Changes in agriculture and water availability will absolutely cause wars. Some of the current conflicts already have some muddy influences from climate change.

Changes in agriculture and water availability will absolutely cause wars. Some of the current conflicts already have some muddy influences from climate change. They'll get more common and the cause-and-effect will become progressively more obvious, though there's rarely any conflict that can be traced to just one cause. The most likely way it'll look for the near future is climate change will put more stress on existing societies, making it more likely for violence to break out. This is similar to what we are seeing, and will see more obviously in the future with extreme weather events (hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, flooding, etc.). It will be difficult to trace any one in particular to climate change, but they'll become more common on the whole.