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Wow, I had the same issue. I'm an ad-noob in the fullest sense of the word, but I tried the Google "Smart Ad". It turned out the same way you mentioned. I lo

Wow, I had the same issue. I'm an ad-noob in the fullest sense of the word, but I tried the Google "Smart Ad". It turned out the same way you mentioned. I looked at where my clicks were coming from, and they were all pretty much from Hindi oriented Youtube channels. I was baffled at how that happened as I targeted US/Canada as you did.

kzrdude 6y ago
It seems like pay-per-click and similar models should just be discontinued, they don't work since they can be exploited. An independently verifiable metric needs to be used (if the price for the ad should be traffic or interaction based) - or something completely different. Fixed prices?
- radicaldreamer 6y ago
  There's a large circular economy with ad buyers, marketing/PR firms, ad-tech, and ad networks going on where a large amount of fraud is overlooked/ignored because everyone's jobs and ad budgets depend on ignoring it.
  - Macha 6y ago
    Sometimes it's just priced in. If partner A has a 10% fraud rate and partner B has a 5% rate but partner A is 10% cheaper than partner B, while you'll probably complain to partner A it's still the sensible choice.
    - dhimes 6y ago
      It's hard to get the numbers, though. I mean, I guess we could ask....
      - Macha 6y ago
        Well, at my last employer we had our own systems analyzing traffic, we had integrations with third parties (DoubleVerify being the biggest) to detect fraud, our clients often had their own third party integrations to detect fraud and would complain if we hadn't found it but they did at too high a rate, etc. Honestly after the ad images/video, all the fraud detection javascript from the advertiser, the publisher, the advertiser's system of choice, the publisher's system of choice all doing "trust but verify" with each other is the largest contributor to how big ads are.
        bluGill 6y ago
        Every been to a big break and motor store and they asked for your zip code? That is because they have someone in the back office to wants to see if the ads - dead tree paper - they spent to your zip code worked. It isn't hard to work the numbers from there, but it is tedious and requires some statistics.
        Scoundreller 6y ago
        Heh, I always find it funny when I buy a non-recurring thing, but keep seeing ads for it. Best was when I kept seeing ads for a thing I was selling. I visited some big box sites about it to copy the specs on it.
        WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
        The vacuum problem... the issue is that it's kinda hit or miss to come up with items that are related to the vacuum and to do it over a time period. I think if ads were smarter, you'd get ads for your vacuum's filter a few months after buying it and maybe replacement pieces just after warranty, but what do I know?
        Scoundreller 6y ago
        Maybe some Toyota ads after owning a Mercedes for >5 years?
        6y ago
    - TeMPOraL 6y ago
      It's not just clickfraud. Attribution is a hard problem that leaves a lot of space to bullshit people. A/B tests require degree-level understanding of statistics to conduct properly, which isn't common in companies, particularly when correctness doesn't matter if the test is just used to confirm preconceptions or justify budgets. Etc.
    - Scoundreller 6y ago
      > Sometimes it's just priced in. Agreed. The real losers are the genuine content creators, as the adcash isn’t flowing to them. They can’t just average it out.
      - quineoa 6y ago
        Yep. Got banned from Google ad mob because the ads I bought using other Google services gave me traffic that was deemed to be fraud. Of course there’s no way to contact and tell Google that Google gave me fraud traffic and got me banned from Google.
        behringer 6y ago
        Don't worry. Some rando at Google is bound to see this message or the next one!
  - qppo 6y ago
    Sounds a bit like the "systemic failures" that brought down the housing market in 2008. It's always been a surprise to me how much money is flowing from ads and how any business can be so reliant on it, since this makes it sound like it's fundamentally flawed. One would think the jig would eventually be up.
    - yters 6y ago
      The whole thing is propped up with CIA money. I saw an Onion exposé on this.
    - mumblemumble 6y ago
      It'll be interesting to see what happens when the jig is finally up, since there's so much stuff we're used to getting for free that is currently financed by all of this: email, maps and GPS navigation, staying in contact with college friends, ...
      - _def 6y ago
        FOSS and paid services will rise and shine.
        liability 6y ago
        For navigation to a known address, OSMAnd works great. Google Maps is better at search, particularly for commercial destinations, and has a slicker interface. For everything else, particularly navigation off road (on trails or otherwise) OSM excels. OSM has much more detail than Google Maps for things like parks and trails, frequently even having the locations of water fountains (this has saved my ass a few times.) I guess my point is the alternatives to Google Maps aren't perfect but they have a lot more to offer than many people assume. When I drove across Canada, from Ottawa to Anchorage, OSM never let me down. It's a viable alternative.
      - paxys 6y ago
        Honestly I think we'll be fine. If the services are worth something then people will be willing to pay for them. Newspapers, magazines, email, satellite radio, navigation systems etc. all existed (and were very profitable) well before online advertising became what it is now. We might even be better off that way.
  - akulbe 6y ago
    Are they all like this, in that they're easy to exploit and there are high occurrences of fraud? I wonder what would be reliable ways to spend money for advertising, then? I'm new to this, but I was thinking about spending some money for some online marketing until reading this.
- nickff 6y ago
  All the metrics for advertisement sales have been gamed for as long as I know of (at least 20 years); this goes for paper, online, television, and radio. Smart advertisers know what's going on, and they take the 'gaming' into account.
  - kzrdude 6y ago
    I've been waiting so long for it to be a bubble that pops, web ads just can't be worth that much when they are so bad. I see some "captive" ads now, and I can imagine those are worth so much more - for example instagram play-between ads. No wonder the open web is dying.
- srtjstjsj 6y ago
  Conversion tracking is the much loathed "spying/stalking" of ads.

kzrdude 6y ago

It seems like pay-per-click and similar models should just be discontinued, they don't work since they can be exploited. An independently verifiable metric needs to be used (if the price for the ad should be traffic or interaction based) - or something completely different. Fixed prices?

radicaldreamer 6y ago
There's a large circular economy with ad buyers, marketing/PR firms, ad-tech, and ad networks going on where a large amount of fraud is overlooked/ignored because everyone's jobs and ad budgets depend on ignoring it.
- Macha 6y ago
  Sometimes it's just priced in. If partner A has a 10% fraud rate and partner B has a 5% rate but partner A is 10% cheaper than partner B, while you'll probably complain to partner A it's still the sensible choice.
  - dhimes 6y ago
    It's hard to get the numbers, though. I mean, I guess we could ask....
    - Macha 6y ago
      Well, at my last employer we had our own systems analyzing traffic, we had integrations with third parties (DoubleVerify being the biggest) to detect fraud, our clients often had their own third party integrations to detect fraud and would complain if we hadn't found it but they did at too high a rate, etc. Honestly after the ad images/video, all the fraud detection javascript from the advertiser, the publisher, the advertiser's system of choice, the publisher's system of choice all doing "trust but verify" with each other is the largest contributor to how big ads are.
      - bluGill 6y ago
        Every been to a big break and motor store and they asked for your zip code? That is because they have someone in the back office to wants to see if the ads - dead tree paper - they spent to your zip code worked. It isn't hard to work the numbers from there, but it is tedious and requires some statistics.
        Scoundreller 6y ago
        Heh, I always find it funny when I buy a non-recurring thing, but keep seeing ads for it. Best was when I kept seeing ads for a thing I was selling. I visited some big box sites about it to copy the specs on it.
        WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
        The vacuum problem... the issue is that it's kinda hit or miss to come up with items that are related to the vacuum and to do it over a time period. I think if ads were smarter, you'd get ads for your vacuum's filter a few months after buying it and maybe replacement pieces just after warranty, but what do I know?
        Scoundreller 6y ago
        Maybe some Toyota ads after owning a Mercedes for >5 years?
        6y ago
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    It's not just clickfraud. Attribution is a hard problem that leaves a lot of space to bullshit people. A/B tests require degree-level understanding of statistics to conduct properly, which isn't common in companies, particularly when correctness doesn't matter if the test is just used to confirm preconceptions or justify budgets. Etc.
  - Scoundreller 6y ago
    > Sometimes it's just priced in. Agreed. The real losers are the genuine content creators, as the adcash isn’t flowing to them. They can’t just average it out.
    - quineoa 6y ago
      Yep. Got banned from Google ad mob because the ads I bought using other Google services gave me traffic that was deemed to be fraud. Of course there’s no way to contact and tell Google that Google gave me fraud traffic and got me banned from Google.
      - behringer 6y ago
        Don't worry. Some rando at Google is bound to see this message or the next one!
- qppo 6y ago
  Sounds a bit like the "systemic failures" that brought down the housing market in 2008. It's always been a surprise to me how much money is flowing from ads and how any business can be so reliant on it, since this makes it sound like it's fundamentally flawed. One would think the jig would eventually be up.
  - yters 6y ago
    The whole thing is propped up with CIA money. I saw an Onion exposé on this.
  - mumblemumble 6y ago
    It'll be interesting to see what happens when the jig is finally up, since there's so much stuff we're used to getting for free that is currently financed by all of this: email, maps and GPS navigation, staying in contact with college friends, ...
    - _def 6y ago
      FOSS and paid services will rise and shine.
      - liability 6y ago
        For navigation to a known address, OSMAnd works great. Google Maps is better at search, particularly for commercial destinations, and has a slicker interface. For everything else, particularly navigation off road (on trails or otherwise) OSM excels. OSM has much more detail than Google Maps for things like parks and trails, frequently even having the locations of water fountains (this has saved my ass a few times.) I guess my point is the alternatives to Google Maps aren't perfect but they have a lot more to offer than many people assume. When I drove across Canada, from Ottawa to Anchorage, OSM never let me down. It's a viable alternative.
    - paxys 6y ago
      Honestly I think we'll be fine. If the services are worth something then people will be willing to pay for them. Newspapers, magazines, email, satellite radio, navigation systems etc. all existed (and were very profitable) well before online advertising became what it is now. We might even be better off that way.
- akulbe 6y ago
  Are they all like this, in that they're easy to exploit and there are high occurrences of fraud? I wonder what would be reliable ways to spend money for advertising, then? I'm new to this, but I was thinking about spending some money for some online marketing until reading this.
nickff 6y ago
All the metrics for advertisement sales have been gamed for as long as I know of (at least 20 years); this goes for paper, online, television, and radio. Smart advertisers know what's going on, and they take the 'gaming' into account.
- kzrdude 6y ago
  I've been waiting so long for it to be a bubble that pops, web ads just can't be worth that much when they are so bad. I see some "captive" ads now, and I can imagine those are worth so much more - for example instagram play-between ads. No wonder the open web is dying.
srtjstjsj 6y ago
Conversion tracking is the much loathed "spying/stalking" of ads.