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This is a fascinating discussion because it hits directly at a topic that civilization-after-civilization has faced throughout history: are we able to reasonabl

This is a fascinating discussion because it hits directly at a topic that civilization-after-civilization has faced throughout history: are we able to reasonably assess whether we are continuing towards growth and progress or stagnation and extinction? Frankly, the historical record is not encouraging. Usually, when this topic comes up people chime in with easy takeaways like "people have always complained about this, and it rarely amounted to anything", "look at this thing that happened recently that's never happened before. It's proof that we're doing better than any other civilization ever has", or "things have not been going according to my value system, therefore doom is approaching!" It's possible to cite example-after-example of these phrases coming up when the conversation happens in the historical record. And yet. And yet at times civilizations do die, and there was plenty of warning while it was happening. The problem is that denial and complaceny is tough to fight. When the Emperors took over Rome, it kept the Senate around. They gradually stopped having power, but by keeping them around, it was possible for the illusion of things staying the same to remain. People, with the very smallest prodding, are more than happy to believe that everything is as good as it used to be, plus there's all this new cool stuff we've never seen before! Hell, ask a few people when the Western Roman Empire ended. Good luck with that. There are folks who will tell you it never did end. If you're that far in denial, how could you ever reason from your current historical position to the long run? Many times I think conversations like this are much more interesting by the types of responses you get than the actual merits of the case presented. If our civilization is entering the great 1984/Brave New World Fizzle, I can tell you with certainty that there will be fierce denial that such a thing is occurring. Just like always.

mrmonkeyman 6y ago
Few people deny the Western empire ended. The East however..
mothsonasloth 6y ago
I for one look forward to our new techno-barbarian conquerers pouring out from Steppe.
- 082349872349872 6y ago
  did you mean these guys? (techno tree advanced) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc&t=27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc&t=27 or these? (techno genre) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FteYOA2cDkg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FteYOA2cDkg (they're evidently sweeping out of the steppe in all directions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvW8JEuIo58 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvW8JEuIo58 )
  - chuckledog 6y ago
    Awesome to hear Kargyraa throatsinging again! Hadn’t heard this since Paul Pena / Genghis Blues. Music transcends culture...
  - Balgair 6y ago
    If the fall of civilization means more 'songs' from The Hu, then maybe things won't be so bad.
tumblerz 6y ago
I like your style. I recently read "Decadent Society" as part of a binge on what another commenter calls "conservative intellectual" literature of the past couple of years. I'm not sure Douthat really makes a great case for his thesis but there is, to me, a sort of haunting note of truth to it--a sense of your "Fizzle" having entered a feedback loop that is difficult to ascertain from the inside. Since I did march through the literature binge, I'll add that some conservative authors are quite a bit more pointed in their analyses than is Douthat. "Age of Entitlement," and "Return of the Strong Gods" are two titles that come to mind.
Chris2048 6y ago
I think the main questions are: - How fast can we respond (provide a solution) to problem <x> - What are our dependencies, and how does it affect our ability to respond to problems <X> Or in other words, we run out of things, or encounter problems we cannot adapt to.
leetcrew 6y ago
> Hell, ask a few people when the Western Roman Empire ended. Good luck with that. There are folks who will tell you it never did end. If you're that far in denial, how could you ever reason from your current historical position to the long run? AFAIK, the argument over when the western empire fell is not so much about the facts, so much as the meaning of the word "fall". it's inherently arbitrary to point to the "end" of a civilization with routine violent regime changes, varying degrees of centralized control, continuous contraction/expansion of borders, and cultural/ethnic mixing from the territories. everything we think of as "roman" was constantly in flux. if you look solely at centralized political/military power, the western empire clearly fell in the late 400s AD. if you look at cultural influence, you might argue it lives on today in the catholic church.
- Funes- 6y ago
  >cultural/ethnic mixing Those two, as far as I know, are the same thing. I know biological "race" has some negative connotations, but I guess you could also say "ecotype" to refer to roughly the same thing, which I reckon was what you were trying to do--correct me if I'm wrong.
  - leetcrew 6y ago
    I think culture and ethnicity are not exactly the same, but I couldn't tell you specifically what the difference is. I don't mean anything terribly specific here, just looking for a convenient way to express the set of things that are different between one group of people and another, aside from the political borders they happen to live within. as a weird example, if china conquered half of france, we would still consider the people that lived there to be french, not chinese. if a single chinese family moved to france, we would probably consider them to be french after a certain number of generations. but if many chinese families moved to france and integrated with the existing society, we would consider that society to be not entirely french or chinese, but something new.
voldacar 6y ago
It is interesting to note that if you read Roman generals' letters from the fourth/fifth centuries AD, they seem like they have no idea that their civilization is in the late stages of decline, something totally easy for us to recognize millennia later. It's weird and uncanny, and kind of concerning given contemporary circumstances
- Ericson2314 6y ago
  Actually, that's reassuring. Virtually everyone agrees we are in a state of decline right now.
  - treeman79 6y ago
    Covid aside, which is self inflicted, I highly disagree.
    - Voliokis 6y ago
      Funny, I agree with him because of things like Covid being self-inflicted. We're so unable, as a species, to avoid even known risks (yes, we've known about the risk of new Coronaviruses since SARS), prepare for them, or deal with them when they've actually occurred. Even now, a not insignificant part of the US population thinks Covid is a hoax. Or that climate change is a hoax. We're reaching a point where catastrophic failure is just a stone's throw away, and we're already seeing the system buckle (rise of the Republican's hold over Congress, the rise of Trump, the rise of far right activists across Europe, growing environmental issues causing things like surges of refugees and civil war, unrest across the globe, etc.). It's only going to get worse from here as problems go unsolved and people's suffering grows.
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        Respectfully, politicians you don't like gaining power isn't evidence of the system buckling. The other issues aren't exactly unconcerning, but I think we have to acknowledge that this is a quite peaceful time. For most of history, what we call "unrest" was the status quo, and there were in addition wars of open territorial conquest which are nearly extinct today.
zwkrt 6y ago
> growth and progress or stagnation and extinction? A false dichotomy, since humans are uniquely able to harmonize with any environment through observation and planning. The need to buy stuff is the only reason we think of “progress or stagnation”
seneca 6y ago
Coincidentally enough, today is actually the anniversary of the deposition of the last Roman Emperor in the west, Romulus Augustus. That happened on September 4th 476.
pjc50 6y ago
A lot of this stuff is just ship-of-Theseus for politics; institutions and power structures gradually break down and are replaced piecemeal with other ones, making it difficult to identify a cutoff date. Not only that, what are the boundaries of "our" "civilization" - what's not ours, and what's not civilization?
- DanielBMarkham 6y ago
  Trying to stay at a meta level, this discussion is almost intractable _because_ of the issue of definitions. It reminds me of the SCOTUS 1964 case for obscenity, where one justice notes "I'll know it when I see it" [1] You can look at, say, Western Europe after 700AD or so and see that things are not as good as they were 500 years before, but it's quite arguable which (if any) of those things constitutes a "decline" Charlemagne, after all, was crowned (among many other things) "Emperor of the Romans" [2] In fact, even during its heyday, the Roman Empire defied defied definitions. Were you Latin? Roman? A citizen? These and other terms all meant different things as the civilization progressed. There was almost a determined effort to keep shifting definitions around such that the Roman Empire never died. In fact, IIRC, there's a 60 Minutes segment where they interview some Greek monks living on an island. The flag they're flying? The flag of the Byzantine Empire, of course. (Also, the word "byzantine" is mostly our own invention. They considered themselves thoroughly Roman) Having said all of that, it's completely obvious to any outside observer that major changes occurred, many of which had a negative impact on the population. So something happened. Until one starts in with definitions of what exactly constitutes a valid OEM part for our Theseusian ship and what doesn't, folks are free to completely ignore the discussion, no matter how bad things get. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne
lcall 6y ago
I think the solution is for individuals to choose a purpose to life that is not selfish or destructive; i.e., something good more than pleasure, power, or attention. I have written extensive suggestions with supporting detail, for whether one is religious or not, I hope in a skimmable way at my simple-tech site: http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854588981.html http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854588981.html (If downvoting, a thoughtful comment is appreciated; thank you.)

mrmonkeyman 6y ago

Few people deny the Western empire ended. The East however..

mothsonasloth 6y ago

I for one look forward to our new techno-barbarian conquerers pouring out from Steppe.

082349872349872 6y ago
did you mean these guys? (techno tree advanced) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc&t=27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc&t=27 or these? (techno genre) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FteYOA2cDkg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FteYOA2cDkg (they're evidently sweeping out of the steppe in all directions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvW8JEuIo58 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvW8JEuIo58 )
- chuckledog 6y ago
  Awesome to hear Kargyraa throatsinging again! Hadn’t heard this since Paul Pena / Genghis Blues. Music transcends culture...
- Balgair 6y ago
  If the fall of civilization means more 'songs' from The Hu, then maybe things won't be so bad.

tumblerz 6y ago

I like your style. I recently read "Decadent Society" as part of a binge on what another commenter calls "conservative intellectual" literature of the past couple of years. I'm not sure Douthat really makes a great case for his thesis but there is, to me, a sort of haunting note of truth to it--a sense of your "Fizzle" having entered a feedback loop that is difficult to ascertain from the inside. Since I did march through the literature binge, I'll add that some conservative authors are quite a bit more pointed in their analyses than is Douthat. "Age of Entitlement," and "Return of the Strong Gods" are two titles that come to mind.

Chris2048 6y ago

I think the main questions are: - How fast can we respond (provide a solution) to problem <x> - What are our dependencies, and how does it affect our ability to respond to problems <X> Or in other words, we run out of things, or encounter problems we cannot adapt to.

leetcrew 6y ago

> Hell, ask a few people when the Western Roman Empire ended. Good luck with that. There are folks who will tell you it never did end. If you're that far in denial, how could you ever reason from your current historical position to the long run? AFAIK, the argument over when the western empire fell is not so much about the facts, so much as the meaning of the word "fall". it's inherently arbitrary to point to the "end" of a civilization with routine violent regime changes, varying degrees of centralized control, continuous contraction/expansion of borders, and cultural/ethnic mixing from the territories. everything we think of as "roman" was constantly in flux. if you look solely at centralized political/military power, the western empire clearly fell in the late 400s AD. if you look at cultural influence, you might argue it lives on today in the catholic church.

Funes- 6y ago
>cultural/ethnic mixing Those two, as far as I know, are the same thing. I know biological "race" has some negative connotations, but I guess you could also say "ecotype" to refer to roughly the same thing, which I reckon was what you were trying to do--correct me if I'm wrong.
- leetcrew 6y ago
  I think culture and ethnicity are not exactly the same, but I couldn't tell you specifically what the difference is. I don't mean anything terribly specific here, just looking for a convenient way to express the set of things that are different between one group of people and another, aside from the political borders they happen to live within. as a weird example, if china conquered half of france, we would still consider the people that lived there to be french, not chinese. if a single chinese family moved to france, we would probably consider them to be french after a certain number of generations. but if many chinese families moved to france and integrated with the existing society, we would consider that society to be not entirely french or chinese, but something new.

voldacar 6y ago

It is interesting to note that if you read Roman generals' letters from the fourth/fifth centuries AD, they seem like they have no idea that their civilization is in the late stages of decline, something totally easy for us to recognize millennia later. It's weird and uncanny, and kind of concerning given contemporary circumstances

Ericson2314 6y ago
Actually, that's reassuring. Virtually everyone agrees we are in a state of decline right now.
- treeman79 6y ago
  Covid aside, which is self inflicted, I highly disagree.
  - Voliokis 6y ago
    Funny, I agree with him because of things like Covid being self-inflicted. We're so unable, as a species, to avoid even known risks (yes, we've known about the risk of new Coronaviruses since SARS), prepare for them, or deal with them when they've actually occurred. Even now, a not insignificant part of the US population thinks Covid is a hoax. Or that climate change is a hoax. We're reaching a point where catastrophic failure is just a stone's throw away, and we're already seeing the system buckle (rise of the Republican's hold over Congress, the rise of Trump, the rise of far right activists across Europe, growing environmental issues causing things like surges of refugees and civil war, unrest across the globe, etc.). It's only going to get worse from here as problems go unsolved and people's suffering grows.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      Respectfully, politicians you don't like gaining power isn't evidence of the system buckling. The other issues aren't exactly unconcerning, but I think we have to acknowledge that this is a quite peaceful time. For most of history, what we call "unrest" was the status quo, and there were in addition wars of open territorial conquest which are nearly extinct today.

zwkrt 6y ago

> growth and progress or stagnation and extinction? A false dichotomy, since humans are uniquely able to harmonize with any environment through observation and planning. The need to buy stuff is the only reason we think of “progress or stagnation”

seneca 6y ago

Coincidentally enough, today is actually the anniversary of the deposition of the last Roman Emperor in the west, Romulus Augustus. That happened on September 4th 476.

pjc50 6y ago

A lot of this stuff is just ship-of-Theseus for politics; institutions and power structures gradually break down and are replaced piecemeal with other ones, making it difficult to identify a cutoff date. Not only that, what are the boundaries of "our" "civilization" - what's not ours, and what's not civilization?

DanielBMarkham 6y ago
Trying to stay at a meta level, this discussion is almost intractable _because_ of the issue of definitions. It reminds me of the SCOTUS 1964 case for obscenity, where one justice notes "I'll know it when I see it" [1] You can look at, say, Western Europe after 700AD or so and see that things are not as good as they were 500 years before, but it's quite arguable which (if any) of those things constitutes a "decline" Charlemagne, after all, was crowned (among many other things) "Emperor of the Romans" [2] In fact, even during its heyday, the Roman Empire defied defied definitions. Were you Latin? Roman? A citizen? These and other terms all meant different things as the civilization progressed. There was almost a determined effort to keep shifting definitions around such that the Roman Empire never died. In fact, IIRC, there's a 60 Minutes segment where they interview some Greek monks living on an island. The flag they're flying? The flag of the Byzantine Empire, of course. (Also, the word "byzantine" is mostly our own invention. They considered themselves thoroughly Roman) Having said all of that, it's completely obvious to any outside observer that major changes occurred, many of which had a negative impact on the population. So something happened. Until one starts in with definitions of what exactly constitutes a valid OEM part for our Theseusian ship and what doesn't, folks are free to completely ignore the discussion, no matter how bad things get. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne

lcall 6y ago

I think the solution is for individuals to choose a purpose to life that is not selfish or destructive; i.e., something good more than pleasure, power, or attention. I have written extensive suggestions with supporting detail, for whether one is religious or not, I hope in a skimmable way at my simple-tech site: http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854588981.html http://lukecall.net/e-9223372036854588981.html (If downvoting, a thoughtful comment is appreciated; thank you.)