6 ms·

> I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. What? What could the US

by blhack 6y ago

> I can't help but imagine how different it would be if the US and EU/Britain (as leads) would have strongly denounced their approach. What? What could the US have done beyond what we did other than all out war? The US response to this was very harsh. We undid 50 years of diplomacy with China, and have started building a sortof SEA equivalent to NATO. Chinese/American relations have probably never been as unfriendly as they are right now, and Hong Kong is a major part of that. Seriously I don’t know what the next step would be that wasn’t a de facto, weapons-hot war.

magicsmoke 6y ago
I think the dissonance over the US not doing enough is that if the US pulled these moves a decade or two ago, China would have blinked. China not blinking doesn't mean the US isn't doing enough. It means we're living in a world where China doesn't blink anymore. America's absolute influence might still be the same, but its relative influence has fallen.
- ianai 6y ago
  Right or wrong, I suggest you and others go back to interviews of Kissinger about why he pushed to open the world to China the way the US did. It was essentially do it on our terms now or theirs for ever after. Not that it was right, but it is informative.
  - thewarrior 6y ago
    Couldn’t find it can you share a link ?
    - ianai 6y ago
      Personally I watched an old episode of “Firing Line” on amazon prime with him and Ariana Huffington on it. Ariana was arguing against trade with China. Edit-might be this one: https://youtu.be/U4bBftiRo2Q https://youtu.be/U4bBftiRo2Q
- dirtyid 6y ago
  China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. If US pulled this 20 years ago, China wouldn't have cooperated on bailing the west out of 08 GFC. Also 20 years ago US bombed Chinese embassy in Belgrade a few years after 3rd Taiwan Strait crisis. That would have been a very different timeline.
  - hker 6y ago
    > China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. Except when it does, quietly accepting losing Vladivostok to Russia (Chinese [1] Google translate [2]). Vladivostok was lost during the same era Hong Kong was lost. [1] https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官方尷尬-選擇性勸接受 https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官... [2] https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官方尷尬-選擇性勸接受 https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...
    - dirtyid 6y ago
      China = modern CCP Vladivostok was never part of any inherited territory dispute which CCP inherited from ROC who inherited from Qin. Settling border disputes is not analogous to ceding sovereignty, i.e. CCP has no issues settling 12/14 border disputes, most with more Chinese land concessions. But when it comes to core sovereignty issues like Tibet, XJ, HK, Taiwan, part of the century of humiliation narrative hole CCP has dug itself into, they do not compromise on or at least have sunk too much political legitimacy in the last 50 years to ever renege on. Historic exceptions being Mongolia and 11dash down to 9dash in the 50s, when CCP was an infant. Contemporary loose end is pretty much Arunachal Pradesh which CCP is willing to package swap for Aksai China with India which will also resolve Bhutan border.
souterrain 6y ago
This is remarkably confusing to read on my Chinese-manufactured mobile device I bought from an American company.
bitxbitxbitcoin 6y ago
I think the onus here was more on the UK than the US because the UK was the one with an agreement with the Chinese government that was broken. I agree that the US response has already been a lot.
- toyg 6y ago
  The UK effectively offered asylum to millions of HKers, in a move basically unprecedented after WWII, and drew a line over previous plans to coordinate on things like 5G and nuclear. What else could they have done? In a world of superpowers, the UK alone is small potatoes.
  - andi999 6y ago
    Any source for that asylum claim?
    - toyg 6y ago
      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899 Also discussed on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23701333 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23701333 I am absolutely no fan of the current UK admin but on this issue I think they've done the decent thing (which surprised me, tbh).
      - andi999 6y ago
        thanks. just to clarify, it is not asylum and not yet available (but this is not criticism it is very good) https://www.gov.uk/guidance/british-nationals-overseas-in-hong-kong https://www.gov.uk/guidance/british-nationals-overseas-in-ho... I dont know about the uk, but prob biggest diff to asylum is, that people in asylum get money/provisions while in this scheme you need to bring money (modest 6 month worth though)
treeman79 6y ago
Starting a revolution would be next step. Goes both ways though.
KallDrexx 6y ago
The problem is the US has done a lot (though it's not solely to blame) to propel China up on the world stage, especially in the last decade+. We have given up a lot of our world leadership duties in many aspects and China wasted no time in filling any voids that we left behind. This isn't just a Trump thing (though he has accelerated pulling the US out of leadership positions) but it goes back to the lack of response to the Crimea annexation (and Russia's continual pushing of it's Ukrainian boundary). China has spent the last several decades smartly becoming more diversified in what countries they depend on, while at the same time making sure the whole world was heavily reliant on themselves. Due to that no one country can do anything to keep China in check, and in normal times that would be OK. However, the world has relied on the US to form global coalitions that would work together to push back against things like this, and now that the US has made it clear it will not work with anyone else (even allies), China knows that no other country has the influence to form such a coalition. That means it doesn't even need to be coy about what it's doing (as we are seeing with Hong Kong). So yeah, I agree that in 2019 and 2020 the US and Eu/Britain couldn't have done anything meaningful, but what's happening right now is heavily caused by the US' pulling out of the world stage leading up to it.
- swordsmith 6y ago
  > China knows that no other country has the influence to form such a coalition. That means it doesn't even need to be coy about what it's doing At least now that CCP is showing its true colors, the world is more aware of its threat.
markvdb 6y ago
> What? What could the US have done beyond what we did other than all out war? The US response to this was very harsh. Signing the TPP could have helped _a lot_. DT gave China _a lot_ of diplomatic leverage there, for free...
- mensetmanusman 6y ago
  Both parties were getting out of the TPP, because a deal was made that helped the rich but ‘hurt’ China.

by blhack 6y ago

magicsmoke 6y ago

I think the dissonance over the US not doing enough is that if the US pulled these moves a decade or two ago, China would have blinked. China not blinking doesn't mean the US isn't doing enough. It means we're living in a world where China doesn't blink anymore. America's absolute influence might still be the same, but its relative influence has fallen.

ianai 6y ago
Right or wrong, I suggest you and others go back to interviews of Kissinger about why he pushed to open the world to China the way the US did. It was essentially do it on our terms now or theirs for ever after. Not that it was right, but it is informative.
- thewarrior 6y ago
  Couldn’t find it can you share a link ?
  - ianai 6y ago
    Personally I watched an old episode of “Firing Line” on amazon prime with him and Ariana Huffington on it. Ariana was arguing against trade with China. Edit-might be this one: https://youtu.be/U4bBftiRo2Q https://youtu.be/U4bBftiRo2Q
dirtyid 6y ago
China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. If US pulled this 20 years ago, China wouldn't have cooperated on bailing the west out of 08 GFC. Also 20 years ago US bombed Chinese embassy in Belgrade a few years after 3rd Taiwan Strait crisis. That would have been a very different timeline.
- hker 6y ago
  > China doesn't compromise on sovereignty issues, period. Except when it does, quietly accepting losing Vladivostok to Russia (Chinese [1] Google translate [2]). Vladivostok was lost during the same era Hong Kong was lost. [1] https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官方尷尬-選擇性勸接受 https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官... [2] https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官方尷尬-選擇性勸接受 https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...
  - dirtyid 6y ago
    China = modern CCP Vladivostok was never part of any inherited territory dispute which CCP inherited from ROC who inherited from Qin. Settling border disputes is not analogous to ceding sovereignty, i.e. CCP has no issues settling 12/14 border disputes, most with more Chinese land concessions. But when it comes to core sovereignty issues like Tibet, XJ, HK, Taiwan, part of the century of humiliation narrative hole CCP has dug itself into, they do not compromise on or at least have sunk too much political legitimacy in the last 50 years to ever renege on. Historic exceptions being Mongolia and 11dash down to 9dash in the 50s, when CCP was an infant. Contemporary loose end is pretty much Arunachal Pradesh which CCP is willing to package swap for Aksai China with India which will also resolve Bhutan border.

souterrain 6y ago

This is remarkably confusing to read on my Chinese-manufactured mobile device I bought from an American company.

bitxbitxbitcoin 6y ago

I think the onus here was more on the UK than the US because the UK was the one with an agreement with the Chinese government that was broken. I agree that the US response has already been a lot.

toyg 6y ago
The UK effectively offered asylum to millions of HKers, in a move basically unprecedented after WWII, and drew a line over previous plans to coordinate on things like 5G and nuclear. What else could they have done? In a world of superpowers, the UK alone is small potatoes.
- andi999 6y ago
  Any source for that asylum claim?
  - toyg 6y ago
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53246899 Also discussed on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23701333 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23701333 I am absolutely no fan of the current UK admin but on this issue I think they've done the decent thing (which surprised me, tbh).
    - andi999 6y ago
      thanks. just to clarify, it is not asylum and not yet available (but this is not criticism it is very good) https://www.gov.uk/guidance/british-nationals-overseas-in-hong-kong https://www.gov.uk/guidance/british-nationals-overseas-in-ho... I dont know about the uk, but prob biggest diff to asylum is, that people in asylum get money/provisions while in this scheme you need to bring money (modest 6 month worth though)

treeman79 6y ago

Starting a revolution would be next step. Goes both ways though.

KallDrexx 6y ago

The problem is the US has done a lot (though it's not solely to blame) to propel China up on the world stage, especially in the last decade+. We have given up a lot of our world leadership duties in many aspects and China wasted no time in filling any voids that we left behind. This isn't just a Trump thing (though he has accelerated pulling the US out of leadership positions) but it goes back to the lack of response to the Crimea annexation (and Russia's continual pushing of it's Ukrainian boundary). China has spent the last several decades smartly becoming more diversified in what countries they depend on, while at the same time making sure the whole world was heavily reliant on themselves. Due to that no one country can do anything to keep China in check, and in normal times that would be OK. However, the world has relied on the US to form global coalitions that would work together to push back against things like this, and now that the US has made it clear it will not work with anyone else (even allies), China knows that no other country has the influence to form such a coalition. That means it doesn't even need to be coy about what it's doing (as we are seeing with Hong Kong). So yeah, I agree that in 2019 and 2020 the US and Eu/Britain couldn't have done anything meaningful, but what's happening right now is heavily caused by the US' pulling out of the world stage leading up to it.

swordsmith 6y ago
> China knows that no other country has the influence to form such a coalition. That means it doesn't even need to be coy about what it's doing At least now that CCP is showing its true colors, the world is more aware of its threat.

markvdb 6y ago

> What? What could the US have done beyond what we did other than all out war? The US response to this was very harsh. Signing the TPP could have helped _a lot_. DT gave China _a lot_ of diplomatic leverage there, for free...

mensetmanusman 6y ago
Both parties were getting out of the TPP, because a deal was made that helped the rich but ‘hurt’ China.