3 ms·
"That's 330 million people, 65% exposed, and 1% death rate." These are questionable assumptions. Herd immunity thresholds seem to be closer to 20-40%: https:/
by timr 6y ago
"That's 330 million people, 65% exposed, and 1% death rate."
These are questionable assumptions. Herd immunity thresholds seem to be closer to 20-40%:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.08142.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.08142.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v...
Moreover, fatality rates are not 1%. Current best estimates are ~0.6%, overall, with a strong dependence on age:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext#figures https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...
The young (i.e. those under 30), in particular, are at almost no risk of death:
https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/article?contentPath=html%2Fftthinks%2Fen-us-retail%2Fcio-views%2Fon-my-mind-they-blinded-us-from-science.html https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/article?contentPa...
"Keep in mind that 9% of people have suffered a crippling illness that lasts several months."
There is no evidence for such a claim. If you're referring to the people who spend time in ICUs, on ventilators, etc., these people represent a small fraction of the most severe examples of known infections (i.e. less than 9%), which themselves represent only about 1/10th-1/20th of the total number of infections:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/comm...
The vast majority of people have mild illness, akin to a cold.
- lbeltrame 6y agoI think the OP referred to the pneumonia-like consequences (weakened immune system, issues with lungs that can last for months), effects common with certain strong viral infections (chronic fatigue) and other effects (circulatory problems, thrombosis). Note that the first two categories are not exclusive to this virus at all: treatable diseases like "regular" pneumonia can cause them. The actual incidence of these effects, which can range from small to very severe, is unknown (given that a lot of cases are still missed). I've never heard about the 9% before, though.