
  - lettergram 6y ago
    The problem is correlations. The flu naturally varies in severity by region, age, time, etc. Even the studies you linked, anything prior to 2010 is suspect by participant counts being way too low. More recent studies appear better, BUT we don’t have anything prior to when vaccines started to compare. I’m not saying the evidence isn’t there, I am arguing it’s circumstantial - aka not definitive how much it helps. Flu itself varies in severity widely. I’m honestly convinced the entire flu vaccine program / push is to keep the industry active. This is similar to the DOD spending money on new weapons they don’t need to keep manufacturing going
  - nradov 6y ago
    The NIH is attempting to develop a universal influenza vaccine. A clinical trial is currently underway. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/universal-influenza-vaccine-research https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/universal-infl...
ssully 6y ago
My understanding is that while prevent infection using the vaccine is a big goal, the other more important goal is that it triggers a better response in people when they do get sick. Specifically, if you get the vaccine and then go on to catch the virus, your body will fight it better and you will have minor symptoms (and hopefully don't go to the ICU). I will say that everything I've said is just from what I read. If someone with an actual medical background knows more, I would love to hear it.
- gizmo686 6y ago
  That is my understanding as well, but it is entirely irrelevant to the point being made. If someone on the anti-vax margins get the vaccine and proceeds to get sick and test positive, the are more likely to say "the vaccine doesn't work" compared with "I would have gotten more sick if I wasn't vaccinated". You also wont here all the stories of people who got the vaccine and proceeded to not get sick; so there is a sampling bias to hearing about cases where the vaccine doesn't work as well. The concern here is about the longterm PR of vaccinations, not the technical benefits of the vaccine.

lettergram 6y ago

> The FDA has already said that 50% effectiveness would be sufficient, which would put it about on par with the seasonal flu vaccine. I think it’s difficult to quantify how successful the flu vaccine is. I’ve reviewed the numbers and it’s not clear the general flu vaccine does anything. That being said, targeting specific strains can help (problem with flu is the various strains and ability to mutate so easily).

liability 6y ago
They make a new flu vaccine twice a year and effectiveness is quantified each time. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates...
- lettergram 6y ago
  The problem is correlations. The flu naturally varies in severity by region, age, time, etc. Even the studies you linked, anything prior to 2010 is suspect by participant counts being way too low. More recent studies appear better, BUT we don’t have anything prior to when vaccines started to compare. I’m not saying the evidence isn’t there, I am arguing it’s circumstantial - aka not definitive how much it helps. Flu itself varies in severity widely. I’m honestly convinced the entire flu vaccine program / push is to keep the industry active. This is similar to the DOD spending money on new weapons they don’t need to keep manufacturing going
- nradov 6y ago
  The NIH is attempting to develop a universal influenza vaccine. A clinical trial is currently underway. https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/universal-influenza-vaccine-research https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/universal-infl...

ssully 6y ago

My understanding is that while prevent infection using the vaccine is a big goal, the other more important goal is that it triggers a better response in people when they do get sick. Specifically, if you get the vaccine and then go on to catch the virus, your body will fight it better and you will have minor symptoms (and hopefully don't go to the ICU). I will say that everything I've said is just from what I read. If someone with an actual medical background knows more, I would love to hear it.

gizmo686 6y ago
That is my understanding as well, but it is entirely irrelevant to the point being made. If someone on the anti-vax margins get the vaccine and proceeds to get sick and test positive, the are more likely to say "the vaccine doesn't work" compared with "I would have gotten more sick if I wasn't vaccinated". You also wont here all the stories of people who got the vaccine and proceeded to not get sick; so there is a sampling bias to hearing about cases where the vaccine doesn't work as well. The concern here is about the longterm PR of vaccinations, not the technical benefits of the vaccine.